Monday, February 15, 2010

NL King - Can these 5 Pitchers Rebound in 2010?

This is part two of the last article where we focused on 5 hitters who could rebound in 2010. These 5 pitchers all went from mid to high draft dollars in 2009 and really disappointed their NL owners...

Cole Hamels - Age 26
2009 - 10W, 4.32 ERA, 1.29 Ratio, 168K, 193 2/3 IP
2008 - 14W, 3.09 ERA, 1.08 Ratio, 196K , 227 1/3 IP

The 2008 World Series MVP had a very disappointing season in 2009. The warning signs were that the Hamels pitched more innings than ever before in his career after winning the World Series. In 2008 Hamels pitched 79 more innings than he pitched in 2007. Hamels total innings in 2008 including the post season was 262 1/3. Throw in the fact that Hamels, after becoming the World Series MVP in 2008, went on what is refered to the "Rubber Chicken Circuit". Basically a lot of paid travelling appearances which meant less time last off-season preparing for 2009. Hamels mentality looked fragile in the post season against the Yankees in 2009. Having said all this, Hamels is too talented and is on to good of a team not to have a good year in 2010. Plus having Roy Halladay around to pass on some great knowledge and help Hamels development could go a long way. Remember what Halladay did for AJ Burnett in Toronto. Hamels is just 26 as well I would expect 15W, and era at least at 3.50, a ratio in the low 1.20's and strikeouts close to 200. Of course Hamels can do even better than that. If Hamels goes for a discount in your league come draft day jump on him.

Derek Lowe - Age 36
2009 - 15W, 4.67 ERA, 1.52 Ratio, 111K, 194 2/3 IP
2008 - 14W, 3.24 ERA, 1.13 Ratio, 147K, 211 IP

Derek Lowe really fell off the map last year. Yes he had 15 wins but his K's were awful (usually close to 150K's for the year) and Lowe killed your era & ratio. Can he turn it around? Lowe before last year had 4 straight seasons of an era below 4.00 & over the last 4 years Lowe's worst year in ratio was in 2007 were Lowe had a 1.27 Ratio. Lowe did have new surrondings last year in Atlanta but last year was a veyr bad surprise. Having said that, Lowe is a professional pitcher and Atlanta should be a decent team in 2010. I believe in many leagues Lowe will go for a very good price come draft day in fact he will probably go for half the price he did last year maybe less. If Lowe goes for a discount again it's a great oportunity here. I believe Lowe can bounce back and give you 12 to 14 wins with an era around 4, ratio around 1.30 and K's should be around 140. If the price is right go for Derek Lowe.

Kyle Lohse - Age 31
2009 - 6W, 4.74 ERA, 1.37 Ratio, 77K, 117 2/3 IP
2008 - 15W, 3.78 ERA, 1.30 Ratio, 119K, 200 IP

Injuries and the Dave Duncan magic must have worn off in 2009. I think Lohse if healthy for a full season can give you 12-13 wins, but, at the end of the day, to me in roto he is a back end starter for you and on draft day you should spend no more than 6 or 7 dollars. On a good year, Lohse is slightly better than a push on era & ratio and Lohse gives you very few K's. Let someone else draft him.

Brad Lidge - Age 33
2009 - 0W, 31SV, 7.21 ERA, 1.81 Ratio, 61K in 58 2/3 IP
2008 - 2W, 41SV, 1.95 ERA, 1.23 Ratio, 92K in 69 1/3 IP

Lidge goes from a year where he doesn't blow a save including the post season in 2008 to what he did in 2009. How is that possible? Lidge is also coming off elbow and knee surgeries and could miss a little time at the beginning of the season. Would I be surprised if Lidge bounces back? No I wouldn't, but just to many issues for me so I would get a different closer for your team unless you can get a huge discount on Lidge.

Matt Capps - Age 26
2009 - 4W, 27SV, 5.80 ERA, 1.66 Ratio, 46K in 54 1/3 IP
2008 - 2W, 21SV, 3.02 ERA, 0.97 Ratio, 39K in 53 2/3 IP

Capps had 3 good seasons in a row as a reliever including 2008 where Capps took over as the closer. So last year was a bad surprise. Capps is only 26, gets a fresh start in Washington and also keep in mind of the 35 earned runs Capps gave up in 2009 15 of those earned runs came in 4 appearances that was over 3 innings in those outings. I think Capps in most leagues will go for a cheap price come draft and is a very good candidate to be come back player of the year. Having said that buy him only at a good discount.

Also you NL owners keep an eye where Chien-Ming Wang signs. It seems it is more likely to land in the NL (makes more sense for Wang to sign in the NL to get his value back up) and the early word is Wang could be pitching in the majors sometime in mid to late May. As of the posting of this article, Chien-Ming Wang will sign with the Washington Nationals!

NL King - C.Lizza

No comments: