Monday, December 10, 2012

The Fantasy Man's 2013 Fantasy Baseball Rankings - Starting Pitchers

The Fantasy Man's 2013 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers SP Rankings

The Elite Tier 1:
Clayton Kershaw
Justin Verlander
Felix Hernandez
Stephen Strasburg
Roy Halladay
Cliff Lee
Cole Hamels
C.C. Sabathia
Jered Weaver
Zack Greinke
David Price
Matt Cain

The "Who am I?" Tier 2:
Tim Lincecum
R.A. Dickey
Johnny Cueto

The "I can be elite but not totally sure but definitely good enough to build around" Tier 3:
Chris Sale
Adam Wainwright
Jon Lester
Josh Johnson
Gio Gonzalez
James Shields
Madison Bumgarner
Yovani Gallardo
Mat Latos
Jordan Zimmerman
Brandon Morrow
Doug Fister
C.J. Wilson

The "Jury is still out but the upside is potentially elite" Tier 4:
(Potential Breakout Picks)
Aroldis Chapman
Tommy Hanson
Ian Kennedy
Max Scherzer
Matt Moore
Yu Darvish

The VALUE Tier 5:
(Former elites, upside here [kinda], solid consistent starters, should be available later for value)
Jake Peavy
Dan Haren
Josh Beckett
Ryan Dempster
Chris Capuano
Chris Carpenter
Johan Santana
Tim Hudson
Huroki Kuroda
Andy Pettitte
Ryan Vogelsong
Shaun Marcum
Jaime Garcia
Matt Garza
Ricky Romero
A.J. Burnett
Brett Anderson
Matt Harrison
Jason Vargas

The Second Value Tier 6:
(Young talent with upside, offer some risk but have shown potential elite type talent, more value)
Jon Niese
Jarrod Parker
Lance Lynn
Kris Medlen
Wade Miley
Bud Norris
Homer Bailey
Phil Hughes
Vance Worley
Wei-yin Chen
Jeremy Hellickson
Randall Delgado
Marco Estrada
Brandon McCarthy
Henderson Alvarez
Derek Holland
Franklin Morales
Clayton Richard
Jose Quintana

The "Forgotten High Risk High Reward but who knows" Tier 7:
(Talented players we want to believe in but haven't put it together yet, formerly of the Second Value Tier)
Edinson Volquez
Ivan Nova
Chad Billingsley
James McDonald
Trevor Cahill
Ricky Nolasco
Wandy Rodriguez

The Fantasy Man's Super Sleepers Tier 8:
Mike Minor
Alex Cobb
Patrick Corbin
Mike Fiers
Miguel Bautista
A. J. Griffin
Scott Diamond
Alexi Ogando
John Lackey

The Hot Over-hyped Rookie Types Tier 9:
Matt Harvey
Julio Teheran
Shelby Miller

Analysis:
Yeah, it's a lot of tiers, I know.  If a starter isn't listed, I either forgot about them or I feel they're simply waiver wire material in a 12 teamer.  There's a few waiver wire potentials on this list in shallow leagues but for deeper leagues there's values to be had at the right times in any draft.  My thought process here is a straight ranking is useless since there are so many SP's offering different value stories, so I split it up into tiers that I would personally use in a draft and when an opportunity presents itself, I strike based off these tiers.

Tier 1:
Obvious SP's you can draft in rounds 2-4 based on your league settings. If you downgrade any of these guys, you might as well just give me your money now.

Tier 2:
Three elite SP's that scare me, and probably you but if their right, the value you get here (if they fall in the 5th or later) can make or break your season. Tim Lincecum is elite talent with the biggest question mark but he has #1 SP potential, has proven it and if you believe its just a fluke of a bad season, the value here is insane.  R.A. Dickey has been a top 10 SP over the last three years, look it up. But, he's 37 and coming off his best year and about to get paid so the question is age and motivation. if you read his book, you pay extra for Dickey.  Johnny Cueto's 2012 was actually better then his 2011. The crazies out there will think he will be better then 2012 but I'm just not sure how much more ceiling there is.  maybe a few extra K's and 2-3 more wins so still elite but I need one more showing to include in the elite tier.

Tier 3:
These guys are your solids right down the list in order of preference for me.  They get you the stats you need and also provide potential elite status in just about all of them but haven't recently performed like the elite.  This is the group where you can successfully cherry pick and build your staff around if you miss on an elite.

Tier 4:
Yep, the jury is still out on these guys.  Chapman has insane and elite stuff, but as a starter? Eh, I would leave him as a closer and continue dominance. I see the next Joba Chamberlain here. Can Tommy Hanson stay healthy? Who knows. Can Max Scherzer cut down the walks and the dingers? Otherwise he has elite stuff. Do we get the Ian Kennedy of 2011 or 2012? Will Matt Moore, rookie super hype of 2012, take the next step? He has obvious talent.  Same goes for Yu Darvish. So these guys have elite stuff but just need to take the next step to elite status and show consistency.

Tier 5:
This is a tier of former elites, or just good solid starters who maybe are a bit older, have recently struggled, or maybe have been injured but still offer a glimmer of eliteness from time to time.  These are SP's you can count on who won't kill your stats but should slip later in the draft simply because there are more exciting options such as what you see in Tier 5.  Personally, I'll take Tim Hudson over Wade Miley any day, or Jake Peavy over Lance Lynn, etc.  I rather experience over youth near the end of the draft since I'm drafting my upside guys earlier in Tier 3.... but thats just me. Lots of "no longer sexy" picks here that will provide excellent fantasy stats.

Tier 6:
The second value tier here similar to Tier 4 but younger SP's with obvious talent but we need to see them do it again and take that next step. These are the guys you can get in rounds 16-22 in a 12 team snake or for $5 or less in a 12 team $260 auction league where their youth and talent can provide mucho value.

Tier 7:
These are starters you draft to fill your 8th and 9th slots and hope for the steal of the draft. There's talent here, have shown glimpses, but haven't put it together year and running out of time.

Tier 8:
These are my super sleepers because no one is talking about them.  Patrick Corbin is a guy I have read AND heard in the same sentence as being "special".  That's a huge keyword for me.  Bautista was amazing down the stretch for Baltimore, Friers racked up K's, Griffin was just simply solid, Diamond came out of the gates hot, we've seen Ogando dominate, and John Lackey if healthy and his mind right could be a steal at the end of your draft.  These are the guys I fill my last slot or two with.

Tier 9:
The over-hyped rookie types are what they are.  Unless your talking Stephen Strasburg or Clayton Kershaw, just relax and sit down. Matt Harvey's potential is crazy based off his few performances late but if your skipping over tier 3-4 and some of tier 5 for a guy like Harvey, you're asking to finish in last place. I'm just not a believer in drafting rookies like this because you always end up paying market price or more for 16th round or later numbers. Best case: Matt Moore 2011.  People were drafting this guy in the 10th round and sometimes earlier last year. Just too early thanks to the hype.



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