Thursday, February 17, 2011

NL King - Analyzing NL Only League Starting Pitchers Part 4

We wrap up the NL Only starting pitchers rankings with the Wildcards. These guys could have value for 2011 but are there are factors that make them, well, wildcards. However, taking a chance for low dollars on draft day could become very rewarding and possibly lead you to a championship.
Listing in alphabetical order:
Chris Capuano - NYM - Fighting for one of the back end spots in the Mets rotation. He is a former 18 game winner but that was back in 2005. Also hasn't had a healthy season since 2007. If he is available in the taxi squad part of your draft maybe worth a flyer then.

Aaron Cook - COL - Even during his plus years not a great ratio guy and hardly any K's.

Kevin Correia - PIT - Looking for that 09 magic but that was in Petco and now in Pittsburgh.

R.A. Dickey - NYM - The 35 year old made his knuckle ball dance last year. Has Dickey found a new career or is he a one hit wonder? Pitching at Citi Field doesn't hurt.

Tom Gorzelanny - WSH - The Nats gave up 3 minor leaguer's to land Gorzelanny. At times put in some strong outings but over the long haul is a ratio killer.

Jason Hammel - COL - Might get you 10 wins but will hurt your ERA and ratio with mediocre K's.

J.A. Happ - HOU - For parts of a season Happ has shown he can be a very solid starter and at times even better than that. In 2011 we will see what Happ can do for a full season which he has never done before. Houston will give him the ball every 5th day.
Aaron Harang - SD - The last 3 years have been a very rough go for Harang. Before that in 06 and 07 Harang won 16 games each season with a sub 4 ERA and a solid to strong ratio along with 200+K's. Harang hopes that Petco field will help find the magic of those years. Being around Bud Black can't hurt either.
Wade LeBlanc - SD - Could be a great back of the rotation starter if he can bring down his walks and hence his 1.4+ Ratio. Can't live with that ratio as a back end starter.
Kyle Lohse - STL - After his magical 08 season and big contract extension Lohse has been both bad and hurt. I am a huge believer in Dave Duncan but I think Lohse has had his moment in the sun.
Jason Marquis - WSH - Coming back from major surgery so it could take Marquis some time before he finds his stride. Before the injury when on good teams Marquis was a real good win guy who threw you some K's and roughly a league average in ER and Ratio. But now coming back from a big injury and on a sub 500 club.

Dustin Moseley - SD - Could be a great taxi squad - reserve pick as he could be the 5th starter in San Diego. Looked very good at times with the Yankees last year.

Bud Norris - HOU
- His 1st half last year makes his ERA and ratio look unlivable but the potential is there. Norris found his stride in the 2nd half and finished with 158K's in 153+IP. This is a super sleeper, remember he is only 25. Takes time with pitchers often to put it all together.

Ross Ohlendorf - PIT - How bad are the Pirates? In 21 starts Ohlendorf pitched to a 4.07 ERA which is not bad but yet had a 1-11 record. Big reason why you want your depth starters from good teams. Having said that would be a great taxi squad - reserve guy and just maybe Ohlendorf will repeat his 09 production.
Vicente Padilla - LA - Will start the year as the long man in the Dodgers bullpen. If there is an injury to someone in the staff he would join the rotation.

Joe Saunders - ARZ - Won 17 games in 08 and 16 games in 09 but that was for a division winning Angel team, now he is on probably a 70 win D-Backs team. Plus not a great ratio guy the last couple of years and always been a low K guy. I would pass.

Johan Santana - NYM - Johan is out until at least June and there is a good chance you probably won't see Santana until after the all star break. That is just an educational guess because the Mets have a lot invested in Santana over the next few years at roughly 23 million per season so the Mets will be ultra cautious with Santana. So what does this mean for NL only roto owners? I can only see really two scenarios for Santana to give NL only owners real value. The reason I say that because coming off shoulder surgery and pitching for roughly a half year for a sub 500 team at best I see Santana giving owners $10 to $12 worth of value. So you can get Santana for around that price come draft day with the idea of having a big future trade chip come July for a rebuilding team or you will have Santana yourself at a really low price for next season and beyond. This is assuming that after this year Santana going forward will pitch like an ace. If you are in a situation where you have a ton of draft dollars in your league I can see picking up Santana for $10 to $12 and having him as a big future chip but other than that can't see spending the money on him.
Stephen Strasburg - WSH - Well basically what I just said about Santana applies to Strasburg except with Strasburg we know he is out for the 2011 season (Nats hoping he can make a start or two by late September to setup 2012). So how many 2011 draft dollars do you spend given this situation? How much do you think or more importantly the other owners in your league think Strasburg is worth? For arguments sake let's say most people in your league thinks a healthy Strasburg is worth $30, what kind of return can you get from a rebuilding team come early July for Strasburg? Again if you are you in a position where you have a lot of draft dollars on draft day spending $12 or $13 on Strasburg could net a huge return for the 2nd half run, it's risky but could be a very rewarding play.

Chris Young - NYM - I had Chris Young on my team to start the season last year. I had him at $1 I thought it was a good player for a $1 to have Young as one of my depth starters. If Young can stay healthy and pitching in another big ballpark in Citi Field Young can be a really good depth starter for you. But that is a huge if.

Carlos Zambrano - CHC - When Big Z is committed and focus he can be a excellent #3 starter for you. Having said that hard to say Big Z being focused for the majority of the year. If you get him cheap sure it's a good gamble but will you get him cheap in your league based on his 2nd half?
NL King - C.Lizza

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