Top 20 NL Only League Hitters

One might say.... why write an article on the top 20 "hitters" in the National League? We know these guys are either great or almost great so let's focus our attentions elsewhere. I have probably done that along the way myself. But think about an auction draft, the top 20 all go for high draft dollars (in most cases, higher than market value because of the lack of impact players) and in a traditional draft your lucky if one of these hitters makes it to the 3rd round. So there's a lot at stake with these players. You need to understand these players strengths and weaknesses just like the sleepers and every other player in the draft. I have broken the top 20 hitters into 2 groups the "elite" and "almost there".

The Elite:
These 7 NL Hitters, barring any setbacks, we know they will have big years. Here are those players in ranking order....

Albert Pujols - I mean, what else is there to say. The guy is a monster and he is probably the most consistent player in all of Roto. In his 9 year career the lowest amount of HR he had in a season is 32, RBI are 103, Runs are 99 and average is .314. It seems like that elbow issue that came up a couple of years ago that scared people is okay. Only negative I will say is don't count on 16 steals again. Maybe he will do it again but plan for around 8.

Hanley Ramirez - One of two players to go 20HR/20SB the last three years consecutively in the NL. The days of him stealing 50 are probably over but he should be knocking at the door on a 30HR, 100+RBI, 100+R, 25-30 SB and a very high average every year (career .316 hitter). Just turned 26.

Ryan Braun - It shouldn't be this easy to become a stud. In 3 years as a starting player Braun is a 30HR, 100+RBI, 100+R, 20SB and .300 hitter. Wouldn't be surprising if one day he is number one on this list.  Just turned 26.

Chase Utley - Best line I heard about him is that Utley plays like his hair is on fire. He plays with such intensity which means he tries to get everything out of every AB. Have to love that from your roto player. Similar to Braun's numbers but at 2B.

Matt Kemp - At less pop than Braun & Utley but double the steals. Just turned 25.

Matt Holliday - Keep in mind that 1st half in Oakland hurt his numbers last year. Should be a guy who goes 30+HR, 100+RBI, 100+R, 15 to 20 SB and is a career .318 hitter.

Ryan Howard - If he can hit close to .280, he'd be a monster. The 8 steals last year was a nice little bonus. Monster Power in a Bam Box.

Almost There:
These guys are either on the verge of making the elite or are really good hitters just one step below. This is to close to call on rankings so I just listed them in alphabetical order.

Andre Ethier - He may just stay on the 2nd tier list his whole career as a low $30 dollar player, won't get any SB's but if he can hit around .300 like he did in 08 instead of .272 in 09 then maybe he will be knocking on the door of the elite list.

Prince Fielder - Love 2007 & 2009, it's just 2008 wasn't on the same level as those years. Need to see a big year in 2010 and then we can put him on the elite list.

Adrian Gonzalez - If he played in any other NL park other than Citi Field he probably be on the elite list. The concern here is Gonzalez has 2 years left on his contract with SD and then he becomes a free agent. If SD is out of it come July, I am sure they will listen to trade offers. If Gonzalez gets traded to the AL during the year, how does your league handle that? This is a concern in an NL only league.

Brandon Phillips - Remember how I said Hanley was one of only 2 NL players to go at least 20HR & 20SB the last 3 years, Phillips is the other hitter to do that. Like Ethier, probably won't ever make it to the elite level and probably won't do 30-30 again like he did in 2007 but he can be a $30 player for the next few years and at 2B.

Jose Reyes - Oh boy this is a tough one. If Reyes is 100% he is a 60SB guy. Does anyone know the answer to that question? His 60 steals is what sets him apart. Because he is good in HR & RBI & Avg and strong in runs but it's the steals. If you are going to take on risk with a player there should be a bit of a discount. Meaning don't pay for Reyes on draft day if the price is based on him getting 60 steals.

Mark Reynolds - I have to see it again and then we will put him on the elite list. Obviously when you K like he does he raises some concern and want to see him hit .260 again instead of .239. I would say given his other numbers .250 is fine. A little concerned that out of no where he became a SB guy. Is this a 1 year wonder. Basically don't pay based on his 2009 numbers.

Jimmy Rollins - Just turned 31 and his steals fell from 47 to 31 last year. Also the average and his OBP were not good. He may now be a 30 SB guy due to his age and in that lineup in that ballpark he may not have to feel he needs to steal as much. His MVP season in 2007 is a thing of the past. Can still be a low $30 player.

