Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Would you drop Pujols?

About two weeks ago I posted on this blog about the situation with Albert Pujols and his bum elbow. Now, two weeks later, I'm stuck with a decision to keep Pujols @ $45 for this season in one of my keeper leagues....

Here's my current list of possibilities:
Albert Pujols $45
Ryan Howard $24
Victor Martinez $15
Mike Lowell $1
Alex Gordon $4
Chone Figgins $26
Jake Peavy $27
Grady Sizemore $40
Oliver Perez $1
Kevin Slowey $1
Matt Garza $1
Carlos Zambrano $23
Felix Hernandez $20

Those are the hopefuls. This is an 8 keeper league, 12 team, $260 salary cap, roto, mixed, 5x5 league but it only has 1C, 4 OF and 7 P as opposed to the normal 2C, 5OF and 9P. All ofther positions are the normal. The rest of the salary goes to 5 bench players.

So the narrowing process begins and here are my thoughts....
1. I have plenty of high powered stars in Pujols, Howard, Sizemore and Peavy. All are expensive but I feel I can keep all and still have a good auction in the end because a lot of the cheap players I like to target should be available.... but wait...
2. Matt Garza is the first one to go. With all of this talent, there is no need to keep Garza and Slowey and Perez. So Garza is out.
3. Howard is an obvious keeper at $24.
4. Figgins is a bit overpriced but SB's are at a premium in this league so I'll hold onto him at $26. But now I have the league's top power threat and a 50+SB guy and my SB horse which works towards my drafting for categories strategy.
5. I've been trying to trade Peavy at $27 all off-season but nobody is biting. He's on the block and a borderline keeper at the moment.
6. Mike Lowell is a no brainer keeper at a buck.
7. Hernandez and Zambrano will both go for $18-$23 at the auction, so there's no point in keeping them if I can get just get them again later for the same price. The object here is to keep whats undervalued.....which is SB's, saves, and top notch cheap players who will go for plenty more in the auction. With this being said, I love the potentials of Oliver Perez and Kevin Slowey, both who could put up better than expected numbers this season and worth the risk at $1 each.
8. VMart at $15 is half the price he should be so he's another no brainer.
9. So far we have Howard, VMart, Figgins, Lowell, Perez, and Slowey which leaves two spots for Pujols, Gordon, Peavy and Sizemore.
10. With Sizemore, he's at market value and may be a few dollars cheaper in the draft so I am feeling like I can drop him and go after him in the auction if he's at a good price.
11. Peavy at $27, considering some people think he's better than Santana (Crazy people think that), considering the year he had in 2007, $27 is a great price nontheless so I think I will keep him. The deciding factor here is that I don't want to go into the auction with just Slowey and Perez even though I already know that Zambrano and Hernandez will be available.
12. That leaves us with Pujols and Gordon for that 8th spot. Obviously, price wise, Gordon is undervalued at $4 and Pujols is at about market value at $45. What I do know about this league is that most managers don't overpay for power and big names. Last year I drafted Mark Teixiera for $30, that's undervaluing a big power bat. So, with that being said, I'm thinking if I really wanted Pujols, I can still get him in the $40-$45 range. However, now with the elbow scare, I'm not sure I want to take a $45 risk. So what I plan to do is drop him, hope everyone else shys away from Pujols and grab him at a price under $40. Then, even if he gets hurt and misses half the season, there's a possibility I could have Pujols for under $40 when he returns in 2009...if that's the case. Even if he plays half the season in 2008, I'll get those stats and then I will just find a replacement which shouldn't be too hard.

So with all of that being said, here are my 8 keepers for this particular auction league I am participating in....
1. Ryan Howard $24
2. Victor Martinez $15
3. Mike Lowell $1
4. Alex Gordon $4
5. Chone Figgins $26
6. Jake Peavy $27
7. Oliver Perez $1
8. Kevin Slowey $1

What do you guys think?? Comments/ Suggestions?

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