I thought I would write an article for NL only leagues and explore possibilities of real good to big AL players coming over to the NL via trade during this season. I am here to tell you it's not looking good and I wouldn't count on any help from the AL. Here is the possibilities I can see.
Minnesota:
The Twins are in a rebuild mode even though they are just 1 game under .500 at this point and time. The Twins won't have a lot to dangle but Justin Morneau is a free agent after the season and the Twins hope he is having a big injury free year come late July so they can get a prospect or two for him. Morneau staying healthy is a big IF. Morneau is having a strange year for him as he is hitting .306 so far but only has 2HR's. Granted that a tough park to hit in and the weather in Minnesota so far this season has been rough.
Seattle:
Mike Morse is a free agent for the M's after the season. Morse hit his 10th HR of the season at Yankee stadium last night. The M's would have to be out of the wild card race and feel like they have no chance to resign Morse as the M's need a bat like his in their lineup.
Toronto:
The Blue Jays were picked by many to win the AL East and be one of the big teams in baseball. As of this morning the Blue Jays are 17-24 and are 8 games behind the 1st place Yankees however the Blue Jays have won 4 in a row. The Blue Jays need to start playing well because they have work to do just to get back to .500. If the Blue Jays do not get it together and are not in the race come July with the amount of dollars the Blue Jays invested they might look to move some salary. Josh Johnson who is extremely talented but is just an injury waiting to happen at all times is a free agent after the season. Johnson is currently dealing with a triceps injury and is probably will stay on the DL until at least the end of May. I have read some speculation by various big baseball insiders also that if things go south for the Jays maybe they would move RA Dickey come July. Again I don't expect this to happen as the bottom has to really fall out for the Jays to consider these moves.
White Sox:
They nearly won the division last year and they got off to a bit of a slow start with an 18-21 record but have won their last 3 in a row. It's a tough division as by most accounts Detroit is considered one of the top teams in the AL if not the best, Kansas City & Cleveland are very competitive and have a good chance to be above .500 as well. Again if things go south for the Sox then they could look to move Paul Konerko who is a free agent after the season but keep in mind he is a 10-5 man so he has a no trade clause & has been in Chicago since 1999 so I don't know if he would agree to a trade. Then there is Jake Peavy who is off to an excellent start this season BUT Peavy who has dealt with a ton of injuries in his career is making 14.5 Million this year & next so other than the Dodgers who would be willing to take on that money?
Of course there is always the expected that can happen but as you can see not looking good of a big AL player coming to the NL. Okay I am taking the weekend off from writing, so everyone have a good weekend.
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NL King - C.Lizza
Friday, May 17, 2013
Thursday, May 16, 2013
NL King - Checking in on Prospects
Back in March I wrote an article profiling on a bunch of prospects who were in position to make the opening day rosters and then prospects to expect a call-up to see at least a good amount of time during the season. To review J.Gyorko, S.Miller, W.Peralta, T.Rosenthal. H.Ryu & J.Teheran all made the opening day roster. A.Eaton was slated to make the opening day roster but a late Spring Training injury shelved him and he is still working his way back.
Nolan Arenado got called up a couple of weeks ago and is off to a solid start and will be Rockies everyday 3B the rest of the way. Didi Gregorius got called up in mid April and has been very impressive not just in the field but with the bat. Gregorius might make GM Kevin Towers look like a genius. Finally Tony Cingrani also got called up in mid April due to an injury to Johnny Cueto and has been impressive but he might be sent down to AAA next week with Cueto coming back and the Reds leaning to staying with status quo in terms of their rotation. I would not be surprised to see Cingrani come back to the Reds in the short term due to another injury or lack of performance by someone. So that leaves the rest of the list and I thought I would do an update to show how their season is going and when & if we can expect them to come up to the show. This list is in alphabetical order.
Gerrit Cole - Pitt - SP - (AAA) 3-1, 2.55 ERA, 1.18 Ratio, 31K in 42 1/3 IP.
One of the top prospects in baseball (Ranked 7th overall in Baseball America Top 100 in Feb) and is off to a very good start in AAA. As long as Cole keeps progressing and given the Pirates rotation I expect Cole to be in the majors no later than the all-star break.
Travis D'Arnaud - NY - C (AAA) 1HR, 8RBI, 12R, 0SB, .250 Avg - only played in 12 games.
D'Arnaud in another freak injury is sidelined with a foot injury. I expect him back in Vegas sometime in July and that could work out well with the Mets trading John Buck late July and have D'Arnaud take over then, provided he does not get injured again.
JR Graham - Atl - SP (AA) 1-3, 4.04 ERA, 1.37 Ratio, 28K in 35 2/3 IP.
Won't be apart of the Braves until summer of 2014.
Billi Hamilton - Cinn - OF (AAA) - 2HR, 12RBI, 21R, 21SB, .284 Avg
He is learning a new position in CF and because of that and given the Reds roster I wouldn't expect Hamilton to be part of the Reds until as a September call-up. Hamilton needs to work on his game playing CF and cutting down the K's (27 in 36 games).
Casey Kelly - SD - SP - Had Tommy John surgery in early April so he is out for this season and most likely won't see him in the majors until July of next year. Good news is Kelly is only 23.
Darin Ruf - Phil - OF - (AAA) 5HR, 22RBI, 21R, 1SB, .290 Avg
Seems to me this guy deserves a chance to play to see what he has with the big club. If Phillies are not part of the wild card contention for the 2nd half he will definitely be given a chance to show if he belongs.
Tyler Skaggs - Arz - SP - (AAA) 2-5, 6.21 ERA, 1.51 Ratio, 39K in 37 2/3 IP
Skaggs is off to a very rough start in AAA and right now with the way Patrick Corbin is producing there isn't an opening to consider. Keep in mind Skaggs is just 21 so he might stay in the minors all year.
Oscar Taveras - Stl - OF (AAA) 4HR, 20RBI, 17R, 5SB, .317 Avg.
Was ranked by Baseball America as the 3rd best prospect in MLB in February on their top 100 list. Cards are hoping he will be a huge part of their future but given Cards roster he will need a injury to happen to see significant time this year in St.Louis.
Zack Wheeler - NY - SP (AAA) 2-1, 3.74 ERA, 1.34 Ratio, 47K in 43 1/3 IP.
Another huge prospect (#11 on BA Top 100) but has just been okay in AAA. Mets envision him and Harvey being future aces so they will not rush him. I would not expect to see Wheeler until he starts dominating in AAA so I am thinking sometime in July.
Kolten Wong - Stl - 2B (AAA) 1HR, 13RBI, 22R, 5SB, .309 Avg
Could be Cards future 2B and projects as a nice player could get an opportunity in the near future given certain circumstances with the big club.
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NL King - C.Lizza
Nolan Arenado got called up a couple of weeks ago and is off to a solid start and will be Rockies everyday 3B the rest of the way. Didi Gregorius got called up in mid April and has been very impressive not just in the field but with the bat. Gregorius might make GM Kevin Towers look like a genius. Finally Tony Cingrani also got called up in mid April due to an injury to Johnny Cueto and has been impressive but he might be sent down to AAA next week with Cueto coming back and the Reds leaning to staying with status quo in terms of their rotation. I would not be surprised to see Cingrani come back to the Reds in the short term due to another injury or lack of performance by someone. So that leaves the rest of the list and I thought I would do an update to show how their season is going and when & if we can expect them to come up to the show. This list is in alphabetical order.
Gerrit Cole - Pitt - SP - (AAA) 3-1, 2.55 ERA, 1.18 Ratio, 31K in 42 1/3 IP.
One of the top prospects in baseball (Ranked 7th overall in Baseball America Top 100 in Feb) and is off to a very good start in AAA. As long as Cole keeps progressing and given the Pirates rotation I expect Cole to be in the majors no later than the all-star break.
Travis D'Arnaud - NY - C (AAA) 1HR, 8RBI, 12R, 0SB, .250 Avg - only played in 12 games.
D'Arnaud in another freak injury is sidelined with a foot injury. I expect him back in Vegas sometime in July and that could work out well with the Mets trading John Buck late July and have D'Arnaud take over then, provided he does not get injured again.
JR Graham - Atl - SP (AA) 1-3, 4.04 ERA, 1.37 Ratio, 28K in 35 2/3 IP.
Won't be apart of the Braves until summer of 2014.
Billi Hamilton - Cinn - OF (AAA) - 2HR, 12RBI, 21R, 21SB, .284 Avg
He is learning a new position in CF and because of that and given the Reds roster I wouldn't expect Hamilton to be part of the Reds until as a September call-up. Hamilton needs to work on his game playing CF and cutting down the K's (27 in 36 games).
Casey Kelly - SD - SP - Had Tommy John surgery in early April so he is out for this season and most likely won't see him in the majors until July of next year. Good news is Kelly is only 23.
Darin Ruf - Phil - OF - (AAA) 5HR, 22RBI, 21R, 1SB, .290 Avg
Seems to me this guy deserves a chance to play to see what he has with the big club. If Phillies are not part of the wild card contention for the 2nd half he will definitely be given a chance to show if he belongs.
Tyler Skaggs - Arz - SP - (AAA) 2-5, 6.21 ERA, 1.51 Ratio, 39K in 37 2/3 IP
Skaggs is off to a very rough start in AAA and right now with the way Patrick Corbin is producing there isn't an opening to consider. Keep in mind Skaggs is just 21 so he might stay in the minors all year.
