Thursday, October 30, 2008

2009 Fantasy Baseball Big Name Movers

This offseason is shaping up to be quite exciting when thinking about the big name free agents and possible movers heading into 2009. I was on the treadmill at the gym this afternoon bustin' out some calories while watching a report on ESPN about some of the big names who might be looking for new homes. As I am sure many of you may have seen this, I just want to take it a step further and throw in my two cents based on what you should expect for your 2009 fantasy baseball draft.

C.C. Sabathia
Possible Teams: Yankees, Red Sox, Brewers, Dodgers

Sabathia will command the most money this off-season. Analysts from all over feel like the Yankees will pull out all the stops and just kill the other bidders to get C.C. and while that's possible, I don't necessarily see it as such a no-brainer as everyone else. We all know I'm a Yankee fan so I can tell you that right now, the 2009 rotation already consists of Chen-Ming Wang, Joba Chamberlain, Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina, and Phil Hughes. However, we still don't know if Mike Mussina will pick up his option or if Andy Pettite wants to return or not. I think we'll know however in the next couple of days. If either Pettitte or Mussina crap out, you can expect the Yankees to go balls to the wall to get Sabathia. I don't see the Red Sox getting him at all, the Brewers probably won't pony up as much dough as the Yankees and the Dodgers actually have shown some interest but we have to see what the Dodgers do about Manny first.
The Fantasy Man says: There is a lot of hype with Sabathia for the 2009 season as he was lights out down the stretch for the Brewers. Some in fantasy circles have already said they think he is better than Johan Santana. I have to disagree. Yes, you can compare 2008 numbers but you'd have to be a fool to draft someone who was playing in a contract year over the consistency of a Johan Santana. Period! Expect Sabathia, Santana, Peavy, Hamels, and Lincecum to all be gone by the end of the 3rd round at the latest in a 12 team mixed league draft. If you ask me right now, I'd say Johan Santana is the safest 2nd round pick of that bunch, hands down. C.C. has only pitched 200+IP in only two years in his major league career (2002 & 2007). I'm not saying to pass on Sabathia, but be cautious when jumping the gun because once he gets his dough, I don't think he'll repeat his 2008 numbers with a new team in 2009, especially if he moves back to the American League. So I'd rather take Santana or Lincecum before I jump on Sabathia.
C.C. Sabathia 2009 Projection: 17W/200K/3.20ERA/1.15WHIP

Mark Teixiera

Possible Teams: Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles, Angels
The Yankees will lose Jason Giambi and their only decent first baseman. I'm sure the Yankees could afford both Sabathia and Teixiera being that Giambi carried quite the salary that they could easily just swap Giambi with Tex. If the Yankees got Santana, they would have paid him while paying Giambi last season so I can see them getting both players. The Red Sox already have Kevin Youkilis at 1B while David Ortiz atDH and Mike Lowell at 3B. But with Lowell and Ortiz nursing injuries this year, there is talk that Tex could fit in the picture, but I don't think the Red Sox will get serious other than trying to drive up the price for the Yankees. Tex is from Maryland and Baltimore wants Tex bad, but again, you have to beat out the Yankees. I don't see the Angels keeping Tex.
The Fantasy Man says: No matter where Tex ends up, you should expect the normal .300/30-35/120+ with a late 1st round early second round draft pick. You should also expect a slow start as Tex is a perennial second half player!

Manny Ramirez
Possible Teams: Dodgers, Yankees, Angels, Mets
Did you know that Manny is from the Bronx? This one is the biggest mystery so far this off-season. Where will Manny go? I think the Dodgers will keep him, just a gut feeling. I would love Manny on the Yankees but if they go for C.C. and Tex, there is no way they get Manny. If they miss on C.C. or Tex, then yes, the Yankees could be an option. There is also talk that Manny could be persuaded to move to Philadelphia and reunite with old hitting coach Charlie Manual. However, out off all the teams that need Manny, I feel the Mets would be the best suitor and benefit the most, but
Jon Heyman, Sports Illustrated Senior Writer, said on WFAN's Mike Francesa show, that the Mets are a "longshot".
The Fantasy Man says: Last year we all thought Manny Ramirez was on the decline, so we waited until as late as the 4th or 5th rounds to draft Manny. Now, with an amazing second half and all the hype of a new contract, we may draft Manny as early as the late second round as some experts did here in this League of Champions Slow Mock Draft. I love Manny, always have, but I feel like we'll be disappointed if we jump too high on Manny. I can justify a 3rd round pick considering his age but early to mid 2nd round is still to early for me, especially since now he won't be playing for a contract, and we all know Manny likes to be Manny....and I'll leave it at that. This means I might be passing up players like Santana, Fielder, Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Beltran and others who are usually late 2nd round type players. Manny obviously can hit with these guys, but they are all younger all won't have just gotten paid with a brand new contract.
Manny Ramirez 2009 Projection: .290/32/120

