Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Johan Santana to the Mets?

According to Bob Nightengale of Usa Today , The Twins and Mets have agreed on a deal to send Johan Santana to the Mets in exchange for prospects Carlos Gomez, Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey, and Deolis Guerra.

"The deal is pending the Mets and Santana reaching agreement on a six- or seven-year contract extension and that Santana passes a physical; they have been granted a 48 to-72-hour window to do so. Santana has a no-trade clause that he will waive if agreement is reached on a contract extension" according to USA Today.

Fantasy wise, this deal has some sweet implications. With Santana, you now have a possible 20 game winner on a winning team with a decent bullpen. In Minnesota, we projected Santana to be a 15-18 game winner, but now with the Mets, 20+ games is possible. Santana should jump into the end of the first round in most normal 12 team drafts while still commanding close to $35 in the auction. Make sure you do not get caught up in the hype. Santana was still a $35 player even if he stayed with the Twins, so don't get stuck in a bidding war. Although there are a few differences that could help Santana have a better fantasy season, its not enough to over pay for. You get potentially a few extra wins, that's about it. ERA/WHIP should still be stellar and you'll still get 200+K. Minnesota is a nice picther's park but Shea isn't too bad either. The grass infield at Shea and the wider dimensions at the Metrodome are a wash. Playing on grass as opposed to the 'rug' should actually help slow the ball down a bit and decrease Santana's overall ground balls that sneak through the holes.

As for the Twins with Carlos Gomez, the current outfield is listed as Craig Monroe, Delmon Young, and Mike Cuddyer. There's no guarantee that Carlos Gomez will start in LF or RF. However, the infield currently consists of 3B Mike Lamb, SS Adam Everett, and 2B Nick Punto so there's a chance Lamb or Punto become utility players shifting Cuddyer to 3B and creating space for Gomez. Or, there's a possibility no one moves and Gomez has to out play Monroe. Don't get too hyped up with this deal, chances are that Gomez will start the year in Triple A. If that's the case, he's a candidate to be called up for good by mid-season assuming he tears up the minors. If I have room, I might draft Gomez as a late round flier or for a buck and stash on my bench.

Phil Humber hasn't proved he can handle the big leagues yet but he does have some talent. He'll most likely start the year in Triple A as well. Maybe Humber is someone to grab in leagues with minor league systems or in deep dynasty leagues but for playing time he'll have to beat out Scott Baker, Glen Perkins, and Nick Blackburn who all have a shot at the 4th and 5th spots with Santana gone. Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra are talented prospects but should not be drafted in normal leagues.

Have a keeper league and need help deciding on who to pick or trade? Possibly as a direct result of this trade? Email me

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