Below you will find The Fantasy Man's 2009 Fantasy Baseball Mixed League Top 50 Draft Rankings. How did I derive these rankings? I look at each player separately, I look at 2008 stats, I look at trends in stats from the past 3 -4 years, I look at age, I look at team and lineup, I look at stadiums, and most of all, I look at other mock drafts and real league drafts. There is no point in giving you rankings that in some way don't show similarities and/or differences to recent mock drafts. I personally think that Evan Longoria is only a top 35 pick, but if every draft I have seen so far this year has him going in the top 20, then we have something to talk about. However, I am not persuaded by other rankings from other websites and magazines. I make up the rankings on my own using the information listed above.
The rankings below will certainly cause some debate, especially with Evan Longoria. So bring it on! These rankings are not set in stone but I'm positive I'll probably leave them as is during the off-season as these are the rankings I believe in and the rankings I will use to win a bunch of fantasy baseball leagues in 2009. So where do we begin??
1. Alex Rodriguez - A-Rod has been a monster in odd years.... look it up!
2. Albert Pujols - Had a surgery to help his elbow problems (not TJ surgery), if it's good, Pujols will be a monster again!
3. Hanley Ramirez - If he leads off, I'd still pick Hanley here, but don't expect 50+ SB, more like 35 I'd say.
4. Jose Reyes - Reyes alone can keep you alive in the SB category, grab Reyes here and concentrate on power next 3 rounds.
5. Miguel Cabrera - Early season slump hampered BA but HR/RBI were best of career, add in .300+ BA and he's fantasy gold!
6. Ryan Braun - Some say he can be as good as A-Rod, I disagree but he is certainly top 10 fantasy talent.
7. David Wright - You can argue that Wright can be top 5 as he contributes in all 5 major categories.
8. Grady Sizemore - Still getting better with 30/30 potential but 125+R with a .280+BA potential is sweet!
9. Matt Holliday - If he's traded he'll drop into R2 and then you'll get a bargain! I think he can hit .300+/30/100/20 outside Coors.
10. Ryan Howard - Who doesn't like 40/140? I'll take the .260+ BA in the 1st round if it gets me these stats!
11. Chase Utley - I like Utley but 2B isn't as weak that you need to jump on Utley.
12. Jimmy Rollins - .290BA/125+R/20HR/85RBI/40SB is late first round material.
13. Carlos Quentin - Project his '08 numbers over 550+ AB and you'll agree with this ranking.
14. Johan Santana - I'll take the consistency of Santana over Lincecum or Sabathia any day!
15. Mark Teixiera - It doesn't matter where he ends up, will be a monster and probably better in the 2nd half.
16. Prince Fielder - '08 seemed like a down year, so expect better numbers in every category!
17. Josh Hamilton - Big 1st half, not so big second half, be careful here but the talent is insane!
18. Ian Kinsler - He was insane until he got hurt but if you passed on Utley, Kinsler could be better overall!
19. Tim Lincecum - Can easily put up slightly better numbers than Johan but may not get the wins.
20. Carlos Lee - Should be recovered from broken pinkie and is almost a sure bet for .290-.300/30/100/20
21. Manny Ramirez - Hype may have Manny fly earlier, but he's still aging and he'll be paid so might not match 2008.
22. Alfonso Soriano - No longer 40/40 but 35/25 more like it if he can stay healthy and get 500+AB.
23. B.J. Upton - He's oozing with potential but 2009 will produce more HR/RBI and hopefully a slightly better BA with those SB
24. Ichiro Suzuki - Ichiro is the most consistent, sure-thing, durable player in this draft, grab him at the end of R2 as you snake.
25. David Ortiz - I can't believe I have him ranked this low, but he's a bargain down here and will be healthy in '09.
26. C.C. Sabathia - If he ends up in NY, as a Yankee fan, I'm not expecting 2008 numbers. Think Johan and his first year in NY....
27. Dustin Pedroia - .300+/20/80+/20/100+R is fantastic if you're going for position scarcity.
28. Roy Halladay - He's as gritty as you can get and a rock on your staff for every category.
29. Carl Crawford - 40+ SB but I still don't think you'll see the 20+ HR that analysts have been waiting for.
30. Carlos Beltran - Same as Berkman, consistent numbers every year but new talent pushes him down.
31. Matt Kemp - Has superstar potential but he is virtually the same player as Alex Rios, just 3-4 years younger.
32. Evan Longoria - So much hype, has 30+HR power, but K's are a killer and he'll probably bat under .280.
33. Jacoby Ellsbury - Grady Sizemore with less HR, but more SB and BA.
34. Jake Peavy - Down year, nagging injuries, crappy team, but still young, ton of potential so look for a big comeback.
35. Lance Berkman - So much talent in this draft pool that solid players like Berkman get pushed down for more hype.
36. Brandon Webb - An elite SP who is consistent and durable and contributes in every category.
37. Justin Morneau - Expect a slight increase in power and possibly a slight decreas in BA in '09.
38. Adrian Gonzalez - Has the power potential and talent to rank just below Fielder and Tex.
39. Brandon Phillips - Doesn't look like 30/30 will happen but if '08 turns out to be a down year, Phillips could be a bargain!
