The 2009 fantasy baseball season is over and while we're all involved with the post season and with fantasy football, why not be the first to look ahead into fantasy baseball 2010. Below is a list at who I think should be the top 25 going into 2010 drafts. This list is open debate and will most likely be changed again early in the offseason as I'll have to make adjustments once the post season ends.
1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Albert Pujols
3. Hanley Ramirez
4. Ryan Braun
5. Miguel Cabrera
6. Chase Utley
7. Matt Kemp
8. Joe Mauer
9. Carl Crawford
10. Prince Fielder
11. Ryan Howard
12. Mark Teixeira
13. Adrian Gonzalez
14. Ian Kinsler
15. Troy Tulowitzski
16. Jimmy Rollins
17. Jacoby Ellsbury
18. Matt Holliday
19. Grady Sizemore
20. Jose Reyes
21. Johan Santana
22. Roy Halladay
23. Tim Lincecum
24. C.C. Sabathia
25. David Wright
26. Evan Longoria
27. Justin Morneau
28. Carlos Beltran
29. Justin Upton
30. Robinson Cano
31. Pablo Sandoval
32. Kevin Youkilis
33. Jason Bay
34. Ichiro Suzuki
35. Manny Ramirez
36. Mark Reynolds
37. Adam Lind
38. Andre Ethier
39. Aaron Hill
40. Ryan Zimmerman
41. Kendry Morales
42. Chris Carpenter
43. Adam Wainwright
44. Zach Greinke
45. Jayson Werth
46. Derek Jeter
47. Brian Roberts
48. Dustin Pedroia
49. Brian McCann
50. Ben Zobrist
You could certainly open this up for debate. Consider it a starter ranking for 2010. I think you have to give Joe Mauer his props considering his risk and you still have to consider Jose Reyes and Grady Sizemore top 20 fantasy picks despite this years injuries. My biggest issue is David Wright. He currently has 8 HR and while we shouldn't expect the Mets to be as bad next year as they are this year, I'm having trouble ranking him higher.
Some other players you may consider could be Robinson Cano who finally had a breakout year but who also could be better next year. Dustin Pedroia was a top 20 favorite in drafts earlier this year but we found that most experts who touted Pedroia that earlier were clearly wrong. 15 HR and 72 RBI as of today doesn't warrant a top 20 pick considering he had 10HR and 57 RBI with about 2 weeks left to go in the season. I actually replaced Manny Ramirez with Justin Upton as Upton's numbers are almost identical to Matt Hollidays' but with more steals and a more attractive age than Manny. You can certainly pair C.C. Sabathia with Roy Halladay and Johan Santana but I feel the latter two are more automatic and I wanted to make room for Upton in the top 25. Mark Reynolds with that power/speed combo and youth is a must in the top 40 if you can't sneak him into the top 25. He gets knocked slightly because of the K's and his unpredictability but he's a nice option to load up on HR/SB. Personally, I don't think he'll go 40/20 again but you may see a few less HR with a slightly better BA.
Other potential top 50 candidates but.....
Michael Young - Does anyone see him hitting 20+ HR next year again?
Victor Martinez - Steady Eddie, .300/20/100... ish every year
Nelson Cruz - Legit power/speed should be a late 3rd/4th rounder, BA suffers a bit.
Brandon Phillips - 20/20 potential every year but the BA is a killer, probably a top 50 guy though on this list by the time we approach fantasy drafts in January.
I'm interested to see how rankings start to shape up as the season nears an end. I will update this list again sometime in late November or December.
Saturday, October 10, 2009
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10 comments:
Lincecum? Not even an honorable mention?
Jeez, I'm a dope! I just added Lincecum in there with Johan and Halladay. Timmy could easily be a above those two but I personally prefer the experience, durability and consistency of Halladay and Santana. Those two are still young enough where they can remain at the top of their game and Halladay has even more upside once you get him on a contender....maybe as soon as this off season! If Halladay ends up on say the Angels, Dodgers, Phillies, Cardinals, Yankees, or Red Sox, Halladay should become your #1 SP.