Oscar Taveras - Stl - OF (AAA) 4HR, 20RBI, 17R, 5SB, .317 Avg.
Was ranked by Baseball America as the 3rd best prospect in MLB in February on their top 100 list. Cards are hoping he will be a huge part of their future but given Cards roster he will need a injury to happen to see significant time this year in St.Louis.
Zack Wheeler - NY - SP (AAA) 2-1, 3.74 ERA, 1.34 Ratio, 47K in 43 1/3 IP.
Another huge prospect (#11 on BA Top 100) but has just been okay in AAA. Mets envision him and Harvey being future aces so they will not rush him. I would not expect to see Wheeler until he starts dominating in AAA so I am thinking sometime in July.
Kolten Wong - Stl - 2B (AAA) 1HR, 13RBI, 22R, 5SB, .309 Avg
Could be Cards future 2B and projects as a nice player could get an opportunity in the near future given certain circumstances with the big club.
Follow me on Twitter @ TheNLKing
NL King - C.Lizza
Wednesday, May 15, 2013
NL King - Segura What Did I Miss?
Okay what did I miss with Jean Segura ? I mean I read a lot of the preview magazines, read as many articles on-line on the upcoming season and they all said the same thing about the Brewers Starting Shortstop Jean Segura. Projects to be a nice fantasy player with speed, decent to good average and not a lot of pop and will start the season hitting towards the bottom of the lineup. Nowhere did it make comparisons to a young Alex Rodriguez of the Seattle Mariners or no one said Segura has sleeper breakout potential.
Going into last season Segura was considered a very good prospect as he was ranked 55th on Baseball America Top 100 for 2012. Segura had a good year in AA last year before getting traded to the Brewers in the Zack Greinke deal where he went 7HR, 44RBI, 57R, 37SB, .304 Avg. Segura finished the season with the Brewers last year and in 148AB's had 0HR, 14RBI, 19R, 7SB, .264 Avg. This year so far Segura is not just showing great stolen base potential but he is creaming the ball as Segura has 16 extra base hits and as of this morning his stat line is 7HR, 18RBI, 21R, 13SB, .359 Avg. Segura due to early season injuries got a chance to hit towards the top of the lineup and is running with the better placement in the lineup. Keep in the mind in the minors Segura never hit more than 10HR's in a season & in 102 Games last year in AA Segura had 25 extra base hits. In 36 games so far this year at the major league level like I said he has 16. What the heck happened here? No one saw this coming anywhere. The Brewers are so convinced that Segura is the real deal that they are talking long term contract with him even though he is not arbitration eligible until 2016. This is another example of how now every season in fantasy baseball they are so many unexplained situations with players both in a positive manner and a negative one. If you were lucky enough to draft Segura good for you.
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NL King - C.Lizza
Going into last season Segura was considered a very good prospect as he was ranked 55th on Baseball America Top 100 for 2012. Segura had a good year in AA last year before getting traded to the Brewers in the Zack Greinke deal where he went 7HR, 44RBI, 57R, 37SB, .304 Avg. Segura finished the season with the Brewers last year and in 148AB's had 0HR, 14RBI, 19R, 7SB, .264 Avg. This year so far Segura is not just showing great stolen base potential but he is creaming the ball as Segura has 16 extra base hits and as of this morning his stat line is 7HR, 18RBI, 21R, 13SB, .359 Avg. Segura due to early season injuries got a chance to hit towards the top of the lineup and is running with the better placement in the lineup. Keep in the mind in the minors Segura never hit more than 10HR's in a season & in 102 Games last year in AA Segura had 25 extra base hits. In 36 games so far this year at the major league level like I said he has 16. What the heck happened here? No one saw this coming anywhere. The Brewers are so convinced that Segura is the real deal that they are talking long term contract with him even though he is not arbitration eligible until 2016. This is another example of how now every season in fantasy baseball they are so many unexplained situations with players both in a positive manner and a negative one. If you were lucky enough to draft Segura good for you.
Follow me on Twitter @ TheNLKing
NL King - C.Lizza
Tuesday, May 14, 2013
NL King - NL Trade Bait to Watch
Something to keep in mind if you are in NL only leagues and either have these players on your own roster or maybe looking at acquiring them to add to your team in the short term. I am going to break down each team that I think will either definitely be sellers or could be sellers this year.
Could Be Sellers:
Brewers:
Brewers are team that tries to stay as competitive as possible even though they are a mid market team. They did lose Fielder & Greinke although they tried to keep them both & this spring they signed Kyle Lohse to a 3 year deal. However the Brewers have holes on their team and if there young starters do not come through they could use more depth in the rotation and their bullpen is a disaster. So if they are out of contention come late July for a wild card spot they will be sellers.
Corey Hart - Hart is only 31 so he has a few good years left in him but he is a free agent after the season. Hart should come off the DL in late May - early June and there is a good chance he winds up resigning with the Brewers. But if the Brewers feel they can't resign him and they are out of contention for a wild card spot come late July he will be moved.
Padres:
I don't expect the Padres to be in contention but given their team I do not see a lot of choices other than Chase Headley and Houston Street.
Chase Headley - Headley is looking like the player he was last year and at least publicly the Padres are saying they want to Headley to be a Padre for life. Headley and his agent have said they will not talk contract during the season. I think the Padres will take the stance with Headley like the Marlins with Stanton just a touch different. The Padres will wait until the off-season and make a big push to sign Headley who at that point will be 1 year away from free agency. If the Padres feel they cannot sign Headley they will trade him at the next Winter Meetings. Again every team can be a part of the discussion and every team will have a lot of roster flexibility at that point. However if someone wows the Padres come July for Headley they will most certainly take a very hard look at that, but it would have to be a major package otherwise I believe they will wait until the off-season.
Houston Street - He is signed through next season 2014 but when your a bad team a closer is way down the list. The Padres also have Luke Gregerson who could take over as closer. They will not give Street away but if a team comes up with a good package that might be to hard to the Friars to resist.
Phillies:
The Phillies could make a run to at least stay in contention for one of the wild card spots and if that is the case they won't even think about selling. However if the bottom starts to fall out then the Phillies might realize it's time to regroup. Last week although he has been terrible it seems they have lost Roy Halladay for at least a considerable amount of time. Here are their candidates.
Cliff Lee - They would probably love to move him and he is still a front line guy BUT at age 34 between this season and the next 2 years (signed through 2015) Lee is owed 87.5 million. That's nearly 30 million a year that's going to be almost impossible to move. Lee also has a limited 9 team no trade clause.
Jimmy Rollins - Still effective and signed through at least next season 2014 and has a vesting option for 2015 that could kick in for 11 million dollars if Rollins stays healthy. However Rollins has a no trade clause because he is a 10-5 man so he isn't going anywhere without his permission. Rollins is from Oakland so maybe he be willing to go to a California team.
Carlos Ruiz - He is a free agent after the season (34 years old) but honestly not a huge rebuild chip for Phillies.
Chase Utley - He is also a free agent after the season and is 34 years old. Utley is off to a very good start but between his no trade clause (10-5 man as well) and his beat up body going to be tough to move Utley and get a good return for him.
Michael Young - A free agent after the season I believe he also has a no trade clause and there is only so much the Phils would get for him.
Rockies:
Right now the Rockies are above .500 and like the Brewers as long as they are in contention for at least a wild card spot they will not be sellers. But honestly with their starting rotation I have a hard time seeing them staying in contention for even a wild card spot. But you never know.
Rafael Betancourt - He has been excellent as the Rockies closer since last year but he is 37 and will most certainly be a free agent after the season (4.25 million mutual option). Given his salary a lot of teams will be interested in Betancourt to bolster their bullpen and the Rocks should get a nice prospect or two for him.
Michael Cuddyer - A real good bat and he could really help someone especially an AL team where he could DH. However Cuddyer is a guy who has a lot of bumps and bruises on him, he is 34 and he is signed through next season at 11 million dollars per year. The Rockies have plenty of bats on the main roster and in fact they just called up Charlie Blackmon who is a good looking young player if he can stay healthy and they still have Tyler Colvin in AAA and all he did last year was hit .290 and have 18HR & 70+RBI in a little over 400AB's.
Jorge De La Rosa - Off to a fantastic start and as long as he De La Rosa is having a very good season and stays healthy the Rocks should be able to get a couple of good prospects for him come July.
Will be Sellers:
Cubs:
Theo Epstein knew when taking the team over he was at the start of a rebuilding program.
Matt Garza - In the final year of his deal and when healthy he is a front line starting pitcher. Should be off the DL and back in the Cubs rotation sometime next week. Cubs are hoping that Garza pitches like the front end guy he is and stays healthy for the next 2 months and trade him for the best deal they can get come late July. If that pans out their will be a lot of suitors.
Carlos Marmol - In the final year of his deal and making 9.6 million this season. Cubs will have to hope for a hot streak between now and the trade deadline, be willing to pay part of his contract to be able to get a raw low level prospect.
Alfonso Soriano - Soriano is making 18 million both this year & next and the Cubs want to move to him to open a spot for their younger players. Soriano does have a no trade clause but would move it for certain teams. The Cubs will have to hope that Soriano has a power year like last season, find an AL team desperate for a bat, be willing to eat a significant portion of the contract and expect back at best a couple of low level raw prospects.