40. Cole Hamels - Has elite top 5 skill, but pitched deep into post-season, so he's a risk. Think Josh Beckett in 2008.
41. Vladimir Guerrero - He's getting older but last year everyone said Manny was done, I think Vlad is a bargain here.
42. Francisco Rodriguez - He won't save 62 again, but 40+ and studly numbers no matter where he pitches is expected.
43. Jonathon Papelbon - If you miss on K-Rod, you can't miss with Papelbon.
44. Russell Martin - These next 3 are are interchangeable but Martin adds 15+SB potential or 20/15 potential.
45. Joe Mauer - Mauer is your BA guy but if he hits for more power, that BA will drop. I think he sticks with the BA.
46. Brian McCann - .300/25/100 potential..... HE'S STILL ONLY 24!!!!
47. Joe Nathan - Just as talented as K-Rod and Papelbon, but with less hype!
48. Kevin Youkilis - He is emerging as a bonafide fantasy stud and he's only going to get better.
49. Dan Haren - Has top 5 talent but hype of others pushes him down slightly.
50. Geovany Soto - 2008 ROY has .280+/25+ potential.
The following players could easily be considered in the top 50 and as you look at rankings in other magazines or on other websites, you'll see the differences. These players are on The Fantasy Man's bubble....
Curtis Granderson
Alex Rios - Instead of overpaying for the Matt Kemp hype, wait until the 5th and steal Rios who had identical stats in '08
Magglio Ordonez
Aramis Ramirez
Jason Bay
Josh Beckett
Scott Kazmir
Brian Roberts
Corey Hart
Nick Markakis
Nate McLouth
Ryan Ludwick
Changes as the off-season progresses...
11.10.08 - I swapped Dustin Pedroia (now 27) and Jacoby Ellsbury (now 33). Players like Carlos Beltran and Carl Crawford should be gone before Ellsbury, or else you are reaching. Plus, it's unlikely Pedroia lasts past the 3rd round anyway in any draft!
Comments? Talk to me. Leave a comment below and let the debates begin...
FM
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Monday, November 03, 2008
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13 comments:
In my humble opinion:
D. Wright -- Too, too low. Don't see how he's behind either Braun or MCab. Let alone Reyes.
R. Braun -- Too high.
R. Howard -- Too high -- I like him but I don't see others taking him in the first.
J. Rollins -- I bet he gets taken mid-late second round this year.
C. Quentin -- You can use your second round pick on him...I won't.
A. Soriano -- Too high I think. Just not dependable for several reasons.
I. Suzuki -- As deep as OF is going to be, I do not see taking him so early. He's not that productive.
J. Ellsbuy -- People will grab him here, you're right. But I don't see it.
M. Kemp -- Too, too high. You really think people will grab him before Longoria? I was thinking Rd. 4/5 for Kemp
L. Berkman -- I bet he gets taken earlier than 35. Maybe even 2nd rd.
B. Phillips -- I hope he falls this far!
K. Youkilis -- If you want go grab him here for '09, by all means. Yeah, people will. I won't.
Matt, nice job! This is why I like to do this early, because there's plenty of disagreement.
Braun - There are people out there, experts included, who think Ryan Braun is the next A-Rod. I'm not one of them, but you have to consider what he's done thus far, his age, and the potential for more. Braun has a 40HR season in him and it could be 2009, and that's why he is ranked where he is on my list.
Wright - He's behind Braun/MCab because A. Wright suffers a monster month or two long slump every year and B. MCab/Braun have a tad more power potential in my opinion as I can make up the Sb's elsewhere.
Howard - He went 5th in the latest expert mock draft. Check out the CBS League of Champions Expert Mock.
Rollins - How is .290/20/90/125R/40SB not first round material?
Quentin - Sorry, man crush! Look at the numbers over a full season!
Soriano - Your probably right.
Suzuki - Your dead wrong.
