Tuesday, December 09, 2008

The Fantasy Man's 2009 Starting Pitchers SP Rankings

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The Fantasy Man's 2009 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers SP Rankings


Johan Santana - Despite all the hype of Sabathia and Lincecum, I'm going "safety first", you can't miss with Johan in R2
Tim Lincecum - 200+K possible again and oh so young! I might jump on him in R2 only in keeper and dynasty leagues
C.C. Sabathia - He'll have a lot of hype, but he's a great 3rd round pick!
Roy Halladay
- I upgrade Halladay because he's a safe bet, monster size, tantalizing stuff.Brandon Webb - See Roy Halladay but in a hitters home park
Jake Peavy - Injury risk knocks him down a bit for me, may leave Petco, but he's just as good as the top 3
Cole Hamels - I like Hamels but I am scared of the added innings he pitched in the post season, period
Dan Haren
- Has top 5 ability but less hype means better value for you, grab late R4/early R5
Josh Beckett - Injuries last year have Beckett falling as late as the 7th round in early mocks, take advantage of that
Scott Kazmir - I love Kazmir but he walks a lot and has trouble going deep into games because he throws so many pitches
John Lackey - Assuming he's healthy, he could be a CY Young candidate
Cliff Lee - Can he win 20+ again? Maybe, but I'd be careful. Is he a Mike Hampton or is he for real?
Carlos Zambrano - Big Z always gets pushed down, he's hungry and he's mean and always has a spot on my team, grab in the 8th if your lucky
Chad Billingsley - He's only going to get better......
Francisco Liriano - In line for a huge break out this season!
Ervin Santana - Break out last season, should stay on pace to be about the same, seems to last to R8 in drafts
Roy Oswalt - Always a solid SP and good value if you can draft him between R7-R9
Jon Lester - Another SP with a chance to have a monster break out
Felix Hernandez - Is this the year? The stuff is there but the team is not
Joba Chamberlain - Unbelievable stuff, K's and WHIP should be fantastic but won't pitch 200+IP
James Shields - Solid all-around SP, great WHIP candidate, 180+K potential
Daisuke Matsuzaka - Low ERA, high K's, but the price is a high WHIP of 1.30+ potentially, getting better though, this could be his best season yet
Rich Harden - a monster injury risk but high risk comes with super high reward
Edinson Volquez - I have no idea if he is for real or not, if he slips past the 10th round it's a solid value
Matt Cain - Still a R10-R13 guy, 200+K potential and now what seems like a much better team, he's a huge middle of the draft sleeper
A.J. Burnett - I think he'll be as good as 2008 with the Yankees
Yovani Gallardo - He could be stellar after coming back from a knee injury, he's been fantastic with every opportunity
Ricky Nolasco - Nice sleeper this year, last years numbers are surprising
David Price - Expect a few growing pains but could have a Tim Lincecum type impact
Justin Verlander - He's a fantastic value! Should bounce back in 2009
Aaron Harang - Same as Verlander, fantastic value, can be had in R14, innings eater with 200K potential
Zack Greinke - Still young enough to get better, great stuff, let's see him stay consistent again this year
Ben Sheets - Huge injury risk but if healthy, he can be an ace. draft knowing you need back ups
Adam Wainwright - could sport fantastic ERA/WHIP numbers
Brett Myers - I'm not a big fan of Myers but assuming he's healthy and right, he's a potential 200IP/180K guy
Chein-Ming Wang - Low K's but 20 win potential on the Yankees
Chris R. Young - See Aaron Harang, pitchers ball park but team stinks, new closer, might not see many wins
Matt Garza - Great young keeper potential, should be a little more consistent this season
John Smoltz - Might be a nice Grab & Stash candidate, should make the end of Boston's rotation if healthy
Ryan Dempster - I don't think he repeats 2008, but I do think he'll be pretty decent at least in the first half
Josh Johnson - If he can get that WHIP under 1.25, which I think he will, he'll be fantastic
Erik Bedard - Huge injury risk but let's see if he'll be ready for opening day first
Ted Lilly - Lilly is just a solid mixed league SP
Gavin Floyd - Filthy stuff, I see him getting better this year
Kevin Slowey - Another sleeper in my book, great WHIP and 180+K potential
Mike Pelfrey - can only get better
Scott Baker - Getting better and better each year, great sleeper value
Ubaldo Jimenez - He was fantastic in September, has filthy stuff, monster size, young, but still plays home games at Coors
Max Scherzer - He could be amazing, not as good as Price or Joba, but maybe close
Brandon Morrow - Has been said to have Joba/Papelbon/Broxton type stuff, will be a starter this year
Clayton Kershaw - Should only get better
Derek Lowe - Another guy I'm not a fan of, great real life player but inconsistent in fantasy
Justin Ducscherer - Low ERA/WHIP potential, not a lot of K's, huge injury risk