Marlins:
The Marlins are in business to sell players.
Rickey Nolasco - Off to a nice start to the season and is a free agent after this year. The Marlins will definitely move him and that might do it way sooner that the end of July and take advantage when Nolasco is pitching well and strike when the iron is hot.
Giancarlo Stanton - Currently on the DL and unless some team blows away the Marlins with a huge package I don't believe the Marlins will look to trade Stanton until the off-season. Stanton is only making $537,000 and does not become arbitration eligible until after the season. Also in the off-season you can get every team involved and have every team have a lot more flexibility in terms of what they can give up. I believe Stanton owners are safe for the 2013 season in terms of Stanton not getting traded.
Mets:
Still have a lot of work to do as they do not have enough quality players.
John Buck - Do not be fooled Travis D'Arnaud as long as he stops getting these freak injuries is the Mets catcher of the future and that future should start in August. Buck is off to a ridiculous start but come late July the Mets will hope Buck is continuing to have a career year and be able to trade him for a good young player or two.
Follow me on Twitter @ TheNLKing
NL King - C.Lizza
Could Be Sellers:
Brewers:
Brewers are team that tries to stay as competitive as possible even though they are a mid market team. They did lose Fielder & Greinke although they tried to keep them both & this spring they signed Kyle Lohse to a 3 year deal. However the Brewers have holes on their team and if there young starters do not come through they could use more depth in the rotation and their bullpen is a disaster. So if they are out of contention come late July for a wild card spot they will be sellers.
Corey Hart - Hart is only 31 so he has a few good years left in him but he is a free agent after the season. Hart should come off the DL in late May - early June and there is a good chance he winds up resigning with the Brewers. But if the Brewers feel they can't resign him and they are out of contention for a wild card spot come late July he will be moved.
Padres:
I don't expect the Padres to be in contention but given their team I do not see a lot of choices other than Chase Headley and Houston Street.
Chase Headley - Headley is looking like the player he was last year and at least publicly the Padres are saying they want to Headley to be a Padre for life. Headley and his agent have said they will not talk contract during the season. I think the Padres will take the stance with Headley like the Marlins with Stanton just a touch different. The Padres will wait until the off-season and make a big push to sign Headley who at that point will be 1 year away from free agency. If the Padres feel they cannot sign Headley they will trade him at the next Winter Meetings. Again every team can be a part of the discussion and every team will have a lot of roster flexibility at that point. However if someone wows the Padres come July for Headley they will most certainly take a very hard look at that, but it would have to be a major package otherwise I believe they will wait until the off-season.
Houston Street - He is signed through next season 2014 but when your a bad team a closer is way down the list. The Padres also have Luke Gregerson who could take over as closer. They will not give Street away but if a team comes up with a good package that might be to hard to the Friars to resist.
Phillies:
The Phillies could make a run to at least stay in contention for one of the wild card spots and if that is the case they won't even think about selling. However if the bottom starts to fall out then the Phillies might realize it's time to regroup. Last week although he has been terrible it seems they have lost Roy Halladay for at least a considerable amount of time. Here are their candidates.
Cliff Lee - They would probably love to move him and he is still a front line guy BUT at age 34 between this season and the next 2 years (signed through 2015) Lee is owed 87.5 million. That's nearly 30 million a year that's going to be almost impossible to move. Lee also has a limited 9 team no trade clause.
Jimmy Rollins - Still effective and signed through at least next season 2014 and has a vesting option for 2015 that could kick in for 11 million dollars if Rollins stays healthy. However Rollins has a no trade clause because he is a 10-5 man so he isn't going anywhere without his permission. Rollins is from Oakland so maybe he be willing to go to a California team.
Carlos Ruiz - He is a free agent after the season (34 years old) but honestly not a huge rebuild chip for Phillies.
Chase Utley - He is also a free agent after the season and is 34 years old. Utley is off to a very good start but between his no trade clause (10-5 man as well) and his beat up body going to be tough to move Utley and get a good return for him.
Michael Young - A free agent after the season I believe he also has a no trade clause and there is only so much the Phils would get for him.
Rockies:
Right now the Rockies are above .500 and like the Brewers as long as they are in contention for at least a wild card spot they will not be sellers. But honestly with their starting rotation I have a hard time seeing them staying in contention for even a wild card spot. But you never know.
Rafael Betancourt - He has been excellent as the Rockies closer since last year but he is 37 and will most certainly be a free agent after the season (4.25 million mutual option). Given his salary a lot of teams will be interested in Betancourt to bolster their bullpen and the Rocks should get a nice prospect or two for him.
Michael Cuddyer - A real good bat and he could really help someone especially an AL team where he could DH. However Cuddyer is a guy who has a lot of bumps and bruises on him, he is 34 and he is signed through next season at 11 million dollars per year. The Rockies have plenty of bats on the main roster and in fact they just called up Charlie Blackmon who is a good looking young player if he can stay healthy and they still have Tyler Colvin in AAA and all he did last year was hit .290 and have 18HR & 70+RBI in a little over 400AB's.
Jorge De La Rosa - Off to a fantastic start and as long as he De La Rosa is having a very good season and stays healthy the Rocks should be able to get a couple of good prospects for him come July.
Will be Sellers:
Cubs:
Theo Epstein knew when taking the team over he was at the start of a rebuilding program.
Matt Garza - In the final year of his deal and when healthy he is a front line starting pitcher. Should be off the DL and back in the Cubs rotation sometime next week. Cubs are hoping that Garza pitches like the front end guy he is and stays healthy for the next 2 months and trade him for the best deal they can get come late July. If that pans out their will be a lot of suitors.
Carlos Marmol - In the final year of his deal and making 9.6 million this season. Cubs will have to hope for a hot streak between now and the trade deadline, be willing to pay part of his contract to be able to get a raw low level prospect.
Alfonso Soriano - Soriano is making 18 million both this year & next and the Cubs want to move to him to open a spot for their younger players. Soriano does have a no trade clause but would move it for certain teams. The Cubs will have to hope that Soriano has a power year like last season, find an AL team desperate for a bat, be willing to eat a significant portion of the contract and expect back at best a couple of low level raw prospects.
Marlins:
The Marlins are in business to sell players.
Rickey Nolasco - Off to a nice start to the season and is a free agent after this year. The Marlins will definitely move him and that might do it way sooner that the end of July and take advantage when Nolasco is pitching well and strike when the iron is hot.
Giancarlo Stanton - Currently on the DL and unless some team blows away the Marlins with a huge package I don't believe the Marlins will look to trade Stanton until the off-season. Stanton is only making $537,000 and does not become arbitration eligible until after the season. Also in the off-season you can get every team involved and have every team have a lot more flexibility in terms of what they can give up. I believe Stanton owners are safe for the 2013 season in terms of Stanton not getting traded.
Mets:
Still have a lot of work to do as they do not have enough quality players.
John Buck - Do not be fooled Travis D'Arnaud as long as he stops getting these freak injuries is the Mets catcher of the future and that future should start in August. Buck is off to a ridiculous start but come late July the Mets will hope Buck is continuing to have a career year and be able to trade him for a good young player or two.
Follow me on Twitter @ TheNLKing
NL King - C.Lizza
Sunday, May 12, 2013
NL King - NY Islanders in Review & Going Forward
As all of you know this is a forum where we talk about Fantasy Baseball for NL Leagues. If you follow me on twitter you realize I am a very passionate New York Islanders fan. I am going to use today's article to write about the Islanders. This is a one time only deal for this season. Tomorrow morning there will be a new NL King article up talking about the possible trade candidates in the NL during this season. For those of you who read my articles and are a New York Islander Fan I hope you enjoy this.
Season In Review:
Going into this shortened 48 game season the Hockey News picked the New York Islanders to finish dead last in the Eastern Conference. In fact most publications or websites who made such proclamations had the Islanders finishing no better than 3rd worst in the Eastern Conference and probably heading to the draft with another top 5 or top 6 pick. The Isles the first 60% of the season were very competitive but had trouble putting together wins. Every time the Isles got close to .500 then would slip to 3 games under or so. Losing 3rd period leads was a big problem early in the season. It wasn't like the Islanders were getting blown out in fact I believe in the 48 game season the Isles were something like in 41 or 42 of their regular season games they headed into the 3rd period either tied or ahead. So the Isles were in pretty much in every game to say the least. But then from mid March on everything came together for this young team as the finished on an incredible run and made the playoffs for the 1st time since 2007. They of course drew the Penguins in the first round and they were an incredible underdog. After getting embarrassed and blown out in Game 1 the Islanders showed their talent, their resilience, their toughness both physically and mentally and played a great series. However they came up short by losing last night in Game 6 in OT after some bad luck on the tying goal by Paul Martin late in the 3rd deflecting off Frans Nielsen stick. While if you had asked any Islander before the season this is how this season would play out would you sign up for that, I would say 99% would not only sign up for it but be thrilled. I know I would've, however having said that last nights loss was a hit to the solar plexus and while I am extremely disappointed and this will stay with me for a couple of weeks I am extremely proud of the team and know really good days are ahead.
Going Forward:
Okay I am going to break down the big factors for the Isles going forward starting with this off-season.