Ellsbury - He is better than Sizemore in BA & SB. Runs will be a wash and HR/RBI Sizemore will be a bit better. Ellsbury is risky but his potential means he could be a bargain in the late 3rd or 4th. That's assuming he plays fulltime.
Kemp - Most won't grab him before Longoria, but I am not as high on Longoria the way everyone else is!
Berkman - You're definitely right, but I didn't do these rankings based on when I thought players would be gone!
Phillips - If your talking 30/30, then I agree with you. If you are talking 20/20 or his 2008 numbers, I'd rather have Pedroia.
Youkilis - I hate the Red Sox, but I'll take Youkilis over the Corey Hart or the Aramis Ramirez or the Derrek Lee or just about any other 5th rounder!
Thanks for the comments. Fun to debate.
Some follow-ups:
Howard -- I love the guy, and his HRs are great. But I think Melnick made a good point during the season -- why would you spend your first round pick on a guy that definitely *hurts* you in a category -- AVG. I think he can be had with your second round pick.
Suzuki -- I still think I'm on point here. Suzuki is solid across the board, but I can't spend an early pick on a guy who is in a deep position with no power. OF is deep, and a lot of guys can clean up some SBs for you -- Kemp, Taveras, Milledge, etc. The other big thing he has is AVG of course. So go grab Polanco or some other such guy. Suzuki is a GREAT player to have on a team, but not as early as this. Quality power number players go quick -- you know that, I remember your "power scarcity" stuff from last year. Picking Suzuki is like an anti-steroid for your team.
Matt, you know what it is??? This year I am craving consistency and durability. You know what you'll get with Ichiro. I certainly can tell you that I'd rather have Ichiro early and then go grab that extra power source late in a draft with an Ankiel, a Willingham, an Elijah Dukes for example. If you read my stuff enough, you should know how much I like to load up on categories and Ichiro is the kind of guy to do that. In the early 3rd round, Ichiro is a safe buy. I mean, I could go for say Justin Morneau and then end up with a .300/23/100 season, but at the same time, I can find that much later in the draft anyway. What I like about Ichiro is the 100R uns with the 40 SB. Your not getting 500+ab from Willy Tavares and maybe late in the draft you can get a 20/20 something season from Milledge (if you believe) but you'll get a .270 BA with it. Combine the stats of say Tavares and Milledge and your lucky if you get .270/25HR/120RBI/120R/70SB....and that's both of them having a solid year. I'd rather take Ichiro and get 100R and 40 SB and make up the rest of those stats later. I know last year I had that power scarcity thing, but power was down overall in 2008. However, there are a lot more players who can get you 20-25HR late in the draft, so this year I like to grab the role players, the guys who load up on runs or BA and even SB early in the draft.... but that's just me. that's what makes me different than ALL the other experts out there. You bring up great points though.
Mike,
for the most part I have few arguements. I would flip-flop Braun and Wright and put Hanley just ahead of Pujols. I would also put Hamilton right behind Quentin.
Quentin is a super stud and has shown the talent all along. I've been a big fan since day one. I totally agree with you about Youk too. I was suspect of him for a couple of years because I never thought he would hit for power. However I'm totally sold now.
Kemp is a fantasy dream and will only get better and fly up these rankings in the next couple of years.
The only one that I really question on this list is Ellsbury. I still need to him to prove that he can hit for average before I take him in the third or fourth round.
I'm sure these ranking will fluctuate between now and Opening Day but good start.
I'm going to have to go with mulligan re: Ellesbury. In fact, what is the basis for your Ellsbury v. Sizemore comparison? Surely Sizemore's 4 seasons over 20 HRs (over 30 in 08 for an avg of ~26 a season) qualifies as more than "a little better" than Ells, who has never gone double digits. Sure Ells wins SB (tho Grady has over 30 for 2 seasons now and trending up), but I don't see how Ells has proven to be a more reliable hitter for avg: Grady has a career avg of .279 and Ells hit .280 last season. Sure one can hope that he's actually closer to his insane truncated 07 .avg, but I'm not so sure, he saw a lot more ABs in 08.
Okay, let's break this down in simpler terms because I know this will be a scenario everyone will fight me on this year.
1. I am very high on Ellsbury, the same way everyone else is way to high on Evan Longoria and Dustin Pedroia. I happen to pick Ellsbury as my guy to have a crush on this year.
2. The Sizemore/Ellbury arguement...
I never said Ellsbury was a proven hitter. Where did I say that Sizemore was "a little better"? What I said was that Ellsbury will be better in BA/SB while Sizemore will be better in the power departments of HR/RBI. I think we can all agree on the SB, the HR, the RBI and that runs will be a wash since now Ellsbury is the everyday CF. The question is the batting average. Is Ellsbury proven? No. But.....