Pablo Sandoval - He can flat out hit. Plays in a big ball park & doesn't currently play with any other great hitters. Those 2 facts will hurt his overall numbers in 2010. But still will get you a high average with really good power and position flexibility.

Troy Tulowitzki - Showed that 2008 was a sophomore slump I think. Again a little concerned like Reynolds with SB's that came out of now where.

Justin Upton - I remember reading about Justin Upton when he got called up and scouts where saying the question isn't whether he will be a top 5 player in MLB, the question is when. We saw that last year with his performance. He just turned 22 late in the season. This guy could challenge very quickly the #1 spot in the NL as a hitter.

Jayson Werth - He is a gamer. Average is a push but love the 20 steals in back to back seasons and in that lineup and in that ballpark will hit 30HR and knock on the door of 100 R & RBI. Only has 1 year left on his contract and then becomes a free agent. Good chance Philly uses their money else where and let Dominic Brown take his place in 2011.

David Wright - Everyone got hurt, let the ballpark get in his head and pressed last year. He is a gap hitter so while I think the HR will come back (10 HR last year) I think he will be closer to 20HR than 30HR. Love the average & speed.

Ryan Zimmerman - He doesn't get SB's but with the lack of a supporting cast has emerged as a solid 30HR, 100 R & RBI guy who hit around .290 last year. Just turned 25.

NL King - C.Lizza

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NL King - Percentage Categories What You Must be Aware of to Win a Championship

ERA, Ratio and batting average all have one thing in common..... these three categories, unlike the other seven categories (assuming you are in a 5 X 5 roto league), can move you up or down the standings daily. What I mean by that is one day your team ERA can be 3.75 and the next day it can be 3.83. Think about that for a second.  You can have a bad stretch and it can really hurt in that category. So with that in mind everyone must be aware of this fact in putting together your team.

 

Batting Average:

In regards to these three categories you do not want to fall way behind in the 1st half of the season because it is so hard to make up ground in these specific categories. For instance in the league I am in I would say in a 12 team league a .270 team batting average would probably put you around 5th or 6th place (7-8 Points for that category).  Now let's say your team has a terrible batting average for the 1st half and it's at .250. That means to hit the .270 average for the year your team has to hit .290 in the 2nd half which is an incredible average. Keeping this in mind you have to be careful on getting low average players on your team. Now batting average you have more wiggle room that ERA & Ratio because you have 14 hitters as oppose to 9 pitchers and the hitters can get AB's every day, where as the pitchers the starters only start once every 5 days and the bullpen guys at best will pitch 4 innings a week.

 

But getting back to batting average you must pick your spots regarding guys that are not good average guys but can help your team in the other categories. So guys like Mike Cameron, Ian Stewart, Adam Dunn, Kyle Blanks or Mark Reynolds who potential can hurt your average you must not load up on these kind of players even though they can help you in the other categories. Don't get me wrong, I am not saying these guys should not be on your team but at most you should have 2 of these guys as part of your team and ideally if you do have a couple of guys like this on your team you need to have a couple of high batting average starters to help offset these low average starters.

 

Finally regarding batting average, under no circumstances regarding role players on your team (your middle infielder, or your corner, 2nd catcher, 5th OF) do not take a guy who is a bad batting average player. So even if your 2nd catcher is a starter but hits .240 (like a Nick Hundley) your team would be 100 times better off having a guy like Ronny Paulino who is a backup but will hit between .270 - .280. No bad batting averages from role players.

 

ERA & Ratio:

Like I stated above with Batting Average, you have the same problems with ERA and Ratio but these pitching categories are more difficult because you get a lot less opportunities with IP than AB's to help reduce your ERA & Ratio. Again, these are not every day players and only 9 pitchers instead of 14 hitters. Okay, so regarding the pitching under no circumstances do you draft a pitcher who is a career 4.50 ERA or worst and or a guy who is a career 1.40 Ratio or worst. The only exception can be a guy who is a closer and can get you a lot of saves (think Brain Wilson in 2008 where he had a bad ERA & Ratio but 41 saves). At least in that case you only have 60 to 70 innings of bad era & ratio numbers. So when rounding out your staff regarding your extra starters and middle relievers stay away from these guys. Bad ERA & Ratio numbers are so hard to make up. Take a few less wins or fewer strikeouts to preserve your ERA & Ratio.

 

Everyone needs to respect these categories because they are very volatile and it's so hard to make up ground when you fall way behind the pack.

 

Will have another article next week. Everyone have a great week.

 

NL King - C.Lizza

NL King - "The Closers"

Today we'll take a look at all the National League closers. To have a championship team you have to have saves. You don't have to win the category but you need to be competitive. Punting doesn't work so don't even go down that road. Unlike the American League where there are a lot more givens at the closer position (Mariano Rivera, Jon Papelbon, Joe Nathan, Bobby Jenks, Joakim Soria, not to mention the promising younsters Andrew Bailey and David Aardsma), the NL has a lot of question.  Let's break it down...

The Elite:
Jonathan Broxton - LAD - I know he only has 55 career saves and his numbers on the road aren't great and has blown some big playoff games but this guy is nasty. No reason not to expect awesome numbers in ratio & K's, strong ERA & around 40 saves.

Really Good But Not Elite:
Notice there is only 1 guy at the elite level?

Trevor Hoffman - Since his rookie year in 93 where he had a ratio of 1.32, Hoffman's worst ratio year was 1.18 in a season. That is pretty amazing. To me he has always put up elite numbers other than 2008. I still think he is money in the bank but we have to recognize he is 42 years old. His fastball is probably around 88 but the guy knows how to get outs.

Francisco Rodriguez - Not so much because he had bad last 2 months but his ratio numbers have gone up each year and his strikeout numbers have gone down each year. Still one of the better NL options and even on the Mets should get close to 40 saves with pretty good numbers across the board.

Huston Street - After a so-so 2008 Street showed that in 2009 he is capable of being an elite closer. Always been a strong ratio guy and at least a K per inning guy. A strong 2010 and we can put him in the elite part of the list. Remember just signed a 3 year deal with the Rockies so will be in the NL for a while.

Francisco Cordero - Believe it or not he has 225 saves the last 6 years (average of 37.5 per year). So why is he not elite? 2006 was a bit of a lost year for him, his ratio is usually a bit to high to feel comfortable & his dip in K's last year gives you pause. Also pitches in a bit of a bam box. But 225 saves in the last 6 years is nothing to sneeze at.

Brian Wilson - Yes, we loved the 41 saves in 2008 but the 4.64 ERA & 1.45 Ratio had us very concerned. Well, last year he got 3 less saves but his ERA was 2.75 and Ratio 1.20. One more year like 2009 and we can put him in the elite group.

Heath Bell - Bell only had 2 career saves before being the closer last year and had an elite year on every level. The only reason I do not have him in the elite group is because I want to see him do it again.

Ryan Franklin - The last year and a half he has been a very strong and reliable closer however Franklin does turn 37 in Spring training. His K's are usually a little low, limited closer experience and seems like the Cards are looking for the next closer. Should have at least another good year in him as a closer.

Could Be Really Good But Some Serious Questions (this is no particular 
order):

Billy Wagner - Hard to say what the Braves will get here, did look good in August & September, but coming back from major surgery and he will be 39 years old in the summer.

Leo Nunez - A little to many walks but it's the 13 HR allowed last year that gives me pause. A closer has to limit his walks and HR.

Brad Lidge - This guy is a rollercoaster. In 2008 does not blow a save and then last year has an ERA over 7. How is that possible? Throw in the fact that he is coming off surgery.

Matt Capps - Don't give up on this guy yet. He is entering his prime years and while he had a rough year last year (trust me I know I owned him in my league) keep in mind has 48 saves the last 2 years and a change of scenary might help.

Chad Qualls - He is not sexy but he is a veteran and knows how to get outs. Last year at the age of 31 became a closer for the first time.

Carlos Marmol - This guy has filthy stuff. How else do you get 93K's in 74 IP in 2009 & 114K's in 87 IP. However those walks must be cut way down for Marmol to stay a closer. Lou Pinella will lose his mind if he keeps those walks up.

Brandon Lyon - I know he was the closer in Arizona in 2008 and got 26 saves but that was with a 4.70 ERA. Only if you get him at bargain basement price.

Octavio Dotel - Only has 83 career saves in his 10+ year career. Just turned 36 and does anything the Pirates do work? Again only at a bargain basement price.

Final Thought: As great as electric stuff is the most important thing for a closer is to have, the strong mental attitude and ability to throw strikes is greater. Remember at the end of the day, 90% of the saves is getting 3 outs. But knowing what you are doing and having that tough closer mentality is 90% of the ball game. That's why at age 42 and throwing 88 MPH with his fastball Hoffman is still good.  That's why Qualls & Franklin who don't have electric stuff have been able to do the job later in their career.

Have a great week everyone!

NL King - C.Lizza

NL King - Where have you gone Vince Coleman our lonely hearts turn to you

Great to be back with my first article for 2010 so here we go.....

I don't know if all the readers are old enough to remember Vince 
Coleman but this guy was stealing between 100 & 110 bases a year going 
back to the mid to late 80's.

Today, especially in an NL Only league, that kind of production by one 
player wins you the category all by himself. Obviously the game has 
changed but if a Rickey Henderson or Vince Coleman kind of stolen base 
player came up with that kind of potential it would be interesting to 
see how teams today would handle that kind of player.

This discussion is about the effect the decline of the stolen base 
has on fantasy baseball, in particular, in the National League. Here are some quick 
interesting points to consider....

1. Only 5 players in the NL last year had 30 or more stolen bases: 
(Michael Bourn - 61, Nyjer Morgan - 42, Matt Kemp - 34, Jimmy Rollins - 31 & Juan Pierre - 30) and one of those players is now in the American League!
2. Only 2 NL players broke 40 and only 1 player broke 50
3. There were 7 NL players who had between 25 and 29 steals
4. There were 10 NL players who had between 20 and 24 steals
5. There were 5 NL players who had between 15 and 19 steals

So how does one handle this category in NL Only fantasy leagues? Some quick tip...
1.  Unless you are fortunate enough to already have a Michael Bourn or a 
Nyjer Morgan on your roster for decent dollars you are going to have 
to have depth in this category to compete.
2. When you spend big money in an auction draft or even if your league 
does a traditional snake draft whenever you get a high impact player, make 
sure he gives you at least 15 steals. So I will take Chase Utley over 
Prince Fielder
3. Find the quiet speed guys. What I mean by this is if you can add 3 
or 4 hitters who give you 7 or 8 steals versus the guys who only do 1 
or 2 steals, those numbers add up. Value those quiet steals guys much more.
4. Be wary of the one dimensional players (i.e. steals only). Willy Taveras stole 
nearly 70 bases one year but all is his other years finished in the 
mid 30's and last year he finished with just 25. Don't over spend on guys like this.
5. Be wary of guys who jump up in steals for one year, you just cannot count on 
them. Albert Pujols was always a quiet steal guy, he got his 7 or 8 every year 
but last year he stole 16. Count on 8 steals not 16 for 2010!  And, be 
wary of Mark Reynolds stealing that many bases again. It's possible, 
but you shouldn't count on it.
6. The Jose Reyes Factor - Reyes was injured for most of the season last 
year and had very little steals. A healthy Reyes is a player who is 
around 60. Be conservative and assume 40.
7. Always keep an eye on the free agency and or waiver wire on guys who 
can give you some cheap steals be it the Angel Pagan's of the world or 
the youngsters such as a Drew Stubbs or Alcides Escobar.
8. Finally, the more guys you can count on the better even if it's in 
the low double digits. The numbers add up. Ideally, if you can be in 
the middle of this category and striking distance towards the top then 
you can make a trade 2/3 through the season for steals with someone 
looking towards next season.

Hope these tid bits help.

NL King - C.Lizza

Fantasy Player Profile: Alcides Escobar

I'm trying to better commit myself to more useful fantasy baseball advice via these blog posts, so adding the Fantasy Player Profile is hopefully something I'll be able to continue throughout the preseason. Anyway, I've been doing some wheelin' and dealin' with my money keeper leagues the last few days that I thought I'd share some thoughts about my main man Alcides Escobar, Milwaukee's new everyday shortstop.... barring any spring setbacks.

First off, no, Chris Coghlan for Alcides Escobar is not a fair deal in my opinion! Sorry man. Just one of the few trade offers I have received for my $1.00 Escobar. Escobar has already given off the impression that he's a speed and batting average guy with power to hopefully develop. With Milwaukee trading J.J. Hardy to the Twins before the Winter Meetings, the Brew Crew opened up a starting spot for the 23 year old. CBS has touted Escobar as the next Jose Reyes which really says something. So let's take a look at some of the numbers....