Francisco Rodriguez
Possible Teams: Angels, Mets, Dodgers, Cardinals
I just threw the Cardinals in there for fun, why not?? They would be perfect, but I am sure they probably won't spend the money. I don't think the Yankees would be in the running. I say the Dodgers because even though they have Broxton, we saw in the post season that maybe he can be replaced. I happen to think Broxton will be the closer for the Dodgers in 2009. That leaves the Mets and the Cardinals. The fans of
New York's sports talk radio are already ranting and raving that K-Rod should be on top of their list, along with the rest of these guys. To be honest, I can't see the Angels wanting to let go of K-Rod so I think he stays. Otherwise, he'll be a Met.
The Fantasy Man says: Mets or Angels, he's not breaking his record. He'll get his money and then he'll come back to earth and save maybe 40 - 45 games again and be your typical K-Rod, simple as that. In normal mixed league drafts, he'll be gone by the late 4th round, which is usually when a top closer will go. K-Rod will be the first off the board, over Jonathon Papelbon.

Jake Peavy
Possible Teams: Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox

Peavy is not a free agent this year but there is talk that Peavy is willing to waive his no-trade clause for the right team. Most are saying he'd most likely go to the Dodgers but I just can't see the Padres making a deal with a team in the same division. Plus, they'd probably have to give up some of their young players which include Matt Kemp, Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, Blake DeWitt, etc. We don't know yet if he'd waive it to go to New York but a trade to the Bronx for say Melky Cabrera and Ian Kennedy sounds like a great idea. Heck, give them Robinson Cano if you want. If the Yankees miss out on Sabathia, this seems like a no brainer to me if Peavy allows it.
The Fantasy Man says: Any trade to a better team instantly puts Peavy back in the second round of your mixed league draft with Johan Santana and now C.C. Sabathia. Otherwise, if he stays in San Diego, he'll probably slip into the late third where you might think about scooping him up. Problem is, if he stays in San Diego, a third round pick seems a bit of a stretch since he won't win much. If you're in a H2H league that counts losses, then fugetaboutit....
Jake Peavy 2009 Projection: In SD - 14W/3.10/1.20 - Elsewhere - 18W/2.90/1.10 (Playing for a contract!)

Matt Holliday
Possible Teams
: Yankees, Mets, Angels

The trade talks are popping up again and Jon Heyman (see the link above) mentioned that the Yankees are talking internally about Holliday, and why wouldn't they? Holliday would be a great fit in New York and it's about time they go after some top-notch younger players. Why not give the Rockies the Melkman and Ian Kennedy? Let's make it happen! The Mets are also desperate for corner outfielders and a trade to Queens makes sense as well. If a trade happens, it's to New York, no question about it.
The Fantasy Man says: Whether Holliday lands in New York or stays put, he's still a late first round - early second round pick. If he lasts later, your league mates are idiots and you'll win your league by a mile! Holliday was a top 5 pick in 2008, had a decent year but power was down as he nursed some injuries. Look for Holliday to redeem himself this year as he'll be somewhat of a bargain as compared to last year. You can take that to the bank. Coors or no Coors, Holliday is the real deal no matter where he ends up and he shouldn't last past the 15th pick, period!

Matt Holliday 2009 Projection: .320/30/110/20

Other Notables Today:

- 1B Mike Jacobs was traded to the Kansas City Royals today for Pitcher Leo Nunez. When thinking about your fantasy draft and sleepers, there is now an open corner spot in the Florida infield which you can look at for a sleeper. Before the trade, Jorge Cantu and Jacobs clogged the corners while Dallas McPherson was busy having a fantastic year in Triple-A batting .274/42/98 with a .379 OBP and 76 BB in 448 AB. What's alarming though is the 168 K's. It looks like McPherson and Cantu are the two corner guys going into 2009 as of now but I wouldn't be too concerned with the K's. If you want to take a chance on McPherson, which I think is only a moderate risk with a ton of power potential, I'd say you can grab him sometime after the 17th round in a 12 team mixed league draft. For best results, expect a season of .265/25/80 with potential at 28 years old to break out and go .275/30/95+. Think of him as an Adam Dunn with a slightly better batting average.