2008 - he hit .280
2007 - he hit .353 in 116AB in his short stint in Boston. He hit .298 in 363AB in AAA and .452 in 73AB.
2006 - In A he hit .299 in 244AB. He hit .308 in 199AB in AA.
2005 - Hit .317 in A ball in 139AB
What part of that says that Ellsbury will hit lower than .280? Those numbers clearly suggest a potential .290+BA on the safe side and upside of .300+. That's clear I think. Is he proven? No. But does his past numbers in the minors show potential? Yes. Does his minor league numbers show that his numbers could increase as he moves up a level? Yes they do. This is why I like Ellsbury. With the Coco Crisp trade, Boston is about to unleash a beast! He won't have Sizemore's power, but he certainly has a bit more speed and I believe will have a better batting average, and as much as 20 points higher than Sizemore. Its not like I just jumped on the Ellsbury bandwagon. I've done my homework on him specifically because I upgraded him over a lot of other young players because the potential to be a fantasy stud is there! Want to get a little more crazy???? Compare his numbers with that of Jose Reyes!!! Take away about 20 steals and you have a Jose Reyes type in the 4th-6th rounds. Even better, sometimes I've seen Ellsbury drop into the 7th or 8th. Not as many people value Ellsbury the way I do.
FYI....
Sizemore BA numbers suck because he's a strikeout king!! Sizemore had 130 K in 634AB in 2008! Ellsbury had only 80 in 554AB. That's why Sizemore's BA blows, the K's. In those 3 minor league seasons, Ellsbury only struck out 127 times in 1017 AB. Sizemore K'd 604 in 2695AB(his last 5 seasons). That's insane! That's 130-150K per year!
So yeah, I based my analysis on the fact that I believe Ellsbury can be a .290+hitter. If he hits .310, don't kill me here, but now your looking at Jose Reyes numbers rather than Sizemore's. That's assuming Ellsbury steals 50 bases again!
This should totally be a blog post! ;) Nice call out though!
Your rankings are pretty good, but you completely screwed the pooch on Lance "Big Puma" Berkman. First of all, he has the greatest nickname in sports, Big Puma. That's worth at least 10 spots higher on your list alone. Second, his numbers this year will look like this: .325-40-125-110-15. MVP baby!!!!!
Sorry dude, I'm just not a Berkman fan. He's past his prime just about and could break down any day now. I agree he has that kind of upside but this year, I just dont want to take the chance personally.
Completely agree with A-Rod at 1. With Tex #4, he'll be huge.
Rollins will bounce back this year. If he's there at 7 or 8, I'm taking him.
I'm not on the Johan bus this year. Give me Sabathia or Halladay instead.
As much as it saddens the Cub fan in me, Soriano is too high.
Ortiz is on the dark side of the moon. Too high.
I'm sandbagging catchers this year, and drafting Weiters in the last round.
stay away from all Red Sox other then Papplebum and Lester. Seriously, Youkilis, Bay, and Pedroia maxed out last year and it still wasn't that good. Minus some steals and a few homers, Mauer was even better then Pedroia. There aren't a lot of "experts" or even fantasy players that agree with me, but no Manny means the death of Ortiz. Plus, Ortiz is a DH, you can only use him at Util, which ruins your team flexibility. Lowell and Drew are never healthy. Lowrie and Lugo are garbage. Tek is completely useless. Their pitching staff is nothing special. Beckett is lights out in the playoffs but rather average in the regular season. Dice-K wins, but puts the world on base to do it. Wakefield is lousy, Penny will get killed in the AL, Buchholz is terrible. Masterson needs to be in the rotation and won't be. Finally, Ellsbury. He's good for nothing but steals and that's not worth a high pick. Tavares will get more steals and you can get him significantly later. Like the saying goes, you can't win a fantasy league early in the draft, but you can lose it. Ellsbury will help you to lose your leagues. He isn't worth his draft position by any stretch of the imagination, STAY AWAY !!!
Mike Kuchera said...
Sorry dude, I'm just not a Berkman fan. He's past his prime just about and could break down any day now. I agree he has that kind of upside but this year, I just dont want to take the chance personally
what? past his prime? he's about to turn 33. He's still in his prime. A first baseman that hits 30 homers, drives in over 100 runs, scores over 100 runs, and will steal 15 bases, plus hit .285-.300? what's not to like.
Can you please list a updated top 50 rankings?
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