2009 cup of tea in the majors: .304BA/1HR/11RBI/4SB/20R in 125AB. = Not bad at all
2009 AAA Age 22: .297BA/4HR/33RBI/41SB/75R/65K in 427AB = More speed, less AB
2008 AA Age 21: .328BA/8HR/76RBI/34SB/95R/82K in 546AB = BA/Speed & some Power
2007 A Age 20: .325BA/0HR/25RBI/18SB/37R/35K in 268AB = Hit for BA

What you like here is the consistency in batting average above the .300 mark with the low strikeout rate. Throw in 30+ steals and you have yourself and sweet SS later in the draft who ranks just inside the top 15 but will probably perform close to a top 10. This guy is the real deal and now is the time to invest! if you play in a keeper league or dynasty league where you can get this guy for a buck or two, make the move now. If you want to compare Escobar to someone, compare him to Elvis Andrus with a better BA. I don't know about the whole Jose Reyes thing but if this guy can develop over the next 2-3 years, yeah, he can certainly hit 12-15HR and steal 50-60 bases. I guess that all depends on Milwaukee's game plan. We'll just have to wait and see.

The way I look at it is this.... If Milwaukee so easily gave up on J.J. Hardy who won't exactly command a big contract to clear a spot for Escobar, then they must think he's ready. In my opinion, he's a slightly suped up Elvis Andrus and anyone who can hit you .300, score close to or more than 100 runs, and steal 30-40+ bases is definitely worth a 14th round gamble in normal 12 team mixed league drafts and for $5-$8 or less in normal $260 budget auction leagues. Of course, he'll probably hit some bumps and bruises along the way but he should last the entire season like Andrus did and Milwaukee will be patient. But now is the time to invest!

If you're asking me for a projection...... .295BA/7HR/60RBI/35SB/90R in 600AB
That's just a shooting-from-the-hip kind of projection throwing in maybe a slump or a slow start or something! Oh, and those are Ichiro Suzuki type numbers minus some BA and a few runs, at the end of the draft and at SS!!!

FM

The Fantasy Man's 2010 Fantasy Baseball Catchers Rankings Podcast is NOW PLAYING!

The Fantasy Man's 2010 Fantasy Baseball Catchers Rankings Podcast is NOW PLAYING!
Find out what rookie cracks the top 5 and what veteran hit 22 HR in 383 AB in 2009 who cracks the top 5! It's all here in the 2010 catcher rankigs podcast! Get it at iTunes by clicking on the search and typing "Fantasy Baseball".... then scroll down past all the fantasy football podcasts.

Or, get the podcast directly here!

The Fantasy Man's 2010 Closer Report

Fantasy Man's 2010 Closer Report
Team by Team - Updated Whenever
Last Updated: January 1st, 2010

2010 Closer Mixed League Rankings
Mariano Rivera
Jonathan Broxton
Joe Nathan
Jonathan Papelbon
Francisco Rodriguez
Joakim Soria
Jose Valverde
Heath Bell
Brian Wilson
Frank Francisco
Francisco Cordero
Andrew Bailey
Carlos Marmol
Huston Street
Brad Lidge
Ryan Franklin
Billy Wagner
Rafael Soriano
Trevor Hoffman
David Aardsma
Brian Fuentes
Jason Frasor
Matt Capps
Kerry Wood
Leo Nunez
Matt Lindstrom
Joel Zumaya
Joel Hanrahan
Fernando Rodney
Chad Qualls
Juan Gutierrez
J. Johnson
Mike Gonzalez
Octavio Dotel


AMERICAN LEAGUE

Baltimore: There should be a nice spring battle between newly acquired Mike Gonzalez and Jim Johnson. Gonzalez has superior stuff but he's a bit injury prone and has never been automatic, so bid with caution. I'd draft as a second or third closer but Jim Johnson and Koji Uehera are pretty much waiver wire material at this point.

Boston: Jon Papelbon will look to bounce back a bit in his contract year so you have to like that. Daniel Bard is waiting in the wings and could be a late round stashee in case Papelbon gets traded at the deadline...which is probably unlikely.

Chicago: Bobby Jenks is still the closer and probably a bit under hyped which could mean he can be had on the cheap. He dealt with some injury issues last year but will be ready for spring training. The dark hourse here however is Matt Thornton who could wrestle the job away should Jenks get injured or stink!

Cleveland: Kerry Wood was signed to be the primary closer last year had a down year as did Cleveland as a whole. Wood has always had health issues so handcuffing him with Chris Perez might be a smart move. Wood and Perez will be dirt cheap this year.