Rick DiPietro:
It was clear early on this season that DiPietro could not compete at the NHL level. The Isles sent down DiPietro to Bridgeport to try and find his game. DiPietro in 18 games went 9-9 with a 2.93 GAA & .893 Save Percentage. While not horrible this is minor league hockey. He is a great kid and he does everything he can to be the best he can be but DiPietro due to a gigantic list of injuries is done. With the last lockout every team is given up to 2 Amnesty Buyouts to use between the beginning of this past season until the end of next season before July 1st. From a pure financial perspective I can not see how the New York Islanders and specifically owner Charles Wang does not buy out DiPietro. If the Isles do not use the Amnesty on DiPietro he is owed 36 million dollars over the next 8 years (4.5 Million per year) and of course it counts against the cap. If the Islanders use their Amnesty Buyout on DiPietro they owe him 24 million dollars over the next 15 years (1.6 Million per year) and it does not count against the cap. Cap situations aside from a pure financial perspective you have to use the buyout. An athlete that is finished that you can pay either 36 million over 8 years or 24 million over15 years what would you do?
Forwards:
The Isles have an excellent core of young forwards lead of course by Taveras (22), Bailey (23), Cizikas (22), Grabner (25), Martin (24), Okposo (25). The veterans of the Isles forwards are all still under 30 in C.McDonald (28), Moulson & Nielsen (29). The Isles have locked up long term Taveras, Grabner, Martin, Okposo & Nielsen. Josh Bailey is an RFA and everything really came together for him in the 2nd half of the season. Remember he missed the beginning of the season due to an injury from playing in the lockout. I believe it would make a lot of sense for Snow to lock up Bailey in a long term deal that works well for both the club and the player just like he did with Grabner, Okposo & Nielsen. I expect Brock Nelson (21), Anders Lee (22) & David Ullstrom (24) to be a part of the Isles 3rd and 4th lines giving them incredible depth. UFA forwards for the Isles are Reasoner, Aucoin, Boulton and these were stop gap guys until the young forwards were truly ready so I doubt they will be back. That leaves Brad Boyes (31) and while he was a really good player for the Isles and a great pickup by Snow to replace Parenteau (Boyes signed 1 year deal for 1 million) the Isles have two top notch kid forwards ready to break through in Nino Niedereiter and Ryan Strome. Even if one of these guys are used in a trade I don't see the room for Boyes.
Defense:
This is where I want Snow to go out and make a big trade. I want a strong defenseman added to this group who is very defense minded, a leader and a physically player and someone who is in his prime age (late 20's). Snow has plenty of inventory to get a trade down it's just finding the right guy. I would be shocked if Mark Streit is not back. He is the captain of the team he has endured tough years here before this season and now the team is in position for big days ahead. Plus I hear he loves Long Island like most current and past players. Remember Streit has been here for the last 5 years. He wants a 3 year deal and the Isles and his agent have agreed on the years they are just a little bit off on the money from what I read. I expect common ground to be found well before free agency. In fact most of the NHL world both the other teams and NHL insiders expect this to happen. The Isles have resigned Visnovsky for the next 2 years and then they have a young core of Hamonic (also a RFA I can see Snow locking him up to a LT deal), Brain Strait & Andrew McDonald. They also have Matt Carkner signed for 2 more seasons and they have Thomas Hickey who is only 24. Radek Martinek is a free agent and will have to find work elsewhere. The Isles have talented defense prospects coming but the only one's who I think will be ready next year is Matt Donovan and Scott Mayfield.
Goaltending:
This is probably the most interesting area for Garth Snow. Does Snow believe between Kevin Poulin, Anders Nilsson & Mikko Koshinen are the Isles set in goal for years to come? Even if Snow really likes that trio but is not sure, he can sign a stop gap safety net goalie such as resigning Nabakov and having the youngsters split time with him and see where that goes or Snow can go the Free Agent market route or the trade route. Mike Smith of Phoenix is a UFA and with the ownership problems that team has it's doubtful they can afford him. Ray Emery of the Hawks is also a UFA and with their cap structure I can't see the Hawks being able to bring him back. A big name that will be very available in the trade market is Buffalo's Ryan Miller. Miller (32) is signed for 1 more year (6.25 Mil) and then becomes a UFA. Buffalo has made no secret they are in a full rebuild mode and both Ryan Miller & Thomas Vanek (also a UFA in 1 years time) have said they want no part of rebuild. So both will be shopped hard leading into the draft. Now in Miller's case you will have to trade a package of young players & picks and then sign him to a nice extension probably at least 3 years at 6+ plus million. I also hear that the Ducks who after signing their 2 big forwards preventing them from becoming UFA's this summer will move one of their two goalie's this off-season in either Hiller (31 and is a UFA after next season) & Fasta (30). Both had great regular seasons splitting time although Hiller has been the guy in the playoffs. These are some of the options.
Cap Space:
Isles have a ton of cap space and that's before using their Amnesty Buyout on DiPietro. In UFA's the Isles have a little over 16 million in cap space between Reasoner, Boyes, Aucoin, Boulton, M.Streit, Martinek, Tim Thomas and Nabokov. I believe Mark Streit will be back close to 5 million a year for 3 years and maybe Nabokov but he might have to come back at a lesser rate than his 2.75 million number this season on a 1 year deal. Everyone else I expect to be gone.
Prospects:
Hockey Futures which is the place to go to read about NHL Prospects and and the upcoming draft within the last couple of weeks just redid their 30 team prospect rankings and the Islanders were ranked with the 5th best system. The highlight guy I did not mention was last years 1st round pick and 5th pick overall defenseman Griffin Reinhardt. Reinhardt is projected to be an all around top D-Man. However while not impossible for him to make the team next season I expect Reinhardt to get one more season in juniors before coming to the Islanders. Also the Isles while making the playoffs do have a nice 1st round draft pick with the 15th overall selection in the 1st round. This is a very deep draft so they will add another really good prospect to their staple and while the Isles do not have a 2nd round pick (Anaheim for Visnovsky) the Isles have their own pick in rounds 3 - 7 & Montreal's 4th round pick. In addition to the guys I mentioned above keep an eye out on the following prospects as well:
Forwards: Kabanov, Sundstrom
Defense: De Haan, Kichton, Pelech, Pokka, Reinhart
Final Analysis:
Islander fans really good days are ahead. The building situation is finally settled, the current young core team is really coming together, the Isles have a very deep strong farm system, they are in great position with the cap, they have most of their core players already locked up and I believe given all of this and this past seasons team success the Isles will be able to attract top free agents as well. Keep in mind Snow has gone after a number of the top free agents in recent years and in many cases offering more money but those players said no for a lot of reasons and went elsewhere. It's going to be harder to say no now. Great days are ahead my friends.
Follow me on twitter @ TheNLKing
NL King - C.Lizza
Season In Review:
Going into this shortened 48 game season the Hockey News picked the New York Islanders to finish dead last in the Eastern Conference. In fact most publications or websites who made such proclamations had the Islanders finishing no better than 3rd worst in the Eastern Conference and probably heading to the draft with another top 5 or top 6 pick. The Isles the first 60% of the season were very competitive but had trouble putting together wins. Every time the Isles got close to .500 then would slip to 3 games under or so. Losing 3rd period leads was a big problem early in the season. It wasn't like the Islanders were getting blown out in fact I believe in the 48 game season the Isles were something like in 41 or 42 of their regular season games they headed into the 3rd period either tied or ahead. So the Isles were in pretty much in every game to say the least. But then from mid March on everything came together for this young team as the finished on an incredible run and made the playoffs for the 1st time since 2007. They of course drew the Penguins in the first round and they were an incredible underdog. After getting embarrassed and blown out in Game 1 the Islanders showed their talent, their resilience, their toughness both physically and mentally and played a great series. However they came up short by losing last night in Game 6 in OT after some bad luck on the tying goal by Paul Martin late in the 3rd deflecting off Frans Nielsen stick. While if you had asked any Islander before the season this is how this season would play out would you sign up for that, I would say 99% would not only sign up for it but be thrilled. I know I would've, however having said that last nights loss was a hit to the solar plexus and while I am extremely disappointed and this will stay with me for a couple of weeks I am extremely proud of the team and know really good days are ahead.
Going Forward:
Okay I am going to break down the big factors for the Isles going forward starting with this off-season.
Rick DiPietro:
It was clear early on this season that DiPietro could not compete at the NHL level. The Isles sent down DiPietro to Bridgeport to try and find his game. DiPietro in 18 games went 9-9 with a 2.93 GAA & .893 Save Percentage. While not horrible this is minor league hockey. He is a great kid and he does everything he can to be the best he can be but DiPietro due to a gigantic list of injuries is done. With the last lockout every team is given up to 2 Amnesty Buyouts to use between the beginning of this past season until the end of next season before July 1st. From a pure financial perspective I can not see how the New York Islanders and specifically owner Charles Wang does not buy out DiPietro. If the Isles do not use the Amnesty on DiPietro he is owed 36 million dollars over the next 8 years (4.5 Million per year) and of course it counts against the cap. If the Islanders use their Amnesty Buyout on DiPietro they owe him 24 million dollars over the next 15 years (1.6 Million per year) and it does not count against the cap. Cap situations aside from a pure financial perspective you have to use the buyout. An athlete that is finished that you can pay either 36 million over 8 years or 24 million over15 years what would you do?
