Monday, February 04, 2008

B.J. Upton vs. Alex Rios

Are you guys sick of me talking about B.J. Upton yet? I received this question today and responded and I thought it would make a great post, so here it is! By the way, how about dem Giants! In one word..... UNBELIEVABLE!

Question:
FM, Hey man, I'm just curious about something. Why do you choose B.J. Upton (2B, OF) over Alex Rios (OF)? I've looked at top 300 lists everywhere, and the two of them are rated back-to-back in almost every list I've seen, and they both appear pretty much the same. One big thing I see is the amount of experience Rios has over Upton..... Rios now batting in the middle of the order and having more RBI potential, while Upton possibly has more SB potential.

Answer:
Thats a great question. That is what makes Fantasy Baseball Express & The Fantasy Man different, our rankings try to be different than everyone elses! I am actually pretty high on Upton as everyone should know by now. I rank Upton higher because I feel he has a higher ceiling than Alex Rios. Rios, even if he moves to the 3rd slot, is still a probable .290/20/20/100/100 player. Maybe he will hit 25 HR this year and I don't quite see him hitting 30, but hopefully I'm wrong. The move also gives Rios 100+ RBI potential. So when you put it all together, I see Rios doing .290/20/20/100/100 with potential to do .300/25/100/20 or more.

Now onto B.J. Upton, who is only 23, and has a much higher ceiling in my opinion. Also, Upton is eligibile to play 2B, which is a HUGE advantage. Last year, Upton showed us that he can be a .300/20/20/90/90 guy in less than 500 AB, but he also showed potential to be a .300/30/30/100/100 type of player with those extra 100+AB and with the multiple position eligibility, especially at a weak position, is just icing on the cake. Say what you want about Upton being lucky, striking out a lot, and so on, but at age 23, I can only see Upton getting better, not worse. I truly believe we haven't see the best of his potential.


Now, I do like Rios a lot, but Rios was supposed to have a bigger break out last season than he actually did in 2007. Plus, if Rios moves into the 3rd slot,there's a risk his SB's could fall below the 20 mark.

Overall, I rank Upton higher than Rios for these three factors... the multiple position eligibility, the 3-4 year difference in age, and the fact that Upton has a higher overall ceiling for potential fantasy stats.

Great Question. Thanks! - FM

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