Detroit: Jose Valverde has signed with Detroit to be the primary closer. He'll be super solid all-around and ranks just inside the top 10 closers. Dark horse #1 should Valverde crap the bed is the oft-injured Joel Zumaya who will be dirt cheap with a ton of upside if he can stay healthy. Ryan Perry who has a 100MPH heater would be my dark horse #2 in this situation.

Kansas City: Joakim Soria is top 6 in my book but the Royals stink. The Mexicutioner has entrenched as the closer and as a candidate for 30+ saves and a fantastic ERA/WHIP! KC also has Juan Cruz as set up man, save vultur-er and holds guy.

Los Angeles: The Angels signed Fernando Rodney to help try to take away the job from Brian Fuentes. Anyone who watched the World Series knows that Fuentes is not the guy. Maybe I'm wrong but he'll be super cheap on draft day. Draft him, vulture some saves in the first half and just when Fuentes luck starts to run out, grab Rodney for the second half.

Minnesosta: Same ole Joe Nathan who gets you a lot of K's, low ERA, low WHIP, and 35-45 saves.

New York: Mariano Rivera is Mariano Rivera, what else do I need to say. He's money and even though he's another year older, he's still money. He'll stay relatively healthy and I don't feel that this is the year he'll finally breakdown as you can see that the Yankees plan to make another World Series run.... and they don't plan to do it again without Mo.

Oakland: ROY Andrew Bailey cemented himself in the role. The young pitching staff will be slightly better which means probably a ton of opportunities. Think San Francisco Giants!

Seattle: David Aardsma took over the job in the second half last year and was fantastic. He'll also be dirt cheap because no one knows if the Mariners will be any good. However, with now Cliff Lee and King Felix, you'll probably see an increase in save opportunities. Again, like San Francisco and Oakland.

Tampa Bay: Last year was a mess to try and figure out. This year there's no question that Rafael Soriano is your guy. In my opinion, he'll always be a set up type. J. P. Howell will be the set up and probably vulture a few saves when Soriano either falters or gets hurt..

Texas: Frank Francisco is a K machine and you have Neftali Feliz out there as a potential closer. It looks like Feliz will start and if so, I love Francisco who will be cheap again this year.

Toronto: Will the real Slim Shady please stand up?! Your guess is as good as mine. Jason Frasor is the listed closer on CBS.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Arizona: Chad Qualls is your penciled closer again with Aaron Heilman and Bob Howry in the mix! Juan Guetirrez saved 9 games late last year when Qualls got hurt and I wouldn't be surprised if Gutierrez steals the job away.

Atlanta: Billy Wagner is back baby! Yes, I think he'll be solid and he'll last all season. He's a quality reliever who is healthy and out of NY. Should be cheap!

Chicago: Sweet Lou announced that Carlos Marmol will be the primary closer, so that takes care of that. Marmol has electric stuff so let's hope he can get the most out of it. Huge upside here but keep in mind that there is some risk as he faltered when given the job last year.

Cincinnati: Francisco Cordero is entrenched as the primary closer and he's been decent, gets you high K's, but Cincinnati overall has struggled so opportunities could be limited.

Colorado: Huston Street is the closer. He's been a bit shakey lately but if he's healthy at spring training, he could be a top producer.

Florida: Leo Nunez took over last year and was solid. Should be cheap on draft day with not much competition.

Houston: Newly acquired Matt Lindstrom is the listed closer and should be cheap on draft day considering he hasn't proven that he can keep the job or stay healthy.

Los Angeles: Who doesn't love Jonathan Broxton???? He money.

Milwaukee: Trevor Hoffman should be your man again, expect 30-35 saves, an ERA that is increasing but with a decent WHIP.

New York: K-Rod in da house! Hopefully the Mets get another starter to give K-Rod more opportunities. I'm beginning to wonder if that will be a problem or not.

Philadelphia: Brad Lidge was terrible last year and the Phillies have no one else. Plus, I love how cheap I can get Lidge and stash! Ryan Madson would be the next guy in line but if anyone remembers the second half of last season, neither of these guys could get the job done.

Pittsburgh: Joel Hanrahan? Ugh... makes me want to punt saves. Octavio Dotel was just signed so we may have a cat fight on our hands!

San Diego: Heath Bell should be solid when and if he gets opportunites. Mike Adams in the background is money if Bell gets traded so keep an eye out here.