- Edgar Renteria's contract was not renewed by Detroit and it will be interesting to see where Renteria could end up. I actually think Baltimore would make a great destination as they haven't had a real SS since Miguel Tejada left. Some other teams that need shortstops are the Twins and maybe the Reds. The Twins don't usually spend money and who knows what the Reds are planning to do in this off-season. If I had to guess today, I'd say the Orioles. Add Mark Teixiera and all of a sudden Baltimore has a studly looking offense with Nick Markakis, Aubrey Huff and Adam Jones. If Baltimore were to sign Tex, the value of Nick Markakis in fantasy leagues would most likely rise a round or two.

GET READY!!! The Fantasy Man's 2009 Fantasy Baseball Advice is coming!
Tune in to The Fantasy Man's 3rd Annual Thanksgiving Day Extravanagnza Podcast choc' full o' free fantasy advice to help you win your 2009 fantasy baseball league to included 2009 Sleepers, specific draft strategies, and much more. Go to iTunes or your favorite Podcasting website and search "Fantasy Baseball" or "The Fantasy Man"!

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

The Fantasy Man is Offically Running for President!

The Fantasy Man is running for President!!!! I'm trying to get all the votes I can and then maybe we can get a real presidential candidate in here who will actually get the job done! All I'm asking for is your vote.....

Vote here......

Thanks for your support!

The Fantasy Man

Tuesday, October 07, 2008

The Fantasy Man's 2009 Outfield OF Rankings

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The Fantasy Man's 2009 Fantasy Baseball Outfield OF Rankings

Ryan Braun, MIL - He'll hit .300+ with 35/120 and 15-20 SB....
Grady Sizemore, CLE - Might be the best value after the first 6 or 7 players are gone, does it all, still young, still more upside
Josh Hamilton, TEX - Could be gone by the end of the first round
Matt Holliday, COL - Down year, may slide into 2nd round for you to steal
Carlos Quentin, CWS - I like his potential to match 2008, should be gone by the end of the 2nd round in drafts

Carlos N. Lee, HOU - Having a killer year before he hurt his pinky
Manny Ramirez, LAD - May slide a bit from '08 numbers but still a top 36 pick
Alfonso Soriano, CHC - 40/40 days are over, 30/30 is possible, I'm projecting 30/25
Carlos Beltran, NYM - Numbers look normal but he killed fantasy owners in the 1st half
B.J. Upton, TB - 9 HR in '08?? Upton was a mess but he still ran, look for the power to increase

Ichiro Suzuki, SEA - Same ole with Ichiro, .300+/10/50/40+SB/100+R/200+H
Matt Kemp, LAD - .300/20/100/40 /100 potential but needs to get K's down (153 in '08)

Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS - Could be the closest thing to a Sizemore type minus 10 HR but plus 15 SB and a better BA
Carl Crawford, TB - I think he is what he is, a .300/15/80/40/100runs type of hitter
Vladimir Guerrero, LAA - He's on the way down but could have a Manny like resurgence in 2009
Curtis Granderson, DET - .300/20/20/100 potential, durable, great lineup
Magglio Ordonez, DET - .300/25/100 a lock if healthy
Jason Bay, BOS - A real team behind him, the Green Monster, could be a .290/30/100/10 guy again

Nick Markakis, BAL - Power and SB's were down in 2008, look for a boost in overall numbers
Alex Rios, TOR - This is the year for the power break out, hit 11 of his 15 HR in 2nd half and comes cheaper on draft day
Nate McLouth, PIT - Fantasy Man's sleeper of the year in '08, .280/20/20 possible again
Corey Hart, MIL - 20/20 easily but needs to get K's down and BA up a bit
Shane Victorino, PHI - .280/15/75/35/100 is the norm for Victorino
Adam Dunn, ARI - 35+ HR power, with -.250 BA

Bobby Abreu, NYY - If he stays with Yanks, .290/20/100/20 realistic again, super durable
Ryan Ludwick, STL - 146K in 2008, I don't see him coming close to last year's numbers

Hunter Pence, HOU - Big 2nd half gave us some hope, K's alot but has 30HR potential
Jermaine Dye, CWS - .275/30/100 is great in the 10th round
Torii Hunter, LAA - 2008 numbers more like it rather than 2007 numbers
Vernon Wells, TOR - A nice sleeper for '09, hit .300/20/78 in only 427 AB
Johnny Damon, NYY - Mr. Consistentcy with .300/15/75/25/100runs as usual