Forwards:
The Isles have an excellent core of young forwards lead of course by Taveras (22), Bailey (23), Cizikas (22), Grabner (25), Martin (24), Okposo (25). The veterans of the Isles forwards are all still under 30 in C.McDonald (28), Moulson & Nielsen (29). The Isles have locked up long term Taveras, Grabner, Martin, Okposo & Nielsen. Josh Bailey is an RFA and everything really came together for him in the 2nd half of the season. Remember he missed the beginning of the season due to an injury from playing in the lockout. I believe it would make a lot of sense for Snow to lock up Bailey in a long term deal that works well for both the club and the player just like he did with Grabner, Okposo & Nielsen. I expect Brock Nelson (21), Anders Lee (22) & David Ullstrom (24) to be a part of the Isles 3rd and 4th lines giving them incredible depth. UFA forwards for the Isles are Reasoner, Aucoin, Boulton and these were stop gap guys until the young forwards were truly ready so I doubt they will be back. That leaves Brad Boyes (31) and while he was a really good player for the Isles and a great pickup by Snow to replace Parenteau (Boyes signed 1 year deal for 1 million) the Isles have two top notch kid forwards ready to break through in Nino Niedereiter and Ryan Strome. Even if one of these guys are used in a trade I don't see the room for Boyes.
Defense:
This is where I want Snow to go out and make a big trade. I want a strong defenseman added to this group who is very defense minded, a leader and a physically player and someone who is in his prime age (late 20's). Snow has plenty of inventory to get a trade down it's just finding the right guy. I would be shocked if Mark Streit is not back. He is the captain of the team he has endured tough years here before this season and now the team is in position for big days ahead. Plus I hear he loves Long Island like most current and past players. Remember Streit has been here for the last 5 years. He wants a 3 year deal and the Isles and his agent have agreed on the years they are just a little bit off on the money from what I read. I expect common ground to be found well before free agency. In fact most of the NHL world both the other teams and NHL insiders expect this to happen. The Isles have resigned Visnovsky for the next 2 years and then they have a young core of Hamonic (also a RFA I can see Snow locking him up to a LT deal), Brain Strait & Andrew McDonald. They also have Matt Carkner signed for 2 more seasons and they have Thomas Hickey who is only 24. Radek Martinek is a free agent and will have to find work elsewhere. The Isles have talented defense prospects coming but the only one's who I think will be ready next year is Matt Donovan and Scott Mayfield.
Goaltending:
This is probably the most interesting area for Garth Snow. Does Snow believe between Kevin Poulin, Anders Nilsson & Mikko Koshinen are the Isles set in goal for years to come? Even if Snow really likes that trio but is not sure, he can sign a stop gap safety net goalie such as resigning Nabakov and having the youngsters split time with him and see where that goes or Snow can go the Free Agent market route or the trade route. Mike Smith of Phoenix is a UFA and with the ownership problems that team has it's doubtful they can afford him. Ray Emery of the Hawks is also a UFA and with their cap structure I can't see the Hawks being able to bring him back. A big name that will be very available in the trade market is Buffalo's Ryan Miller. Miller (32) is signed for 1 more year (6.25 Mil) and then becomes a UFA. Buffalo has made no secret they are in a full rebuild mode and both Ryan Miller & Thomas Vanek (also a UFA in 1 years time) have said they want no part of rebuild. So both will be shopped hard leading into the draft. Now in Miller's case you will have to trade a package of young players & picks and then sign him to a nice extension probably at least 3 years at 6+ plus million. I also hear that the Ducks who after signing their 2 big forwards preventing them from becoming UFA's this summer will move one of their two goalie's this off-season in either Hiller (31 and is a UFA after next season) & Fasta (30). Both had great regular seasons splitting time although Hiller has been the guy in the playoffs. These are some of the options.
Cap Space:
Isles have a ton of cap space and that's before using their Amnesty Buyout on DiPietro. In UFA's the Isles have a little over 16 million in cap space between Reasoner, Boyes, Aucoin, Boulton, M.Streit, Martinek, Tim Thomas and Nabokov. I believe Mark Streit will be back close to 5 million a year for 3 years and maybe Nabokov but he might have to come back at a lesser rate than his 2.75 million number this season on a 1 year deal. Everyone else I expect to be gone.
Prospects:
Hockey Futures which is the place to go to read about NHL Prospects and and the upcoming draft within the last couple of weeks just redid their 30 team prospect rankings and the Islanders were ranked with the 5th best system. The highlight guy I did not mention was last years 1st round pick and 5th pick overall defenseman Griffin Reinhardt. Reinhardt is projected to be an all around top D-Man. However while not impossible for him to make the team next season I expect Reinhardt to get one more season in juniors before coming to the Islanders. Also the Isles while making the playoffs do have a nice 1st round draft pick with the 15th overall selection in the 1st round. This is a very deep draft so they will add another really good prospect to their staple and while the Isles do not have a 2nd round pick (Anaheim for Visnovsky) the Isles have their own pick in rounds 3 - 7 & Montreal's 4th round pick. In addition to the guys I mentioned above keep an eye out on the following prospects as well:
Forwards: Kabanov, Sundstrom
Defense: De Haan, Kichton, Pelech, Pokka, Reinhart
Final Analysis:
Islander fans really good days are ahead. The building situation is finally settled, the current young core team is really coming together, the Isles have a very deep strong farm system, they are in great position with the cap, they have most of their core players already locked up and I believe given all of this and this past seasons team success the Isles will be able to attract top free agents as well. Keep in mind Snow has gone after a number of the top free agents in recent years and in many cases offering more money but those players said no for a lot of reasons and went elsewhere. It's going to be harder to say no now. Great days are ahead my friends.
Follow me on twitter @ TheNLKing
NL King - C.Lizza
Friday, May 10, 2013
NL King - Calmo Calmo
I am throwing a little Italian in for today for my international readers. But today is a quick article on remaining calm even if your team is off to a bad start. In Italian calmo means even tempered and settled and that's what a successful Fantasy Baseball Owner needs to be. Look my team has gone off to a very bad start due to poor performances, injuries and bad luck so I feel all of your pain out there in that same boat. But I have looked at my team and on paper it's a solid team and you have to remember it's only May 10th. Some of you who are negative Nancy's might say Chris it's no longer April but I would reply it's a marathon not a sprint.
Two years ago I had a very strong team on paper in my estimation one of the top 2 teams after the draft. However due to a number of circumstances mostly poor performances heading into Memorial Day Weekend I found myself in 10th place in a 12 team league well behind the money position teams. In fact one owner who reads my articles asked me if I was looking to rebuild. My team started to come around and do what it was suppose to do. So despite a terrible first 2 months, while I did not win my league that season I did finish in 2nd place in a 12 team league. Now the reason I am bringing this up is to illustrate when you have a good team you must ride out the tough stretches by showing incredible patience.
Look if you have a deficiency in a particular area then yes you should be investigating trade scenarios. However if you are doing poorly in certain categories due to guys off to poor starts or unfathomable starts YOU MUST STAY THE COURSE !!!!
There are teams towards the top of your leagues just waiting for a team towards the bottom to make a panic move and take advantage of you. They look at as easy prey. Don't fall into that trap. Don't say to yourself "I hate my team I am going to change the roster". Change for the sake of change rarely works. Changes that analyzed and make sense work. For instance I have Miguel Montero who is off to a terrible start and is hitting .200. Montero is a hitter who hits between .280 and .285 every year so patience my friends.
Remember Calmo Calmo Calmo, the Even Tempered Settled GM is a Successful GM. Nietzsche said that.
Okay guys you got an article every day this week. I am taking the weekend off. For all of your New York Islander fans out there do not give up hope. In 1993 last time Isles played Pens in the playoffs they lost Game 5 in Pittsburgh pretty handily and then came home to the Coliseum and won Game 6 in a high scoring close game (7-5) and then went to Pittsburgh for Game 7 and won in OT on David Volek's goal. BeLIeve.
Follow me on Twitter @ TheNLKing
NL King - C.Lizza
Two years ago I had a very strong team on paper in my estimation one of the top 2 teams after the draft. However due to a number of circumstances mostly poor performances heading into Memorial Day Weekend I found myself in 10th place in a 12 team league well behind the money position teams. In fact one owner who reads my articles asked me if I was looking to rebuild. My team started to come around and do what it was suppose to do. So despite a terrible first 2 months, while I did not win my league that season I did finish in 2nd place in a 12 team league. Now the reason I am bringing this up is to illustrate when you have a good team you must ride out the tough stretches by showing incredible patience.
Look if you have a deficiency in a particular area then yes you should be investigating trade scenarios. However if you are doing poorly in certain categories due to guys off to poor starts or unfathomable starts YOU MUST STAY THE COURSE !!!!
There are teams towards the top of your leagues just waiting for a team towards the bottom to make a panic move and take advantage of you. They look at as easy prey. Don't fall into that trap. Don't say to yourself "I hate my team I am going to change the roster". Change for the sake of change rarely works. Changes that analyzed and make sense work. For instance I have Miguel Montero who is off to a terrible start and is hitting .200. Montero is a hitter who hits between .280 and .285 every year so patience my friends.
Remember Calmo Calmo Calmo, the Even Tempered Settled GM is a Successful GM. Nietzsche said that.