San Francisco: Brian Wilson quietly racked up almost 40 saves with a surprising ERA under 3 and a 1.20 WHIP. Look for Wilson to have an equally solid year now with more experience. There's some upside here.

St. Louis: Ryan Franklin took over last season and was solid. I think he'll be solid again and should go just out of the top 10 in drafts.

Washington: Matt Capps goes from one bad team to an even worse team. Good luck Matty! Have fun with that one!

Check out Todd "The True Guru" Farino's TheCloserReport.com for more updated Closer information!

2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit Tools

Fantasy Baseball advice, 2010 rankings, draft tools, etc.

2010 Fantasy Baseball Top 400 Draft Sheet
2010 Fantasy Baseball Top 50 Draft Picks
2010 Fantasy Baseball Catcher Rankings
2010 Fantasy Baseball First Base 1B Rankings
2010 Fantasy Baseball Second Base 2B Rankings
2010 Fantasy Baseball Shortstop SS Rankings
2010 Fantasy Baseball Third Base 3B Rankings
2010 Fantasy Baseball Outfield OF Rankings
2010 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher SP Rankings
2010 Fantasy Baseball Closers Relief Pitcher RP Rankings

The Fantasy Man First Expert Mock Draft of 2010!

First real fantasy baseball expert mock draft of the 2010 season kicked off at Mock Draft Central last Tuesday night!

We went 23 rounds with the standard rosters -- two Cs included.

The draft order had been selected, and was as follows:
1- Tim McLeod, RotoRob
2- Daniel Dobish, OPEN Sports
3- Chris McDonnell, FantasyBaseball.com
4- Paul Bourdett, RotoExperts
5- Todd Zola, Mastersball
6- Tom Kessenich, Fanball and National Fantasy Baseball Championship
7- Brett Greenfield, Fantasy Phenoms
8- Nick Minnix, KFFL
9- Ray Murphy, Baseball HQ
10- Scott Swanay, Fantasy Baseball Sherpa
11- Paul Greco, Fantasy Pros 911
12- Mike Kuchera, Fantasy Baseball Express

As always, the boys from Fantasy Pros 911 broadcasted the event. Listen to the: Audio Replay of in-draft audio analysis This should be pretty good as I'll probably get blasted two or three times for some of my picks!