Milton Bradley, TEX - If he stays healthy, he could pass '08 numbers...but he can't stay healthy
Brad Hawpe, COL - .290/20+/90+ with room to grow
Jay Bruce, CIN - Potential to be a god or a bust, could be Evan Longoria or could be Alex Gordon
Rick Ankiel, STL - Has .280/40+HR power if he can stay healthy, contract year!! The Josh Hamilton of 2009

Andre Ethier, LAD - Second hottest player in the 2nd half (Choo)
Pat Burrell, PHI - The usual .280/30/100 projection with at least a one month slump at some point
Raul Ibanez, PHI - .290/25/100 type of player, consistent
Lastings Milledge, WAS - If he stays healthy could be a 20/20 guy
Jayson Werth, PHI - Hit 27 HR after starting out as a part timer in 2008, will play full-time in 2009.

Delmon Young, MIN - Bring on the power!!! If he hits 20+ HR, he'll have been a steal on draft day
Nelson R. Cruz, TEX - Will be high on everyone's sleeper list after hitting 39HR in AAA in '08
Justin Upton, ARI - Has the potential to be great, but don't overdraft, he has a lot of maturing to do
Adam Jones, BAL - FM Sleeper, could move up 10-15 spots this season

Elijah Dukes, WAS - FM sleeper, 30/30 potential if he stays healthy
Denard Span, MIN - Quiet performer with .280/20/80/30/100runs potential with a full season

Willy Tavares, COL - Has .280/50+ SB potential
Xavier Nady, NYY - Will either match last season or fall just shy of expectations
Kosuke Fukodome, CHC - 2nd year in league should produce better results
J.D. Drew, BOS - Same ole same ole with Drew, nothing has changed, don't expect a full season

Hideki Matsui, NYY - A healthy Matsui is a .300/20/100/100 hitter
Chris B. Young, ARI - Same ole with Young, 20/20 potential with a super low BA
Mark DeRosa, CHC - Offers versatility and consistency
Josh Willingham, FLA - Has .280/20/90 potential
Travis Snider, TOR - Top prospect could steal the LF job with a solid spring
Randy Winn, SF - Same solid numbers year in and year out
Ryan Church, NYM - If he's healthy, could be a .290/20/90 guy
Fred Lewis, SF - .280/12/60RBI/30SB/100R possible, solid player late in draft

Eric Brynes, ARI - I wouldn't expect more than 30 SB in his comeback year
Jeremy Hermida, FLA - He busted almost as bad as Francoeur but potential is there

Jeff Francoeur, ATL - K's a lot but could be a huge value on draft day if he puts it together in 09
Ty Wigginton, HOU - You'll get versatility and 20+HR
Luke Scott, BAL - Will hit around .270 but has 20HR pop

Jose Guillen, KC - Has .290/25/95+ potential
Mike Cameron, MIL - Always the potential for a 20/20 season with a low BA
Jack Cust, OAK - Move up 10-15 spots in an OBP league with no BA category

Nick Swisher, CWS - Low BA, solid power potential
Josh Anderson, ATL - Has .300/40+Sb potential if he starts full-time in CF
Shin-Soo Choo, CLE - No one was hotter in 2nd half than Choo
Daniel Murphy, NYM - Should be a full-timer in '09 either at 2B or in the OF with .280/15HR potential
Carlos Gomez, MIN - Blazing speed but still maturing, could be a nice value pick late in keeper leagues

Michael Bourn, HOU - Blazing speed but BA is a killer
Aaron Rowand, SF - Decent all-around numbers but 2008 was a down year with a poor offense

Ben Francisco, CLE - .280/15/75/10 is a decent projection with room to grow if he can hold off LaPortaSkip Schumaker, STL - Should continue to be the lead off guy for the Cards
Mike Cuddyer, MIN - OF is crowded with Span but could ply 3B or DH
Jerry Hairston, CIN - He's an enigma, you never know what you'll get....
Brent Gardner, NYY - If he gets the CF job, he could realistically hit .280+ with 30+SB
Cody Ross, FLA - Has 20+HR pop if he holds onto the job
David DeJesus, KC - Serviceable in AL only and deep mixed leagues
Chris Dickerson, CIN - Suprising second half in '08 gets him the starting CF job in '09
Adam Lind, TOR - Will bounce between OF and DH, has .300+/20HR potential
Brandon Jones, ATL - If he beats out Matt Diaz, he's got potential
Garret Anderson, LAA - Serviceable in AL only leagues

