Let me start by saying I'm a Yankee fan, but in fantasy baseball, you have to be able to differentiate between who you like/dislike personally and who you should draft on your fantasy team. As much as I hate to see Papelbon succeed, I also love to see Papelbon succeed because he is the best closer in baseball (In fantasy terms). In personal terms, of course I'll still go with Mariano Rivera.
As for Papelbon, I don't think I need to recite his numbers but instead I'll take a different approach. Your draft. Here is a fact. Papelbon is gone by the end of the 5th round of your 12 team mixed league draft, and even that is late. Is he worth a 4th round pick? Yes. Here's why....
Papelbon will be in the top 3 in ERA/WHIP/K/SV among closers. Many other experts will argue that a closer this early is a waste of a pick, that you dont need a top flight closer, that all you need is the saves. What do you think is more valuable.....
65IP, 40SV, 1.95ERA, .95WHIP, 80K
or
65IP, 40SV, 4.58ERA, 1.42WHIP, 34K
I rest my case. You will find that the first set of numbers comes in handy much more at the end of the season than it does during your draft. A horse like Papelbon will continually help you lower your ERA/WHIP while still providing K's. You can pick Papelbon in R5 and then wait for SP's later in the draft. You can find gems in rounds R10-R16 for your staff while using Papelbon as your ERA/WHIP horse to make up for the lack of top notch SP talent.This is how valuable Papelbon is!
Fantasy Man Projection: 70IP, 80K, 40SV, 1.95ERA, 0.95WHIP
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4 comments:
But you didn't show how much the difference from the good ERA/WHIP/K closer is to the bad. I did a study of Papelbon to Brian Wilson on a 2008 team and if you played in a 1250 IP limit league the difference was only 0.10 ERA and 0.019 WHIP. Is that worth picking him 10+ rounds earlier?
Picking closers before round 12 in most leagues is a waste.
http://www.rotosavants.com/2008/12/how-much-is-your-5th-round-closer-worth.html
Troy, you must be a Lenny Melnick fan! I have this arguement with Lenny every year. When your sitting there in the middle of a draft, no one looks at a difference of .10 ERA or 0.19 WHIP...
I like to look at the players and their situations. Papelbon provides piece of mind, durability, reliability and top notch stats. Simple as that. Not everyone plays in a 1250IP league.
I'm not saying Brian Wilson isnt worth it, I think he'll be even better than he was in 2008, but if I had the chance to take Papelbon in the 5th knowing I'm waiting on SP, I'll do it. Plus, every time I do it, my teams succeeds it seems and its been a plan that I have touted the last few years. Granted , the rest of your team needs to be smart, but I haven't failed with it yet.
Last year I drafted Papelbon and Rivera in rounds 5 and 9 in an expert league draft. My staff finished at the top in the standings and I finished 3rd in the league (no IP limit). In another comparable league I invested late in Trevor Hoffman and Brandon Lyon.....gotta get those saves! I bet you can guess how my staff did there....finished middle of the pack in pitching but still finished 4th in the standings overall.
You haven't discussed what your giving up by taking a guy like Papelbon at such a high round/cost. Nor have you mentioned how many events need to occur for a save to happen. I took Soria ages later than the team that took Papelbon last year and laughed my passed them.
And he said .019 WHIP...I'll forgive you though..there is absolutely no statistical reference in any of your projections...
You guys make great points, dont get me wrong. This is an arguement that I have with people every season. I only know what works for me. But, you guys I think are reading into this waaay to much. My whole point here is that a top closer is more reliable OVERALL than just a guy who gets you 35 saves with crappy numbers. Therefore, I am trying to justify why a Papelbon in say round 5 is a good pick. Yes, you are giving up a chance to draft an Alex Rios, a Cory Hart, etc...all valuable. But you can draft Papelbon in R5 instead of say Corey Hart and then draft Lastings Milledge in say R12 and get similar numbers. So would you then rather have Hart/Hoffman or Papelbon/Milledge??? Debateble, but I go Paps/Milledge!
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