Okay guys you got an article every day this week. I am taking the weekend off. For all of your New York Islander fans out there do not give up hope. In 1993 last time Isles played Pens in the playoffs they lost Game 5 in Pittsburgh pretty handily and then came home to the Coliseum and won Game 6 in a high scoring close game (7-5) and then went to Pittsburgh for Game 7 and won in OT on David Volek's goal. BeLIeve.
Follow me on Twitter @ TheNLKing
NL King - C.Lizza
Thursday, May 09, 2013
NL KIng - Arizona Saves
With what looks like season ending surgery headed for JJ Putz the Arizona bullpen in terms of who will get the saves is an interesting point and time in terms of going forward. In my pres-season article I talked about how I really liked Putz but I did warn everyone due to his age (35) and past problems with injuries that was a red flag with JJ. Once again this shows how you need to be lucky in Fantasy Baseball to avoid bad luck in order to have a successful squad. Lets break it down.
Heath Bell:
Kirk Gibson is going to go with Bell first in terms of the 9th inning duties. Bell has the experience of course however Bell is coming off a nightmare 2012 season with the Marlins where he lost the closing job after getting his big 3 year contract. Bell last year had a 5.09 ERA, 1.555 Ratio. Many fantasy experts last year pointed to warning signs for Bell as he left Petco how each year his fly ball ratio was up and his K's were down. This is important aspect going forward as Arizona the ball does fly and Bell has given up a couple of HR's already. In fact Bell while not off to a terrible start like last year hasn't been great either currently with a 4.40 ERA & 1.395 Ratio. Having said that Bell has converted his first 2 save opportunities although with some stress. Bell is not going to get a long leash in my opinion but having said that Heath Bell is smart enough to know that this is his last chance to get his closer job back for his career. So there will be an urgency on his part to be successful but having said that I don't think that's what hurt Bell last year. To me Bell since going to San Diego has been a gamer but a combination of his stuff, age (now 35) and probably his weight has had his performance fallen. But he does get the first crack for Kirk Gibson.
David Hernandez:
By far the guy with the best stuff in the Arizona bullpen is David Hernandez. Having said that does not mean he can handle the 9th inning mental aspect of closing games. That's another skill and I am not saying Hernandez can't do it but until he does it you never know. Look last year David Robertson albeit in a small sample by his own admission struggled with the 9th inning and Mitchell Boggs failed this year with that as well. While Hernandez is not off to a great start this year (4.02 ERA & 1.468 Ratio) he is electric. Hernandez has been a key cog in the D-Backs bullpen last 2 years and in 2011 when Putz went down for nearly a month with an injury Hernandez was exceptional picking up 11 saves. Last year Hernandez only had 4 saves but had a 2.50 ERA, 1.02 Ratio & 98K in 68 1/3 IP & the league just hit .190 against Hernandez. To me especially after Mitchell Boggs failing in St.Louis maybe the D-Backs are taking it slow with Hernandez to aleviate the stress and pressure of the situation. Again if Bell gets on a roll then Hernandez probably doesn't get the chance but I believe he will get the chance to close for the D-Backs in the not to distant future.
Matt Reynolds:
The 28 year old came over to the D-Backs from Colorado and the last 2 seasons in Colorado Reynolds was a middle of the road bullpen arm for the Rockies. However you cannot get off to a better start than Reynolds has this year as he has yet to give up a run and in 16 1/3 IP has only given up 7 hits with 1 BB and compiled 14K's. I can see Reynolds getting some save opportunities based on situations with him being a lefty and with other relievers not being available on a certain day (does have 2 saves already) but to me Hernandez would be the more likely long term guy.
Follow me on Twitter @ TheNLKing
NL King - C.Lizza
Heath Bell:
Kirk Gibson is going to go with Bell first in terms of the 9th inning duties. Bell has the experience of course however Bell is coming off a nightmare 2012 season with the Marlins where he lost the closing job after getting his big 3 year contract. Bell last year had a 5.09 ERA, 1.555 Ratio. Many fantasy experts last year pointed to warning signs for Bell as he left Petco how each year his fly ball ratio was up and his K's were down. This is important aspect going forward as Arizona the ball does fly and Bell has given up a couple of HR's already. In fact Bell while not off to a terrible start like last year hasn't been great either currently with a 4.40 ERA & 1.395 Ratio. Having said that Bell has converted his first 2 save opportunities although with some stress. Bell is not going to get a long leash in my opinion but having said that Heath Bell is smart enough to know that this is his last chance to get his closer job back for his career. So there will be an urgency on his part to be successful but having said that I don't think that's what hurt Bell last year. To me Bell since going to San Diego has been a gamer but a combination of his stuff, age (now 35) and probably his weight has had his performance fallen. But he does get the first crack for Kirk Gibson.
David Hernandez:
By far the guy with the best stuff in the Arizona bullpen is David Hernandez. Having said that does not mean he can handle the 9th inning mental aspect of closing games. That's another skill and I am not saying Hernandez can't do it but until he does it you never know. Look last year David Robertson albeit in a small sample by his own admission struggled with the 9th inning and Mitchell Boggs failed this year with that as well. While Hernandez is not off to a great start this year (4.02 ERA & 1.468 Ratio) he is electric. Hernandez has been a key cog in the D-Backs bullpen last 2 years and in 2011 when Putz went down for nearly a month with an injury Hernandez was exceptional picking up 11 saves. Last year Hernandez only had 4 saves but had a 2.50 ERA, 1.02 Ratio & 98K in 68 1/3 IP & the league just hit .190 against Hernandez. To me especially after Mitchell Boggs failing in St.Louis maybe the D-Backs are taking it slow with Hernandez to aleviate the stress and pressure of the situation. Again if Bell gets on a roll then Hernandez probably doesn't get the chance but I believe he will get the chance to close for the D-Backs in the not to distant future.
Matt Reynolds:
The 28 year old came over to the D-Backs from Colorado and the last 2 seasons in Colorado Reynolds was a middle of the road bullpen arm for the Rockies. However you cannot get off to a better start than Reynolds has this year as he has yet to give up a run and in 16 1/3 IP has only given up 7 hits with 1 BB and compiled 14K's. I can see Reynolds getting some save opportunities based on situations with him being a lefty and with other relievers not being available on a certain day (does have 2 saves already) but to me Hernandez would be the more likely long term guy.
Follow me on Twitter @ TheNLKing
NL King - C.Lizza
Wednesday, May 08, 2013
NL King - Who Are These Guys ?
Today I take a look at a number of players where I have to quote from Butch Cassidy & the Sundance Kid "Who are these Guys?". I take a look at the fast starts from a number of surprising players.
Yuniesky Betancourt - Mil - 8HR, 24RBI, 14R, .276 Avg. Looked like his baseball career could be over but all of the Brewer injuries gave Betancourt maybe his last chance. Find it hard to believe this will continue.
Domonic Brown - Phil - 6HR, 15RBI, 12R, .239 Avg. Sometimes it takes a little bit longer for young players.
John Buck - NY - 10HR, 29RBI, 16R, .245 Avg. Has been ridiculously good, however last 2 years he has hit .192 & .227 and the Mets have to play him an awful lot. I see the glass slipper coming off in the not to distant future.
Matt Carpentar - Stl - 3HR, 9RBI, 24R, .271 Avg. Run scoring machine and Carpentar is showing he deserves a chance to play every day.
Tony Cingrani - Cinn - 2W, 2.63 ERA, 0.83 Ratio, 33K in 24IP. This young phenom is showing he is ready for prime time.
Patrick Corbin - Arz - 4W, 1.80 ERA, 1.08 Ratio, 32K in 40 IP. Was up and down last year when he got a chance to start for the snakes but off to a terrific start this year.
Brandon Crawford - SF - 5HR, 15RBI, 18R. Has more HR's already than all of last year. I thought he was a negative player because the numbers he gives you get washed away due to his poor average but so far he is above the .250 mark and giving good numbers.
David DeJesus - Cubs - 4HR, 8RBI, 18R, 2SB, .275 Avg. DeJesus is the kind of guy who gets over looked even though he is a nice player. You also forget he had some nice years in KC not that long ago.
Chris Denorfia - SD - 2HR, 11RBI, 17R, 2SB, .288 Avg. Super utility player is showing he is just super.
Evan Gattis - Atl - 7HR, 19RBI, 11R, .250 Avg. Has gone from feel good story to dominant power catching bat so far.
Jason Grilli - Pitt - 13SV, 0.64 ERA, 0.79 Ratio, 23K in 14IP. Showing that he can handle closing out games. He won't keep up this pace but he will be fine as a save option.
Chris Johnson - Atl - .323 Avg. Considering his batting average his other numbers are small. But he is doing his part. Keep in mind Johnson is a guy who looks like a player for 2 months and then can't get a hit for the rest of the season. Ride the wave but I am skeptical.
Matt Harvey - NY - 4W, 1.28 ERA, 0.69 Ratio, 58K in 49 1/3 IP. Am I surprised Harvey is having a good season of of course not. Am I surprised he is pitching like Sandy Koufax that's a big yes.
Jim Henderson - Mil - 7SV, 1.29 ERA, 0.93 Ratio. Keep in mind came up last year as a 29 year old rookie. Ride the wave and hope it lasts all year but I think this is a short term shelf life.
