Monday, May 02, 2011

April Fantasy Baseball Thoughts for NL Only Leagues

These are some random fantasy baseball thoughts or advice in NL Only leagues based on the first month of the season. As the NL King, I like to think I know my NL players. Follow the logic.... A hitter like Carlos Gonzalez for example, can have an awful April and then have a hot 10 days and all of sudden his numbers look great. That is not uncommon as hitters catch fire and then can really put up numbers in a short period of time. Keep that in mind in regards to hitters that are struggling. Also, Home Run hitters tend to hit them in bunches. Another point is it seems to me that reading the various fantasy sites for information I notice these sites are very bandwagon as far as view points in their analysis. What I mean in that is when a guy is hot who looks like he is playing well over his head these sites talk about how this player is going to have a career year. Or, if a player is struggling they make it sound like he won't turn it around. Below are some of my real thoughts on some of our struggling stars.

Remember players are going to have peaks and valleys and it's your job to understand the talent of the player and the team he is on in terms of opportunity and what you can expect for his numbers over the course of a full season. Do not take what any one site says as Gospel. To illustrate this, after Mitchell Boggs got his first save a website said how he was the Cardinals closer of the future etc., etc., etc. After one blown save he was back in middle relief. Obviously that situation in St. Louis is very up in the air but my point being is do the research and think of the long term possibilities.
- Ubaldo Jimenez - April was an awful. That cuticle cut really has messed him up. I still expect his final numbers to be strong so don't let any other site influence you differently.
- Lance Berkman - Looked completely shot last year especially with the Yankees. Some how he cloned himself into Albert Pujols. I cannot see it lasting and with his body and age and playing the outfield every day. I expect Berkman to have a rough second half. Enjoy the ride while it lasts and quite frankly at the end of the day if Berkman gives you a $20 year you are way ahead of the game.
- Jorge De la Rosa - His track record indicates he is very up and down and that is reflective in his career ERA and Ratio. Also been known to catch the injury bug.
- Neil Walker - So far looks like last year was no fluke.
- Chris Coghlan - As long as he can stay healthy showing he can be a real good NL only bat.
- Josh Johnson - Didn't have a great spring and with his past injury issues a lot of people were a little concerned. Showing that he is one of the top starting pitchers in baseball.
 - Kyle Lohse - I am not buying in, at the end of the year could be a good depth starter for you but don't expect more than that.
 - Drew Storen - It doesn't matter he couldn't get anyone out in the Spring.
 - Troy Tulowitzki - Love to see his final numbers if he can play over 150 games.
 - Chipper Jones - Can be a solid bat just has to stay healthy which is a huge if. Can he hold up?
 - Alfonso Soriano - Not the same player he once was but if you make a mistake he can hit in out of the ballpark which is what is happening.
 - Ike Davis - I was wrong about him, don't get me wrong I liked Ike bit thought he could have a sophomore slump because I didn't think he would have any protection behind him and that would effect him. One of the few things Met fans should feel good about.
 - Drew Stubbs - Looking like a 4 category player with a .250 average. Looks like last year could be a typical year for him.
 - Stephen Drew - Excelling in the # 4 spot.
 - Tommy Hanson - I think he is about to take off.
 - Chris Young - I am from Missouri so you have to show me first that he can even be healthy for half a season.
 - Zack Greinke - Comes back this week so be patient as it could take him 3 or so starts to get rolling.
 - Pablo Sandoval - Bad break as Panda looked like he was getting back to 2009 form just at a much lower weight.
 - Logan Morrison - I liked this kid and thought he could be a sleeper for this year. Comes off the DL soon. Keep in mind while his numbers last summer were far from eye popping he always put up good at bats, had good game plan and I figured good things were ahead for this kid.
 - Angel Pagan - Be patient Pagan owners long season.
 - Shawn Marcum & Matt Garza - Big difference pitching in the NL Central than the AL East. Expect both to have real good years.
 - Carlos Beltran - Looks great I would be slightly concerned that the
Mets never give him a day off. They are going to run him into the ground if they keep this up.
Ian Stewart - Back with the Rocks, expect decent power numbers for this year. Again needs to put more balls in play way too many K's.
 - Raul Ibanez - When you start out like he has at his age people are going to say your done. He better get going because Dominic Brown is right around the corner.
 - Carlos Gonzalez - I predict a huge May for Cargo. He tried to do too much in April. Remember signed a big extension in the off-season and that could have lead to a slow start this year. That's very common.
 - Andrew McCutchen - I predict a big May as well, needs to get those caught steals down.
 - Pedro Alvarez - Off to a rough start remember how I said power hitters can be streaky. If you can buy low on him now - POUNCE !!!
 - Mat Latos - Keep the faith the injury probably set him back a little before hitting his grove. Although keep in mind how many IP he did last year compared to 09.
- Jonathan Broxton - Have to like the number of saves he has but he has looked awful. Saving grace is LAD has Kuo and Janse.
- Kelly Johnson - He is a streaky player so must keep that in mind so don't jump off the bridge yet.
- James Loney - Never been a fan, no pop.
- Hanley Ramirez - He will have a huge May, he is just pressing.
- Mike Pelfrey - I would be worried if I was a Pelfrey owner.
- Eduardo Sanchez - In terms of the St.Louis bullpen I predict no later than Memorial Day Weekend Eduardo Sanchez will be the Cardinals full time closer.

C. Lizza - NL King

No comments: