Tuesday, December 15, 2009

The Fantasy Man First Expert Mock Draft of 2010!

First real fantasy baseball expert mock draft of the 2010 season kicked off at Mock Draft Central last Tuesday night!

We went 23 rounds with the standard rosters -- two Cs included.

The draft order had been selected, and was as follows:
1- Tim McLeod, RotoRob
2- Daniel Dobish, OPEN Sports
3- Chris McDonnell, FantasyBaseball.com
4- Paul Bourdett, RotoExperts
5- Todd Zola, Mastersball
6- Tom Kessenich, Fanball and National Fantasy Baseball Championship
7- Brett Greenfield, Fantasy Phenoms
8- Nick Minnix, KFFL
9- Ray Murphy, Baseball HQ
10- Scott Swanay, Fantasy Baseball Sherpa
11- Paul Greco, Fantasy Pros 911
12- Mike Kuchera, Fantasy Baseball Express

As always, the boys from Fantasy Pros 911 broadcasted the event. Listen to the:
Audio Replay of in-draft audio analysis This should be pretty good as I'll probably get blasted two or three times for some of my picks!

View Draft Results Here

Mike Kuchera - Fantasy Baseball Express ANALYSIS of picks and draft

R1 Prince Fielder - POWER! POWER! POWER! I love power in the first few rounds and I like the potential of Fielder hitting close to or slightly over .300!

R2 Joe Mauer - Some might not like Mauer this early but he's playing for a big contract (if he's not extended in the off season) and he's a lock to hit +.300! Throw in 20+HR and you have the best hitting catcher in the league. I'm also not much of a position scarcity guy but this was a chance to take care of catcher early with a good solid pick. I'm felling good about Mauer staying healthy at least 90% of the year. I was actually hoping Tex or Ryan Howard would have fallen so that I could have had back to back power guys, but they went before me so I was glad to take Fielder for the power and Mauer for the position scarcity.
R3 Justin Upton - Here is Carlos Beltran numbers in his prime but with a .300+ BA and home in a hitters park! Here is Matt Kemp numbers with more power in the 3rd round!!!!! That's value!

R4 Robinson Cano - I was actually looking Brian Roberts for the consistency and steals but Cano and Aaron Hill were on the board and I love the Yankees so I went with Cano who could realistically be a .300/25/100/100 guy in 2010. I was debating between Halladay and Cano here. I went with the 2B because of position scarcity and because I could get one of the few top 2B's. Also, if you remember, Roy Halladay was a round 8-9 pick last season, so you know this year there will be a few values later one (see below).
R5 Javier Vazquez - Top 6 starters already off the board. Debated for a while between Vazquez and Beckett. I went with Vazquez because of National League and superior in K's last season. I was also thinking Beckett might slip another round because of his so-so season last year.
R6 Carlos Beltran - If he has a normal Carlos Beltran year, that's .275/30/100/20, and that's 3rd round type numbers. I don't expect Beltran to steal 20 bases but I expect a decent year after last years injury riddled season. He's an injury risk of course, but he'll be completely healthy heading into spring training with something to prove. Great value here.
R7 Josh Beckett - I was hoping he'd slip and he did. Good solid SP who is an ace that drops a few rounds. Beckett could be the Halladay of 2009 fantasy wise meaning he's the guy you get later that can certainly perform above the normal fantasy expectations.
R8 Carlos Quentin - Comeback player of the year!!!! Lots of these type of guys out there this year. Big guy, 30+HR power, .400+ OBP potential, never K's, had a great August and September, and should be healthy heading into spring training!
R9 Michael Bourn - I normally don't go after the one dimensional guys this early but I know I could use a speed guy to load up on SB and he was the highest ranking player on the board. He wouldn't last another round and he's a sure thing for 50+ bases.
R10 Joakim Soria - Figured it was time to take the last somewhat solid closer.
R11 Brandon Webb - Another comeback player who has a top 5 arm.
R12 Roy Oswalt - I'm trying to load up on good quality SP's who are aces but who are getting older. I like these guys because they're experienced and if things go right, any of them can have a fantastic bounce back year. It happens all the time. Think Kevin Millwood in 2009...... and Webb and Oswalt are superstars compared to Millwood.
R13 Miguel Tejada - SS was running thin so I went with Miggy for the BA, run, and RBI consistentcy. I don't care if he's losing power. If he hits 15 HR, thats fine. As long as he gets 199 hits again he's a fantastic value here. Don't let experts brainwash you that Tejada's power is gone and he's done. He had 199 hits last year with a great BA and scored runs. So look at Tejada as a guy who can get you 15 HR and 90+RBI with a .300+BA assuming he has a solid year like he did last year. Don't draft Tejada for power this late and your getting a great value.
R14 Carlos Zambrano - C'mon!!!! Cy Young candidate in the 14th round??!!! What's going on this year?! I love Zambrano and he's still only 29 looking to rebound slightly in 2010. Nice sleeper here, if you can call Zambrano a sleeper.
R15 Paul Konerko - Power for my CI spot. Here's another guy that no one cares about anymore that can get you .270/25+/100 with 30+HR power.
R16 Carlos Delgado - Same as Delgado. Everyone was complaining at this point that power was at a premium this year and I just found two starting and now healthy 30+HR guys with something to prove in rounds 15 & 16.
R17 Marco Scutaro - Middle infield was thing and I was praying for Alcides Escobar for the steals and I missed so I went with Scutaro in Boston to just provide serviceable numbers and hopefully 15 HR with 80+runs depending where he bats.
R18 Frank Francisco - Last good closer with K potential on the board. These guys always wait until the last few rounds on a 2nd closer so I just jumped ahead of the pack.
R19 Jermaine Dye - Same reasoning here as Konerko/Delgado. I could have went with speed but saw a chance to nab another 25+HR from a starting OF!
R20 Jarrod Saltalamacchia - Probably my biggest risk of the draft but still young enough to finally break out. Plus, everyone was gone! Even Carlos Ruiz was gone!
R21 Jake Fox - Sleeper pick here with 25+HR potential at 3B or wherever he ends up playing. He'll be a full-time player too!
R22 Phil Hughes - Upside pick assuming Hughes cracks the rotation.
R23 Joe Saunders - A solid all around good starting pitcher who gets wins!

Final Thoughts
I love these expert drafts because most of these guys are interested in making the superstar pick, that one pick where everyone goes "oooh, great pick!". Me, I just like to draft as if this was a money league because I like to see what I could potentially get at different parts of the draft. What you see here is that there is a ton of good solid veteran pitching in the middle to late rounds. Chris R. Young in San Diego wasn't even drafted! Thats an undrafted ace (despite his injury problems last year) and he's still quite young! Look at where guys like Erik Bedard and Rich Harden were drafted. You could go all hitting in the first 10 rounds and load up your pitching staff with all risky ace type pitchers who are either coming back from injury or coming back from down years. That's one way to go. Yes, power is at a premium. You can't expect a guy to hit 40HR anymore outside of the 1st round. However, as you can see with my results, you can get 25-30+HR power in and after round 15 from established players! 2B/SS/MI goes quick. It's smart to use rounds 4-8 to grab a top 10 guy at each position. Load up on power early, take a look at scarcity as you go and adjust. The overall exciting talent pool drops off considerably around round 10. After that, there's no real rhyme or reason as to who people are drafting. This is when you stop and look what positions are thin and start planning on who to pick late and when. If you make too many upside risky picks early (before round 10), your going to find out later that your team stinks. There's just not much consistency later in the draft. Its all risk, potential and upside. Take good solid players early this year and load up on risk in the 2nd half of the draft...... but that's just me.

Good luck this year!

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