Nick Hundley - SD - 3HR, 11RBI, 13R, .278 Avg. After a disastrous 2012 (hit .157) is bouncing back with a solid year. Hundley has to with Grandal waiting in the wings come June after serving his 50 game suspension.
Kyle Kenderick - Phil - 4W, 2.45 ERA, 1.09 Ratio, 35K in 47 2/3IP. Has been sensational but keep in mind he is the kind of pitcher who has to hit his spots who he will get hit hard.
AJ Pollack - Arz - 4HR, 14RBI, 17R, 5SB, .267 Avg. Was a shoe-in to be sent to AAA after the Spring but due to all the injuries getting the chance to play every day. I have to see more before I am sold and what happens when Eaton is ready?
Jean Segura - Mil - 4HR, 13RBI, 16R, 8SB, .339 Avg. Did I think he could be a good player this year yes but not a dominant one. Injuries early on to Milwaukee has given Segura to hit at the top of the lineup.
Luis Valbuena - Cubs - 5HR, 13RBI, 7R, .264 Avg. Valbuena is doing what Ian Stewart should be doing.
Carlos Villanueva - Cubs - 1W, 2.85 ERA, 0.93 Ratio, 33K in 41 IP. Could easily have 4 wins, always had talent but inconsistency has been his bugaboo. Now he is getting chance to start which is what he always wanted.
Jake Westbrook - Stl - 2W, 1.07 ERA, 1.39 Ratio, 18K in 33 2/3 IP. How do you have a 1.07 ERA with a 1.39 Whip? Westbrook will come back to earth soon because he has to be picture perfect to get outs.
Travis Wood - Cubs - 3W, 2.33 ERA, 0.93 Ratio, 34K in 46 1/3 IP. Had a nice rookie year in 2010 and since then has been bad and switched organizations.
Follow me on Twitter @ TheNLKing
NL King - C.Lizza
Yuniesky Betancourt - Mil - 8HR, 24RBI, 14R, .276 Avg. Looked like his baseball career could be over but all of the Brewer injuries gave Betancourt maybe his last chance. Find it hard to believe this will continue.
Domonic Brown - Phil - 6HR, 15RBI, 12R, .239 Avg. Sometimes it takes a little bit longer for young players.
John Buck - NY - 10HR, 29RBI, 16R, .245 Avg. Has been ridiculously good, however last 2 years he has hit .192 & .227 and the Mets have to play him an awful lot. I see the glass slipper coming off in the not to distant future.
Matt Carpentar - Stl - 3HR, 9RBI, 24R, .271 Avg. Run scoring machine and Carpentar is showing he deserves a chance to play every day.
Tony Cingrani - Cinn - 2W, 2.63 ERA, 0.83 Ratio, 33K in 24IP. This young phenom is showing he is ready for prime time.
Patrick Corbin - Arz - 4W, 1.80 ERA, 1.08 Ratio, 32K in 40 IP. Was up and down last year when he got a chance to start for the snakes but off to a terrific start this year.
Brandon Crawford - SF - 5HR, 15RBI, 18R. Has more HR's already than all of last year. I thought he was a negative player because the numbers he gives you get washed away due to his poor average but so far he is above the .250 mark and giving good numbers.
David DeJesus - Cubs - 4HR, 8RBI, 18R, 2SB, .275 Avg. DeJesus is the kind of guy who gets over looked even though he is a nice player. You also forget he had some nice years in KC not that long ago.
Chris Denorfia - SD - 2HR, 11RBI, 17R, 2SB, .288 Avg. Super utility player is showing he is just super.
Evan Gattis - Atl - 7HR, 19RBI, 11R, .250 Avg. Has gone from feel good story to dominant power catching bat so far.
Jason Grilli - Pitt - 13SV, 0.64 ERA, 0.79 Ratio, 23K in 14IP. Showing that he can handle closing out games. He won't keep up this pace but he will be fine as a save option.
Chris Johnson - Atl - .323 Avg. Considering his batting average his other numbers are small. But he is doing his part. Keep in mind Johnson is a guy who looks like a player for 2 months and then can't get a hit for the rest of the season. Ride the wave but I am skeptical.
Matt Harvey - NY - 4W, 1.28 ERA, 0.69 Ratio, 58K in 49 1/3 IP. Am I surprised Harvey is having a good season of of course not. Am I surprised he is pitching like Sandy Koufax that's a big yes.
Jim Henderson - Mil - 7SV, 1.29 ERA, 0.93 Ratio. Keep in mind came up last year as a 29 year old rookie. Ride the wave and hope it lasts all year but I think this is a short term shelf life.
Nick Hundley - SD - 3HR, 11RBI, 13R, .278 Avg. After a disastrous 2012 (hit .157) is bouncing back with a solid year. Hundley has to with Grandal waiting in the wings come June after serving his 50 game suspension.
Kyle Kenderick - Phil - 4W, 2.45 ERA, 1.09 Ratio, 35K in 47 2/3IP. Has been sensational but keep in mind he is the kind of pitcher who has to hit his spots who he will get hit hard.
AJ Pollack - Arz - 4HR, 14RBI, 17R, 5SB, .267 Avg. Was a shoe-in to be sent to AAA after the Spring but due to all the injuries getting the chance to play every day. I have to see more before I am sold and what happens when Eaton is ready?
Jean Segura - Mil - 4HR, 13RBI, 16R, 8SB, .339 Avg. Did I think he could be a good player this year yes but not a dominant one. Injuries early on to Milwaukee has given Segura to hit at the top of the lineup.
Luis Valbuena - Cubs - 5HR, 13RBI, 7R, .264 Avg. Valbuena is doing what Ian Stewart should be doing.
Carlos Villanueva - Cubs - 1W, 2.85 ERA, 0.93 Ratio, 33K in 41 IP. Could easily have 4 wins, always had talent but inconsistency has been his bugaboo. Now he is getting chance to start which is what he always wanted.
Jake Westbrook - Stl - 2W, 1.07 ERA, 1.39 Ratio, 18K in 33 2/3 IP. How do you have a 1.07 ERA with a 1.39 Whip? Westbrook will come back to earth soon because he has to be picture perfect to get outs.
Travis Wood - Cubs - 3W, 2.33 ERA, 0.93 Ratio, 34K in 46 1/3 IP. Had a nice rookie year in 2010 and since then has been bad and switched organizations.
Follow me on Twitter @ TheNLKing
NL King - C.Lizza
Tuesday, May 07, 2013
NL King - Thinking about Closers
I thought I would do an article on NL closers and looking at the past 10 years of the NL Closers and where we are at presently.
Godfathers of NL Closers:
It would be nice if there could be a group of NL Closers for a number of years you could bank on such as Trevor Hoffman & Billy Wagner. Hoffman was an elite closer from 1994 through 2009 (injured almost all of 03) & Wagner was elite from 1997 through 2010 (injured in 2000 & 2009). On top of huge save numbers you got huge numbers across the board and they were money in the bank. Oh the good old days.
Most Closers Only Last 3 Years, 4 at Best:
If you look at it there are a number of closers who had big years and looked like they would be a huge closer for the next number of years. But after about 3 - 4 years time due to performance or injury they do not last. Closers who fall into this category are Kerry Wood, Chad Cordero, Eric Gagne, Brad Lidge (although up and down over a number of years), Brian Fuentes, Juan Carlos Oviedo (formerly Leo Nunez), Francisco Rodriguez (his prime years were gone when he came to the Mets), Ryan Franklin & Brian Wilson. I am sure these names are a blast from the past.
Closers who were better than you think:
In the NL over the last number of years the closers that while were not Wagner & Hoffman were the next rung down and were better than you think. These closers included Jose Valverde (before going to AL), Francisco Cordero & Jason Isringhausen.
Closers who were one hit wonders:
Closers in recent time who had huge seasons and looked like would be stud closers for years to come only to crash and burn and they include Carlos Marmol, John Axford, Todd Jones, Jonathan Broxton, and Drew Storen.
So where do we stand now:
Elite - Craig Kimbrel, Rafael Soriano (only signed with Nats through next season), Jonathan Papelbon (signed through 2015 season), Aroldis Chapman (signed through 2014). I would have put Jason Motte on this list but his recent Tommy John Injury ended that. I think as long as he holds up physically Sergio Romo could join this elite list for the next couple of years, if not then he is the next rung down.
Good Veterans but for how much longer:
Houston Street, JJ Putz (although early struggles are a concern), Jason Grilli. All signed just through next season 2014 and Putz & Grilli will be in late 30's.
Future Closers ?
Bobby Parnell (does he have the mental toughness to be a closer?), Kenley Jansen (will his health hold up no brainer stuff wise)
Stop Gaps:
Steve Cishek, Rafael Betancourt (age 37 and probably free agent to be), Brandon League (Kenley Jansen?) & Cardinals current situation. The Cubs & Brewers don't know what their long term plans are right now.
What I am telling you there are hardly any gurantees in terms of NL Closers and as much as I think Craig Kimbrel will be the next Trevor Hoffman or Billy Wagner remember what Eric Gagne did from 2002 - 2004. Gagne compiled 152 saves in 3 years with ERA's of 1.97, 1.20, 2.19, Ratio's of 0.86, 0.69, 0.91 & yearly K's of 114, 137, 114 only to really never to be heard from again. It's hard to believe but it's happened. In essence the closers are a mind field.
