Wednesday, February 02, 2011

NL King - Analyzing NL Only Outfielders Part 1

This fantasy baseball NL Only outfielders ranking includes advice on $30+ OF's, $10-$20 OF's and the bargain bin. This is part 1 of 2....


$30+ Elite Outfielders:
Carlos Gonzalez - Col - At age 25, Cargo has emerged as one of the top fantasy hitters in all MLB. In fact, given his age, it's only a matter of time that he takes over the #1 spot in all MLB. Big Power, close to 30 steals and will challenge for the batting title.
Ryan Braun - Mil - Entering his prime at age 27, and has been a 5 category player his 4 years in the majors. His numbers last year while slightly down across the board compared to 09 but at the end of the day he is still a 5 category player and no reason his numbers can't jump back to the 09 levels.
Justin Upton - Arz - I thought last year that Upton would break through and become one of the top five hitters in the NL. His numbers were real good when he played but Upton missed 29 games last season (missed 24 games in 09 as well) but keep in mind many baseball people think that Upton has the ability to be one of the top players in all of baseball. Remember he is just 23.
Matt Holliday - Stl - If you want a sure thing for your $30 Matt Holliday is your guy. He is going to get you close to 30HR's, 100 R's and RBI's, avg in the low .300's and SB's in the low teens.
Matt Kemp - LA - You keep reading about Matt Kemp and his five tool talent but also read about his poor attitude at times and dedication. When you consider the numbers Kemp has put up since becoming a starter in 07 (last years .249 avg aside) and the questions of his attitude it's scary to think what Kemp can do if he brought his A game day in and day out. Can new manager Don Mattingly a former great player himself bring that out in Kemp? If so he would take a back seat to no one.

$10-$20 OF's:
Carlos Lee - Hou - Qualifies for both 1B and OF. His .246 average last year could make him a bargain on draft day in your league. Still a 25HR and close to 100 RBI guy and I expect his average to be much better this year.
Marlon Byrd - CHC - The guy is steady Eddie and will help you across the board. I expect better power numbers this season, a few more HR's and RBI's.
Tyler Colvin - CHC - Had great numbers in 350 AB's and at just the age of 25 he is capable of improvement which is scary.
Jose Tabata - PIT - Had a great rookie season and I have always read that his power will develop. Remember his only 22 and even if his power doesn't develop will be a real good R's, SB's and average guy.
Nyjer Morgan - Wsh - SB's are at such a premium in the NL and Morgan should steal 35 even in a bad year (had 34 steals last year and missed 26 games last year). Very capable if healthy for a full season can knock on the door for 50 steals.
Ryan Ludwick - SD - I know he is now in Petco and his power numbers were down last year but only played in 136 games last year and will be the cleanup hitter for the Pads from day one.
Alfonso Soriano - CHC - At age 35 his great years are behind him as well as the days of Soriano being a stolen base guy but if his body can hold up can still be a power bat that gives you 30HR's with 90 RBI's. Probably a guy who hits in the .250's now.
Raul Ibanez - PHI - Given that he turns 39 during the season and that his numbers came way down compared to 09 last year, Ibanez has a chance to be a real nice bargain come draft day. Remember still in the best hitters park in the NL and a real good lineup. For the right price can be a real solid and consistent player for you.
Cody Ross - SF - A solid bat and even though the Giants have a lot of outfielders Ross should be a starting player 75% of the time.
Chris Coghlan - Fla - I would like to see a few more HR's and SB's but a solid player.
Wil Venable - SD - In most drafts will go a lot more than he should because of his 29 steals. Still despite the poor average and if you have enough good average hitters to compensate that Venable can be a real asset.
Johnny Gomes - CIN - Would be higher ranked if the Reds loved him more. Has real good power and plays in a bam box but Reds always looking for someone else for LF since Gomes has come to Cincinnati.
Colorado Platoon - Seth Smith and Ryan Spilborghs
Smith wil get a lot more AB's because he will face the righties on most days and Spilborghs the lefties. Smith can be an excellent #4 OF for you and Spilborghs an excellent #5.
SF Giants Crowded OF - Considering Torres and Ross will get the starts on most days that means there is just one open OF spot on most days between Nate Schierholtz, Mark DeRosa, Aaron Rowand and Pat Burrell. I can see a trade coming because that's too many players. Watch closely in the spring.

Bargain Bin:
Fred Lewis - Cin - Had a real nice year for Toronto last year and is the athletic type of player the Reds want for LF.
Rick Ankiel - Wsh - If he can get back to his old form he will play everyday.
Roger Bernadina - Wsh - Has pop and speed but again in a battle for playing time.
Logan Morrison - Fla - I like his approach at plate, very disciplined and usually good things come from that but 2HR's and 0 SB's in 244 AB's is not going to cut it. However this kid does have talent if you get him cheap at the end of the draft grab him.
Scott Cousins - Fla - Watch his spring he could make the team and could be cheap speed for you.
Gerardo Parra - Arz - Arizona LF situation is wide open. He maybe the starter, not much power or speed but could be a good depth player for you.
Ben Francisco - PHI - Rakes lefties and considering how left handed the Phillies are as well as Dominic Brown's youth and Raul Ibanez age will get a good amount of AB's and be a great 5th OF for you.
Carlos Gomez - Mil - Has speed potential but doesn't hit enough.
Chris Denorfia - SD - The career minor leaguer showed he can be a real nice depth outfielder.
Kosuke Fukudome - CHC - On the last year of his contract and the Cubs are committed to playing Soriano, Byrd and Colvin almost every day.
Mike Morse - Wsh - Has pop and but in a real battle for playing time.
Chris Dickerson - Mil - Great athlete but seems to always get injured but I am not a great believer in Carlos Gomez so keep an eye on his spring training.
Chris Heisey - Cin - Showed some good things in a small amount of AB's but due to the numbers might start the year in AAA.
Matt Diaz - PIT - Hits lefties great but not righties plus now on Pittsburgh.
Marcus Thames - LAD - Rakes lefties but he is tough to watch in the OF which will hurt his AB's.
Jay Gibbons - LAD - The 33 year old had a great September after not being in baseball since 2007.
Scott Hairston - NYM - I am a fan od Hairston's pop but now in Citifield and unless there is an injury to the Mets starters in the OF AB's will be hard to come by.

Next Up - The Outfielders Part 2 - The $20 Group, the Wildcards, the rookie watch and anything down on the farm.
NL King - C.Lizza

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