View Draft Results Here

Mike Kuchera - Fantasy Baseball Express ANALYSIS of picks and draft
R1 Prince Fielder - POWER! POWER! POWER! I love power in the first few rounds and I like the potential of Fielder hitting close to or slightly over .300!
R2 Joe Mauer - Some might not like Mauer this early but he's playing for a big contract (if he's not extended in the off season) and he's a lock to hit +.300! Throw in 20+HR and you have the best hitting catcher in the league. I'm also not much of a position scarcity guy but this was a chance to take care of catcher early with a good solid pick. I'm felling good about Mauer staying healthy at least 90% of the year. I was actually hoping Tex or Ryan Howard would have fallen so that I could have had back to back power guys, but they went before me so I was glad to take Fielder for the power and Mauer for the position scarcity.
R3 Justin Upton - Here is Carlos Beltran numbers in his prime but with a .300+ BA and home in a hitters park! Here is Matt Kemp numbers with more power in the 3rd round!!!!! That's value!
R4 Robinson Cano - I was actually looking Brian Roberts for the consistency and steals but Cano and Aaron Hill were on the board and I love the Yankees so I went with Cano who could realistically be a .300/25/100/100 guy in 2010. I was debating between Halladay and Cano here. I went with the 2B because of position scarcity and because I could get one of the few top 2B's. Also, if you remember, Roy Halladay was a round 8-9 pick last season, so you know this year there will be a few values later one (see below).
R5 Javier Vazquez - Top 6 starters already off the board. Debated for a while between Vazquez and Beckett. I went with Vazquez because of National League and superior in K's last season. I was also thinking Beckett might slip another round because of his so-so season last year.
R6 Carlos Beltran - If he has a normal Carlos Beltran year, that's .275/30/100/20, and that's 3rd round type numbers. I don't expect Beltran to steal 20 bases but I expect a decent year after last years injury riddled season. He's an injury risk of course, but he'll be completely healthy heading into spring training with something to prove. Great value here.
R7 Josh Beckett - I was hoping he'd slip and he did. Good solid SP who is an ace that drops a few rounds. Beckett could be the Halladay of 2009 fantasy wise meaning he's the guy you get later that can certainly perform above the normal fantasy expectations.
R8 Carlos Quentin - Comeback player of the year!!!! Lots of these type of guys out there this year. Big guy, 30+HR power, .400+ OBP potential, never K's, had a great August and September, and should be healthy heading into spring training!
R9 Michael Bourn - I normally don't go after the one dimensional guys this early but I know I could use a speed guy to load up on SB and he was the highest ranking player on the board. He wouldn't last another round and he's a sure thing for 50+ bases.
R10 Joakim Soria - Figured it was time to take the last somewhat solid closer.
R11 Brandon Webb - Another comeback player who has a top 5 arm.
R12 Roy Oswalt - I'm trying to load up on good quality SP's who are aces but who are getting older. I like these guys because they're experienced and if things go right, any of them can have a fantastic bounce back year. It happens all the time. Think Kevin Millwood in 2009...... and Webb and Oswalt are superstars compared to Millwood.
R13 Miguel Tejada - SS was running thin so I went with Miggy for the BA, run, and RBI consistentcy. I don't care if he's losing power. If he hits 15 HR, thats fine. As long as he gets 199 hits again he's a fantastic value here. Don't let experts brainwash you that Tejada's power is gone and he's done. He had 199 hits last year with a great BA and scored runs. So look at Tejada as a guy who can get you 15 HR and 90+RBI with a .300+BA assuming he has a solid year like he did last year. Don't draft Tejada for power this late and your getting a great value.
R14 Carlos Zambrano - C'mon!!!! Cy Young candidate in the 14th round??!!! What's going on this year?! I love Zambrano and he's still only 29 looking to rebound slightly in 2010. Nice sleeper here, if you can call Zambrano a sleeper.
R15 Paul Konerko - Power for my CI spot. Here's another guy that no one cares about anymore that can get you .270/25+/100 with 30+HR power.
R16 Carlos Delgado - Same as Delgado. Everyone was complaining at this point that power was at a premium this year and I just found two starting and now healthy 30+HR guys with something to prove in rounds 15 & 16.
R17 Marco Scutaro - Middle infield was thing and I was praying for Alcides Escobar for the steals and I missed so I went with Scutaro in Boston to just provide serviceable numbers and hopefully 15 HR with 80+runs depending where he bats.
R18 Frank Francisco - Last good closer with K potential on the board. These guys always wait until the last few rounds on a 2nd closer so I just jumped ahead of the pack.
R19 Jermaine Dye - Same reasoning here as Konerko/Delgado. I could have went with speed but saw a chance to nab another 25+HR from a starting OF!
R20 Jarrod Saltalamacchia - Probably my biggest risk of the draft but still young enough to finally break out. Plus, everyone was gone! Even Carlos Ruiz was gone!
R21 Jake Fox - Sleeper pick here with 25+HR potential at 3B or wherever he ends up playing. He'll be a full-time player too!
R22 Phil Hughes - Upside pick assuming Hughes cracks the rotation.
R23 Joe Saunders - A solid all around good starting pitcher who gets wins!

Final Thoughts
I love these expert drafts because most of these guys are interested in making the superstar pick, that one pick where everyone goes "oooh, great pick!". Me, I just like to draft as if this was a money league because I like to see what I could potentially get at different parts of the draft. What you see here is that there is a ton of good solid veteran pitching in the middle to late rounds. Chris R. Young in San Diego wasn't even drafted! Thats an undrafted ace (despite his injury problems last year) and he's still quite young! Look at where guys like Erik Bedard and Rich Harden were drafted. You could go all hitting in the first 10 rounds and load up your pitching staff with all risky ace type pitchers who are either coming back from injury or coming back from down years. That's one way to go. Yes, power is at a premium. You can't expect a guy to hit 40HR anymore outside of the 1st round. However, as you can see with my results, you can get 25-30+HR power in and after round 15 from established players! 2B/SS/MI goes quick. It's smart to use rounds 4-8 to grab a top 10 guy at each position. Load up on power early, take a look at scarcity as you go and adjust. The overall exciting talent pool drops off considerably around round 10. After that, there's no real rhyme or reason as to who people are drafting. This is when you stop and look what positions are thin and start planning on who to pick late and when. If you make too many upside risky picks early (before round 10), your going to find out later that your team stinks. There's just not much consistency later in the draft. Its all risk, potential and upside. Take good solid players early this year and load up on risk in the 2nd half of the draft...... but that's just me.

Good luck this year!
FM