Follow me on Twitter @ TheNLKing
NL King - C.Lizza
Godfathers of NL Closers:
It would be nice if there could be a group of NL Closers for a number of years you could bank on such as Trevor Hoffman & Billy Wagner. Hoffman was an elite closer from 1994 through 2009 (injured almost all of 03) & Wagner was elite from 1997 through 2010 (injured in 2000 & 2009). On top of huge save numbers you got huge numbers across the board and they were money in the bank. Oh the good old days.
Most Closers Only Last 3 Years, 4 at Best:
If you look at it there are a number of closers who had big years and looked like they would be a huge closer for the next number of years. But after about 3 - 4 years time due to performance or injury they do not last. Closers who fall into this category are Kerry Wood, Chad Cordero, Eric Gagne, Brad Lidge (although up and down over a number of years), Brian Fuentes, Juan Carlos Oviedo (formerly Leo Nunez), Francisco Rodriguez (his prime years were gone when he came to the Mets), Ryan Franklin & Brian Wilson. I am sure these names are a blast from the past.
Closers who were better than you think:
In the NL over the last number of years the closers that while were not Wagner & Hoffman were the next rung down and were better than you think. These closers included Jose Valverde (before going to AL), Francisco Cordero & Jason Isringhausen.
Closers who were one hit wonders:
Closers in recent time who had huge seasons and looked like would be stud closers for years to come only to crash and burn and they include Carlos Marmol, John Axford, Todd Jones, Jonathan Broxton, and Drew Storen.
So where do we stand now:
Elite - Craig Kimbrel, Rafael Soriano (only signed with Nats through next season), Jonathan Papelbon (signed through 2015 season), Aroldis Chapman (signed through 2014). I would have put Jason Motte on this list but his recent Tommy John Injury ended that. I think as long as he holds up physically Sergio Romo could join this elite list for the next couple of years, if not then he is the next rung down.
Good Veterans but for how much longer:
Houston Street, JJ Putz (although early struggles are a concern), Jason Grilli. All signed just through next season 2014 and Putz & Grilli will be in late 30's.
Future Closers ?
Bobby Parnell (does he have the mental toughness to be a closer?), Kenley Jansen (will his health hold up no brainer stuff wise)
Stop Gaps:
Steve Cishek, Rafael Betancourt (age 37 and probably free agent to be), Brandon League (Kenley Jansen?) & Cardinals current situation. The Cubs & Brewers don't know what their long term plans are right now.
What I am telling you there are hardly any gurantees in terms of NL Closers and as much as I think Craig Kimbrel will be the next Trevor Hoffman or Billy Wagner remember what Eric Gagne did from 2002 - 2004. Gagne compiled 152 saves in 3 years with ERA's of 1.97, 1.20, 2.19, Ratio's of 0.86, 0.69, 0.91 & yearly K's of 114, 137, 114 only to really never to be heard from again. It's hard to believe but it's happened. In essence the closers are a mind field.
Follow me on Twitter @ TheNLKing
NL King - C.Lizza
Monday, May 06, 2013
NL King - Struggling Starting Pitchers
Okay today we take a look at the struggling starting pitchers in the NL at this point and time. Originally I was going to do a combo article of struggling starting pitchers and on closers an overall view but I don't want to short change either topic so each gets it's own article. Today is struggling starting pitchers.
NL East:
Gio Gonzalez - Wsh:
Gio is off to a slow start and it's easy to see why as Gonzalez has walked 20 hitters in his 1st 38 IP and given up 5 Home Runs already. Keep in mind Gio walked a total of 76 hitters in 199+ IP last year while only giving up 9 Home Runs last year. Gio will be fine as long as the walks come down.
Roy Halladay - Phil:
Other than a couple of starts Doc has been awful. He got destroyed yesterday by a Marlins team that did not have Stanton in the lineup. Halladay with his 8.65 ERA & 1.46 Ratio is now heading to the DL with shoulder issues. From what you read it seems Halladay was dealing with ailments last year which most likely effected his performance. This spring Halladay was taking about changing mechanics due to these ailments last year which was a warning sign. Halladay is 36 next week and with his contract not guranteed for next season (vested option) this could mean the beginning of the end of a guy who is considered the #1 pitcher in all of baseball going into last season.
NL Central:
Marco Estrada - Mil:
The K's are there, the problem is in just 38 2/3 IP has allowed 11HR's. That is not going to work.
Yovani Gallardo - Mil:
Has been his his usual inconsistent self and while I expect him to finish the year with good numbers thats why I consider Gallardo a tease and a very frustrating player to own.
Edwin Jackson - Chi:
I know for Roto purposes he is considered a depth starter but Jackson has been so bad it's ridiculous. Almost as ridiculous of the contract the Cubs gave him in the off-season (4 years 52 Mil).
James McDonald - Pitt:
Looks like McDonald is the pitcher who finished the season last year and not the won who was strong for the first 4 months. 20 walks in 29 2/3 IP is not going to work.
Wily Peralta - Mil:
He isn't fooling anyone 55 Baserunners in 33 IP.
NL West:
Josh Beckett - LA:
Lets face it after he got his last big contract from the Red Sox it does not seem like Beckett has really cared how he has performed.
Matt Cain - SF:
I know the usual reliable Matt Cain is off to a rocky start but he got the train back on track last night and I expect Cain to be fine.
Ian Kennedy - Arz:
Starting to remind of Gallardo but with not as good of stuff. I told everyone in the pre-season article I would worry about his maturity level.
Brandon McCarthy - Arz:
Has been beyond awful. I thought as long as he can stay healthy and pitch 150 innings which is a big if for him McCarthy would be a good pitcher. But leaving the Oakland Coliseum and going into Arizona where the ball flies and switching leagues has not helped McCarthy. I wouldn't abandon ship but you have a right to be very concerned.
Clayton Richard - SD:
Had a nice year last year albeit with not a lot of K's but off to a horrible start and now on the DL with a stomach ailment. Ironic considering how many upset stomach's he has given his roto owners.
Ryan Vogelsong - SF:
The steady Eddie from the last 2 years has been kidnapped. I would think Vogelsong would turn it around to at least a certain degree but keep in mind 2 years ago the Giants got Vogelsong off the scrap heap.
Edison Volquez - SD:
This guy must be maddening to own with his inconsistencies.
Follow me on Twitter @ TheNLKing
NL King - C.Lizza
NL East:
Gio Gonzalez - Wsh:
Gio is off to a slow start and it's easy to see why as Gonzalez has walked 20 hitters in his 1st 38 IP and given up 5 Home Runs already. Keep in mind Gio walked a total of 76 hitters in 199+ IP last year while only giving up 9 Home Runs last year. Gio will be fine as long as the walks come down.
Roy Halladay - Phil:
Other than a couple of starts Doc has been awful. He got destroyed yesterday by a Marlins team that did not have Stanton in the lineup. Halladay with his 8.65 ERA & 1.46 Ratio is now heading to the DL with shoulder issues. From what you read it seems Halladay was dealing with ailments last year which most likely effected his performance. This spring Halladay was taking about changing mechanics due to these ailments last year which was a warning sign. Halladay is 36 next week and with his contract not guranteed for next season (vested option) this could mean the beginning of the end of a guy who is considered the #1 pitcher in all of baseball going into last season.
NL Central:
Marco Estrada - Mil:
The K's are there, the problem is in just 38 2/3 IP has allowed 11HR's. That is not going to work.
Yovani Gallardo - Mil:
Has been his his usual inconsistent self and while I expect him to finish the year with good numbers thats why I consider Gallardo a tease and a very frustrating player to own.
Edwin Jackson - Chi:
I know for Roto purposes he is considered a depth starter but Jackson has been so bad it's ridiculous. Almost as ridiculous of the contract the Cubs gave him in the off-season (4 years 52 Mil).
James McDonald - Pitt:
Looks like McDonald is the pitcher who finished the season last year and not the won who was strong for the first 4 months. 20 walks in 29 2/3 IP is not going to work.
Wily Peralta - Mil:
He isn't fooling anyone 55 Baserunners in 33 IP.
NL West:
Josh Beckett - LA:
Lets face it after he got his last big contract from the Red Sox it does not seem like Beckett has really cared how he has performed.
Matt Cain - SF:
I know the usual reliable Matt Cain is off to a rocky start but he got the train back on track last night and I expect Cain to be fine.
Ian Kennedy - Arz:
Starting to remind of Gallardo but with not as good of stuff. I told everyone in the pre-season article I would worry about his maturity level.
Brandon McCarthy - Arz:
Has been beyond awful. I thought as long as he can stay healthy and pitch 150 innings which is a big if for him McCarthy would be a good pitcher. But leaving the Oakland Coliseum and going into Arizona where the ball flies and switching leagues has not helped McCarthy. I wouldn't abandon ship but you have a right to be very concerned.
Clayton Richard - SD:
Had a nice year last year albeit with not a lot of K's but off to a horrible start and now on the DL with a stomach ailment. Ironic considering how many upset stomach's he has given his roto owners.
Ryan Vogelsong - SF:
The steady Eddie from the last 2 years has been kidnapped. I would think Vogelsong would turn it around to at least a certain degree but keep in mind 2 years ago the Giants got Vogelsong off the scrap heap.
Edison Volquez - SD:
This guy must be maddening to own with his inconsistencies.
Follow me on Twitter @ TheNLKing
NL King - C.Lizza
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