Tuesday, December 04, 2012

The Fantasy Man's 2013 Fantasy Baseball Rankings - Shortstops

The Fantasy Man's 2013 Fantasy Baseball Shortstops SS Rankings

1. Hanley Ramirez
2. Jose Reyes
3. Troy Tulowitzski
4. Ian Desmond
5. Starlin Castro
6. Ben Zobrist
7. Elvis Andrus
8. Jimmy Rollins
9. Asdrubal Cabrera
10. Derek Jeter
11. Danny Espinoza
12. Jhonny Peralta
13. Zack Cozart
14. Jed Lowrie
15. Dee Gordon
16. Alcides Escobar
17. Stephen Drew
18. Yuneal Escobar
19. Marco Scutaro
20. Rafael Furcal
21. Josh Rutledge - Super sleeper with full-time play
22. Andrelton Simmons

Probable Overhyped Magazine Sleeper: Zack Cozart
Last Years Overhyped Magazine Sleeper: Asdrubal Cabrera
The Fantasy Man's Sleeper: Dee Gordon
The Fantasy Man's Super Sleeper: Josh Rutledge
Bust Candidate: Rafael Furcal
Value Play - Stephen Drew - Its going to happen at some point...

Analysis:  Is this deja vu? Shortstop here is looking almost as bad as second base as far as depth. Is it just me or does this list just not provide any excitement at the position?  Good news is that, at least in my opinion, Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez might be slightly better values then their norm the last few years. What I mean is, their flare for crazy upside and top 5 status is dwindling as we sort of know what we're going to get so they're available towards the end of the 1st round and maybe slipping into the early second. That would be nice value for me considering how weak the MI positions are.  If you can walk out of the draft with a late round pick and snag Reyes, Ramirez, or Tulowitzski one and two, you could really do some damage. Considering our options this year, I'd say that position scarcity, more then ever, should apply to your draft strategy.  I'm not big on position scarcity because its almost a moo point if you know where to find value in the draft late.  However, since "late" isn't looking great, I may have to personally take a stronger look at scarcity.

The sleeper outlook here is solid later in the draft.  I'm looking at players like Zack Cozart, Alcides Escobar, Dee Gordon, and Josh Rutledge.   Some things to like about my sleepers...

Escobar - hit .293 with 35SB in 605AB
Cozart - showed 15HR pop in 561 in rookie season, 20+ not out of the question as he grows
Gordon - 32SB in 303AB and hurt half the season, 50+ SB late in draft at scarce position makes sense
Rutledge - Hit .277 with 37R, 8HR, 37RBI, and 7SB, super sleeper here if he gets a chance to play

So in simple terms, I like Cozart later for power, Escobar and Gordon for BA and speed, and Rutledge for a potential fantasy gem with full-time play.

On the bust side, I already mentioned Marco Scutaro in the 2B Rankings and I've pretty much given up on Stephen Drew and Rafael Furcal. Someone else can draft these fantasy headaches.

The biggest gainer on the list and new comer to the second tier is Ian Desmond.  Desmond hit .292 with 25HR and 21SB and was a spark on an improved Nationals team which looks good again for 2013. Desmond will likely continue to hit at the top of the order and while I don't see 30/30 potential, we have been proven wrong and he could get you 200+ hits if he gets 600+ AB and stays healthy.  I'd love to draft Desmond here if I miss out on the top 3 where he'll provide potentially second round type numbers from possibly the late 3rd through 5th rounds depending on draft. I say that because a true guru will smoke out Desmond early enough, but he doesn't quite have the name recognition or the proven experience to normally be drafted in the top 3 rounds of a 12 teamer by magazine readers.... in my opinion.  Magazine reader = the guy who picked up a magazine the night before the draft.  Now if the mags come out in January and support my position on Desmond, then you can throw that theory out the window.

As for the draft, if you miss out on a top 3 in the first two rounds, Desmond in the late 3rd or 4th if you have the guts, then you might as well wait until somewhere in the 7th - 10th rounds where you can grab  a Rollins, Jeter, Cabrera, Espinoza or Peralta as a safety net. Otherwise, I'd wait until later 13th-16th rounds to grab Gordon or Escobar or take a chance on Rutledge (assuming full-time play).  That's my particular strategy at SS this year.

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