Tuesday, March 20, 2007

Cardinals Pitchers Getting No Love?? - A Question from My Inbox..

Hey Mikey,
Why are the Cards pitchers (namely Wainwright and Reyes ) getting NO LOVE in the drafts this season? I think they will forget Marquis, Weaver and Suppan very quickly. The Cardinals are the equivalent in Hockey to the Detroit Red Wings......they FIND new and better pitchers to replace the average guys!
- Aceman

Fantasy Man Email Response: Not sure! I certainly am giving them love!!! I think Wainwright will be fantastic this season! I mean anyone who has seen him pitch on television during the postseason or has seen him pitch this spring, should know that he is going to out perform the expectations of "other experts" which are close to 11-13 wins, 4.00 ERA, 150K, 1.30WHIP in 150 IP. There is one magazine, who will remain nameless, that published its magazine in February for a March release and projects Wainwrights numbers as 7W, 8SV, 82K, 3.28ERA, 1.22WHIP. I would think if he turned out to be the closer, he would be a 30SV guy and if he turned out to be a starter, he would attract more than 7 wins as a projection. I think people just have not actually sat down and watched this guy pitch, including some "experts" and magazine publishers. He's simply looks in mid-season form and has great poise on the mound. I think the Cards want Wainwright to be their rock behind Carpenter finishing surprisingly to the tune of 15 wins, 3.50ERA, 175K, 1.25WHIP in 180IP with more upside potential.... that is The Fantasy Man's modest projection!

On a side note, don't leave Braden Looper out of the mix either. Here are their springs stats at the moment... ..

Wainwright: 16.2IP, 1.08 ERA, 6K, 4BB, 2ER, 12H, 0HR - Fantasy Drafts: Gone by 15th Auctions: $5 - $10
Reyes: 10IP, 0.90ERA, 6K, 2BB, 1ER, 2H, 1HR - Fantasy Drafts: Can be had after 14th Auctions: $1-$5
Looper: 14IP, 3.21ERA, 6K, 3BB, 5ER, 17H, 1HR - Fantasy Drafts: Going Undrafted Auctions: $1 if Drafted

Point here is that these guys deserve a bit of lovin'. We all know that we should take spring stats with a grain of salt, especially early spring stats. These next two weeks are the key. If these guys continue this spring tear, then you have some mighty sleepers to look out for. It is known that in the beginning of spring training, most pitchers are pitching against minor league players and that's why we have to be careful when looking at early stats. T the same time, most pitchers are working on new pitches, mechanics, or just getting their bodies ready, so we cannot get crazy about bad spring stats from guys like Kazmir, Cain, and Bonderman for example. Isn't it funny that when a star player has a bad spring, its because he is working on things, but when a young player is doing well, its because he is not facing Major Leaguers. Just some food for thought. Anyway, these last two weeks we will see more and more of the everyday starters and is the true test for most before the season starts. if you have a draft one or shortly before April 1st, you have a real advantage to catch up on your spring stats and have an effective draft.

Thanks for the great question Aceman!

Fantasy Baseball Express

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