Tuesday, March 16, 2010

NL King - Jose Reyes, is He Worth the Risk? Plus Lance Berkman too...

Last week continued the stretch of bad news for the Mets. As I am sure all of you know by now Jose Reyes has a Thyroid problem and will be out for 2 to 8 weeks (as of late last week). Reyes cannot come back until his thyroid levels come back to normal. I heard on interview on the radio this week with a doctor in this area of expertise and the doctor said typical four weeks is a good bench mark. If this is the case, that would take Reyes until the first week of April, but keep in mind during this time he cannot do any physical activities. So I would say especially considering after missing 2/3 of last year because of hamstring problems, it will require Reyes about 3 weeks of training in Florida when his Thyroid levels get back to normal. Also keep in mind Reyes has done very little in spring training up until this point. So we're looking at possibly as late as mid-May.

So how does an NL only owner handle this situation? If one's NL only draft was over the next week or so, do not touch Jose Reyes at all. I would imagine the next update will be in a couple of weeks and based on that information we can maybe see a timeline on Reyes's return. Until that time you have to assume the worst and maybe Reyes needs close to 8 weeks and then on top of that 3 weeks of extended spring training. If your draft is at the end of March / beginning of April, hopefully by then there will be a time line and you can map out Reyes return. But keep in mind Reyes already was a risk by the fact of his injured hamstring from last year. One of the reasons the Mets and manager Jerry Manuel wanted to bat Reyes 3rd was to protect that hamstring and have Reyes steal a lot less, especially at the beginning of season. I have stated before what made Reyes an elite NL fantasy player was the fact he would get you 60 steals. If those 60 steals are now 30, Reyes is still a very good fantasy player to get but this changes things dramatically. My advice is to let some other owner take the risk on Reyes. If you are going to draft Reyes make sure you get a huge discount.

Quick note on Lance Berkman as well... Berkman had knee surgery on Saturday March 13th. Early word was Berkman would miss 2 to 4 weeks and could start the year on the DL. Honestly I think an accurate time line for Berkman to start the season would be late April. He is having knee surgery and Berkman, while not old is 34 and been injury plagued in the past. Maybe Berkman's body is starting to break down? Berkman is a risk and again see in late March how Berkman is progressing but even if Berkman is doing well, you need to get a big draft day discount on him to make it worth while.

NL King - C.Lizza

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