Mark Teahen, KC - Serviceable in AL only leagues, we're all losing patience, there's talk he could play 2B in 2009

Coco Crisp, BOS - Used for defense, 4th OF
DeWayne Wise, CWS - A 4th OF with some potential
Jim Edmonds, FA - Serviceable
Brian Giles, SD - Serviceable in NL only leagues
Travis Buck, OAK - has .300+ potential if he can stay on the field
Nyjer Morgan, PIT - Has 30+SB potential with a full season
Carlos Gonzalez, OAK - Oakland OF crowded with young OF's, but he has the most talent
Brandon Moss, OAK - He's decent, draft as a reserve
Wladimir Balentein, SEA - If Seattle moves Jeremy Reed to 1B/DH, Wlad will get a spot
Jerry Owens, CWS - Has to beat out Wise

Monday, October 06, 2008

The Fantasy Man's 2009 Third Base 3B Rankings

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The Fantasy Man's 2009 Third Base 3B Rankings

Alex Rodriquez, NYY - Still The Fantasy Man's overall, best, most consistent fantasy player
David Wright, NYM - Top 6 draft pick depending on preference
Miguel Cabrera, DET - Look for Cabrera to increase his AVG
Evan Longoria, TB - Risky this high up but he can be Braun-like or Beltre-like
Chipper Jones, ATL - Can he stay healthy? Probably not, but he's worth a spot on your roster when he is.

Aramis Ramirez, CHC - He won't hit 40 HR, 25-30 seems like a good estimate with solid all-around numbers
Russell Martin, LAD - Played 11 games at 3B so he qualifies in some leagues with 10 games or more, but I wouldn't draft him as your primary 3B

Garrett Atkins, COL - Solid, consistent, and durable
Aubrey Huff, BAL - Should be a decent value in drafts this year with 30+HR power

Jorge Cantu, FLA - 2008 was a bounce-back year and he's still pretty young
Chone Figgins, LAA - Comeback player of the year vote in 2009 with 50+SB potential!
Chris Davis, TEX - Rookie with superstar potential but 88K in 295 AB is a little silly
Ryan Zimmerman, WAS - 2008 was a blur, look for Zimmerman to step it up in 2009, plain and simple
Alex Gordon, KC - There is still time for a break out and 2009 being his 3rd full year could be it
Mark Reynolds, ARI - If he didn't hit .239 with 204 K, he'd be a superstar in the making! Has 30+ HR/100+RBI power
Mark DeRosa, CLE - Position eligibility at 2B/3B/OF and solid all-around player
Hank Blalock, TEX - Another comeback player of the year vote in 2009
Edwin Encarnacion, CIN - I'm beginning to think he's not a .300+ guy......
Carlos Guillen, DET - Eligibile at 1B/3B. If he can stay healthy, he'll have a typical Guillen year minus a few for age at .290/15/90/15
Dallas McPherson, FLA - 35+HR potential will get a chance to play everyday in 2009.

Troy Glaus, STL - Big power if he can stay healthy, will be a great value late in the draft
Mike Lowell, BOS - Fenway is built for Lowell and a healthy season could show 2007 like numbers again

Kevin Kouzmanoff, SD - Still young to prove he can be a .300 hitter with 20+HR power
Adrian Beltre, SEA - A healthy Beltre will give you the same lame ole production, but solid if you draft late
Ian Stewart, COL - Also played 12 games at 2B, has 20+HR power if he plays everyday

Melvin Mora, BAL - Getting older but still a solid value pick at the end of the draft
Casey Blake, LAD - Gives the same production every year and you can grab at the end of the draft or on wire
Blake DeWitt, LAD - If he plays everyday somewhere, he could jump up this ranking above Encarnacion
Andy LaRoche, PIT - Maybe a 20+HR guy but hasn't been able to put anything together yet

Pedro Feliz, PHI - He's okay, waiver wire material if you are desperate
Scott Rolen, TOR - He can't stay healthy
Ty Wigginton, HOU - Same as Rolen but always gives you 20 HR
Bill Hall, MIL - Most athletic guy on this list, but he is not a good hitter fantasy wise, plus Mat Gamel breathing down his neck!
Mat Gamel, MIL - The Brewers to hitting prospect, needs work on defense before he's called up!
Brian Buscher, MIN - Good hitter for BA but not much power