John Maine - If he's healthy, could be a nice value in R15 or later
Jair Jurrjens - Just a good solid SP, won't kill you in any category
Fausto Carmona - is he the 2007 Carmona or the 2008? I'll take a risk late in the draft to find out
Javier Vazquez - Traded to Atlanta, could thrive and be a huge sleeper
Oliver Perez - If he stays with the Mets he'll be as good as he was in 2008
Phil Hughes - If he makes the rotation, he could surprise a lot of people but the jury is still out
Joe Saunders Saunders walks a lot but he's solid all around, not a lot of K's
Chris Carpenter - Same as Smoltz, grab and stash, could be solid for the second half
Jered Weaver - Still has room to improve, still young and ton of potential
Mark Buerhle - Innings eater, nice solid option at the end of your draft
John Danks - Crashed in the second half but young enough to build on his experience, great stuff and potential
Johnny Cueto - Same as Danks, not sure if he is for real though...yet
Jonathon Sanchez - If he can last past the 3rd inning, he could be a superstar
Kyle Lohse - Biggest surprise last year, should be solid again, he's quite inconsistent though
Andy Sonnanstine - Great control but doesn't blow hitters away
Bronson Arroyo - each year is something different, great in 2006, terrible in 2007, decent in 2008 means he's in line for a bad 2009
Andy Pettitte - Could be a nice pick up as your 9th SP, 3.80ERA/1.25WHIP potential if he's right and healthy
Randy Johnson - At the end of your draft or for under $5 at the auction, you can find a better value
Huroki Kuroda - Nothing flashy, just a solid SP, kind of like a poor man's Ted Lilly
David Purcey
- Not a young prospect but could break out with 180K potential if he makes the rotation
Brad Penny - Health is always an issue
Jeremy Bonderman - Only for a buck or in the last 2-3 round of a 23 round draft would I take a chance on Bonderman
Jeremy Guthrie - Will provide a low ERA and WHIP at the end of your draft
Armando Galarraga - Nothing flashy here, may be able to keep an ERA under 4
Colin Balester - Great potential on a crappy team, nice potential, great keeper/sleeper, probably best SP on their staff
Aaron Cook - Could keep an ERA/WHIP under 4.00/1.25
Jeff Samardzija - Could end up the set up man by seasons end or could start, it's up in the air right now
Justin Masterson - I could probably rank Masterson much higher if the Sox let him start, otherwise he'll be set up man

Cesar Carrillo - Super Sleeper, could crack the SD rotation, has electric stuffHumberto Sanchez - He's my secret sleeper to crack the Yankee rotation in the summer when injuries hit, or dark horse to eventually take over for Mariano if Joba stays in the rotation in another 2-3 years
Jesse Litsch - Low K rate but excellent WHIP and ERA potential
Nick Blackburn - He's solid if he can keep the ERA under 4.00 consistently
Dave Bush - So much talent, can never put it together, great second half in 2008 could me something
Manny Parra - Young enough to get better
Gil Meche - Solid but I'd save for the waiver wire
Todd Wellemeyer - I'm not sold he can do it again
Kelvim Escobar - If he's going to be ready by mid season, he's worth a stash
Wandy Rodriguez - If he works out the high WHIP problem, he could be fantastic
Chris Volstad - Solid young SP with some upside
Edwin Jackson - Too unpredictable, sometimes he's amazing, sometimes he just terrible
Dana Eveland - Walks too many but has K potential
Clay Bucholz - Could crack the rotation if an injury happens but Masterson and Michael Bowden might have passed him on the depth chart
Ian Kennedy - He's currently trade bait but injuries could help Kennedy re-crack the rotation in the summer
Gio Gonzalez - Has k per IP potential, great in the minors but hasn't been able to do it in the majors yet, great sleeper potential
Jeff Neimann - Major league ready, monster size, but no where to pitch
Dontrelle Willis - I don't know. Maybe spend a buck and see what happens
Tim Wakefield - Always solid but someone you can get off the waiver wire
Troy Patton - Could be a nice sleeper if he cracks the rotation
Kevin Millwood - Waiver Wire
Jamie Moyer - See Wakefield
Jason Schmidt - A sleeper if he stays healthy, which is doubtful
Jeff Francis - I've moved on
Ian Snell - The potential is stiull there if he can get that WHIP down, good K potential
Greg Smith - I don't think he'll be as good as last year's first half
Sean Marshall - He's tall, good stuff, should be a nice sleeper if he gets the chance to start
Brian Bannister - Doesn't have mind blowing stuff, he's an Andy Sonnanstine on a crappy team
Joe Blanton - He won't help your stats much but could nail down 12-15 wins
Tom Glavine - Think Moyer or Wakefield if he pitches all year
Daniel Cabrera - Electric stuff but he's too wild and hasn't been able to put it together, is this the year?
Scott Lewis - Could be solid, good ERA/WHIP but nothing too excited
Sean Gallagher - Waiver Wire
Barry Zito - Hey, you never know! He could come out this year and be awesome, has a lot to prove, too much money on the line for someone to be this terrible, worth a buck and a stash in my mind
Carlos Villanueva - If he's a starter he has sleeper potential
Kyle Kendrick - Numbers aren't good enough to help
Vicente Padilla - Can get you the 10 K game but thats about it
Carlos Silva - Supposed to have a great WHIP, but was a bust last year
Jorge Campillo - I don't think he's as good as his numbers suggest
John Lannan - There is potential here but the Nats stink!
Jo-Jo- Reyes - Waiver Wire
Anibal Sanchez - Potential here but I'll wait for the wire
Andrew Miller - Potential here but I'll wait for the wire