As for the ranking, I had to drop Pablo Sandoval who I love. I dropped Sandoval over Wright, Beltran and Upton simply because he doesn't get many SB's. So Sandoval is #26 on that list. I also had to bump up Matt Holliday and downgrade David Wright a few slots. Wright has to prove to me that he can hit for more power consistently! He does make for a nice semi-sleeper next season!
Wainwright over Greinke and no Felix Hernandez or Justin Verlander? Where would you rank them? Explain...
Yep, Wainwright over Greinke simply because Wainwright probably gets more wins and because he pitches in the national league. Don't get me wrong, I love Greinke just as much as the next guy but at that point on the list, it doesnt really matter which guy I rank above the other does it?
I left out Felix because of the lack of win potential and I left out Verlander because he up one year down one year. If he keeps that pace he'll be down next year. What I do like about Felix though is that if I can help keep him out of the top 50, maybe you can get him at a better value in drafts. I know thats a crappy analysis but that's how I think. Putting all these pitchers in the top 50 is too much. Hitting is always more valuable than pitching. I did leave them out here but Felix and Verlander definitely can rank in that 45-55 range. I put them in the 50-55 range because I can't see how you can pass up a Brian Roberts or a Jason Bay for example in the late 4th round. Simple as that.
I definitely disagree with a few of your choices. A-Rod is too high, and Matt Kemp should be top 7 or 8 easily. Grady Sizemore and Reyes will be healthy next year and back up to top 10 players. There's too many things to disagree with when reading this list.
Matt Kemp is on my Top 7! Well, I'm not here to post rankings everyone wants to agree with. If you want that, go to ESPN or Fox or one of the other main sites out there. Plus, this list isn't set in stone yet. This is a rough draft in a way as I'll have to see how the rest of the off season shapes up. I like to post rankings as if this is the order I would personally draft players and I put a lot of thought into where I should rank them and where I think some of these guys will fall. So yes, do I think Sizemore and Reyes will bounce back? Yes, but will they slip somewhat in drafts? Absolutely. Anyone who picks either of these guys in the top 10 is a moron because you just don't know for sure if they will actually bounce back and thats why they'll slip a bit. Too much risk on a first round pick could be deadly! Also, remember what happened to Pujols two years ago with the elbow thing. He was slipping into the 3rd round in drafts or Arod last year with the hip. That dude missed almost 2 months and finished with 30/100! How can you drop a healthy Arod further?? And to be fair, the only guy I don't agree with on my own list here is Carl Crawford. I just don't believe he'll develop the power. However, he's playing for a contract so thats what got him into that top 6. And lastly, as for Sizemore and Reyes, I personally don't see how someone can seriously choose either one of them over any of the other 17 guys I listed before them. Its too hard to pass on Chase Utley and pick Grady Sizemore right now... thats all I'm sayin'!
Fair enough. I think I'd definitely take Reyes or Sizemore over Adrian Gonzalez, and Kinsler isn't consistent enough to be ahead of Reyes or Sizemore. I'm not here really to argue because I know how tough it is to make a list like this. Players like Nick Markakis should be on here too.
well thought out list, now expand it to 300 players and use obp rather than avg (why aren't all leagues doing this?) and post that for me...
Where are Adam Jones and Nick Markakis Mike?
They are 51 and 52 haha! Nope, I didn't for get them! Just don't personally feel that Markakis and Jones crack my personal top 50 list. Jones was hurt last year so who knows if last years 1st half was for real or not (Probably was real IMO) and Markakis has slightly underperformed expectations the last 2 years and has lacked the power I want on a weak team. Just my opinion that Brian Roberts at 2B is slightly more valuable than Nick Markakis at )at OF at the bottom of that top 50 list. The potential is there for both, but this year, I'm looking for more of the sure thing in my top 50.
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