Thursday, February 11, 2010

The Fantasy Man Particpates in a CBS Sports NL Only Draft

On Tuesday the Fantasy Man participated in a National League Only 5x5 Roto draft at CBS Sports in which you can review the results here. I represented The Fantasy Man.

Looking back, my plan was to pass on the $40+ players which is totally not my style! I like to grab that $50 Albert Pujols or the $51 Hanley Ramirez and then compensate later on in the draft. However, having done these drafts in the past, good solid $1 players are tough to find in the NL. So my plan was to spread it out a bit and go for maybe one or two $35 type players maybe two $20 players and then save my money for good solid players at slightly undervalued prices. Let's see how I did...

The Team:
David Wright $34 - Gotta get a top player, Wright was top 5 last season so this is a discount

Jose Reyes $36 - Sounds like he's healthy and its a contract year
Nyjer Morgan $21 - mmmm...speed...runs...batting average

Brian McCann $25 - Upside is worth the money
Martin Prado $13 - Love the versatile with the BA
Jorge Cantu $18 - I was saving $ for James Loney, but some dope paid $21 in a bidding war
Miguel Olivo $2 - 15+ HR in a platoon role in Colorado??
Jeff Clement $4 - Could have C/1B eligibility with good upside
Will Venable $3 - Love his upside, 20/15 power/speed combo
Kosuke Fukadome $1 - Has some upside
Christian Guzman $1 - I hate this pick but MI was running low
Freddy Sanchez $1 - If he starts healthy I get good BA for a buck
Ben Francisco $1 - An injury makes Benny a full-timer but a good power/speed combo as a 4th
Todd Frazier $1 - Wanted Chris Heisey but someone outbid me, LF is wide open in Cincy!


Clayton Kershaw $20 - No brainer for 200K's
Brandon Webb $20 - Probably overpaid slightly but should be healthy and ace-like

Trevor Hoffman $20 - Wanted good all-around stats + the saves
Edwin Jackson $14 - Steal of the draft in my opinion! He's just getting started...
Joe Blanton $8 - At first I hated the $8, but 12-15 guaranteed wins w/ serviceable stats is worth $8
Matt Capps $9 - Upgraded pitching staff means more save opportunities for a Nationals closer
Oliver Perez $3 - UGH!
Bronson Arroyo $4 - See Joe Blanton
Chris R. Young $2 - Former ace, still in prime, crappy team, great pitchers park, healthy, great stuff, upside

Immediate thoughts...
I love the pitching staff! I think Jackson was a steal at $14 and the move to the NL is going to be great! Two innings eaters who always get you 12-15 wins in Blanton and Arroyo, an ace with superstar potential in Kershaw for average SP money, two closers when most teams have only one and very few have good ones, and some projects in Chris Young and Ollie Perez. Bandon Webb at $20 was an impulse but has upside to give ace-like stats. As for offense, we lack power but runs, stolen bases and batting average should all be top 3 in each of those categories.

Shoulda Coulda Woulda...
I shoulda spent $31 on Jimmy Rollins and saved $5 instead of $36 for Reyes
I shoulda saved my money on McCann and used that $25 and go an extra buck to get Derek Lee at $28, I then wouldn't have needed Jeff Clement and his risk.
I coulda picked up Jesus Flores for $2 with the extra money I saved getting Rollins instead of Reyes
I woulda passed on Webb but good SP's with huge upside were running super thin

I shoulda grabbed Adam Kennedy instead of Christian Guzman
I coulda had Chris Heisey, OF, CIN but got outbid at the very end by a buck, thought I could sneak him in, Todd Frazier next best thing.
I coulda passed on Nyjer Morgan for $21 and bid on Carlos Gomez for pennies, then used that extra money for a better middle infiled than Guzman/Sanchez

Moral of the Story...
Pitching is deep, OF is somewhat deep, you have to pay for power, cheap speed can be had, lots of young upside players, and fantastic $1-$3 SP options with upside like Chris Young, Oliver Perez, John Maine, John Lannan, Bud Norris, etc. I found that I actually like to save my money a bit more than blowing it on 3-4 monster players. Looking back I would probably toss back McCann and Webb and save that money for later in the draft to upgrade players like Guzman/Sanchez/Francisco/Clement. I'd rather have 23 full-time players then say 15 full-timers and a bunch of $1 scrubs. That's the first step to being successful. It's okay to have a $45+ player but make sure it's someone who can carry a category like Ryan Howard or Prince Fielder with power or Jose Reyes with speed.

More Analysis...
Mike Gianella of Roto Think Tank analyzed my team
Erik Siegrist of RotoSynthesis (Powered by RotoWire) added analysis during the auction

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