11 comments:

Matthew said...

Good stuff -- I think Halladay is probably a bit too high in terms of how I bet he'll perform in '09. Lester too high also...I wouldn't put him above Shields.

Anonymous said...

I didn't see Hiroki Kuroda on your list. Just wondering where he will rank.

Mike Kuchera said...

Matt, I like that Halladay is consistent. You know he's not going to come out and give you a crappy fluke season and that's why I rank him higher than most. he's dependable the way Brandon Webb is dependable. As for Lester, he gets the nod up a bit because he's lefty and younger but I like Shields too.

Mr. Anonymous, thanks for the call out! Somehow Kuroda slipped passed me. I just added him in!

Schruender said...

I agree Santana is still number one. The K-Rod signing will do him some good with the wins.

I like where you put Gallardo.

I hate where you have put Zambrano.

I think that Lester is nasty, but he doesn't have the strikeout capabilities to be with the biggest boys.

k said...

hey im curious how meche can be so low with his k's, pretty decent era/whip and obviously his wins will probably go up by at least a couple as the team improves and just by chance

for example how can you possible make the argument arroyo is better?

also carrillo isn't cracking any rotation this year, look for guys like will will inman, wade leblanc, maybe even matt latos if he stays healthy to contribute

Krusader2003 said...

I really like your site. I noticed you don't have Kyle Davies on this list. What is your opinion about him? Is he worth taking a shot at? I did notice that in sept, he really did a good job. Thanks.

Anonymous said...

Did you honestly just write 200+ K's seems POSSIBLE for Tiny Tim????? Possible he had 265 last year I think you mistook 200 for 300 because 300 is possible and 200 is a lock.

Anonymous said...

Also Nolasco is anything but a sleeper, except the sleeper kind who everyone knows is a sleeper

And how in the world can you rank zambrano that high, over Billingsley???

Mike Kuchera said...

Kyle Davies is intriguing because he's so young. He's got solid stuff and I think he was rushed a bit when he was younger with the Braves. I'd definitely keep Davies on the backburner or grab him super late in AL only drafts.

Also, I rank Zambrano over Billingsley because Zambrano does it every year! Billingsley has only done it one year. Plus, Zambrano is pretty durable and so what if he had a down year last year, he still just entering his prime. Zambrano's experience over Billingsley's youth I'd take anyday....and I love Billingsley!

Anonymous said...

Zambrano:
K/9 has dropped two straight years from a once good 9/9 to a terrible 6/9. Opposing hitters averages against him have been steadily increasing for the last 2 years also. Even 2006 his last good year his FIP was 4.19 so he was just lucky. That basically means he hasn't been good in 3 years, he's striking out less and allowing more hits.

Anonymous said...

Billingsley:
2007; 3.30 era, k/9 of 8.6 in 150 ip
2008; 3.10 era k/9 of 9 in 200 ip

Billingsley has better peripheral stats, has been improving, has a better k/9 rate and much better era.