Friday, March 23, 2012

NL King - Strategy Regarding Injuries in NL Only League

I felt compelled to write an article regarding injuries heading into your drafts.  Most injuries are slow healing and and with these crazy contracts, a lot of money is at stake so a cautious approach will be taken. Let's look at three situations in depth as an example on how to approach injured players and the information out there. These three players will undoubtedly have an affect on your draft.
Corey Hart - Recently had minor knee surgery (is there such a thing) and it went very well and already is feeling really good. Hart believes he has a real good shot at being ready on opening day. First off, setbacks do happen and therefore it could be late April or even early May when Hart returns. Again, the Milwaukee Brewers are going to look at the long haul on how to proceed with Hart. The baseball season is a marathon and not a sprint and when Hart does come back that want him feeling good and so that his injury is behind him. So in Corey Hart's case you could take advantage in your draft if he goes for a nice discount (20% less maybe) but just figure on late April and be cautiously optimistic that he can come back sooner.

Tim Hudson - Hudson had a back procedure back in November and the word was that most likely his 2012 season would start late. That has been confirmed as his target date is May 1st.  Back injuries are slow healing and due to Hudson's age, the injury itself and the amount of dollars the Braves are paying Hudson, they will take it slow. Am I saying that I know Tim Hudson won't be ready until Memorial Day? No of course not, but what I am saying is due to the nature of the injury setbacks are known to happen and are likely to happen. Hudson the last two years has been a top notch starter and so if you can get a really good discount come draft day taking advantage of that is not a bad strategy. Keep in mind, he may not be ready until late May and so we're talking about missing almost two months of the season which is significant. So there is signidficant risk with Hudson in my estimation.

Ryan Howard - When Ryan Howard made the last out of the NLDS and tore his achillies I knew he's be out for at least half of the 2012 season. Just a hunch. When Spring Training was about to start I was amazed how many places I read that Howard would be back in early May and just maybe opening day. This made no sense to me based on this severe injury. As it turns out, he had a major setback to a major injury. Situation like this you can trust no information because you have to see how he progresses each week. To me, just based on my years of following sports and doing fantasy baseball, I can't imagine Ryan Howard being back until at least mid June. In fact, if I was a betting man I would say it will take him until the All-Star break. But those are educated guesses based on the severity of the injury, his setback, how long those kind of injuries it takes for it to heal and the fact the Phillies have a lot of dollars invested in Ryan Howard over the next few years.

Point being on any injury, espeically big injuries, you always get a estimated time line such as 2 - 4 weeks as an example. Research the injury of this particular player and always estimate that it will take much longer for that injury to heal. If you follow Roto long enough I think you will find that in the vast majority of cases it takes players longer to come back as opposed to sooner. Final point, David Wright is dealing with a tear in his 6-Pack but says it's no big deal. Really, I wouldn't think a tear anywhere is no big deal but I am not a doctor but that does make me very leary of David Wright until I see him out on the field and playing with no issues.

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NL King - C.Lizza

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