Wednesday, December 05, 2012

The Fantasy Man's 2013 Fantasy Baseball Rankings - Third Base

The Fantasy Man's 2013 Fantasy Baseball Third Basemen 3B Rankings

1. Miguel Cabrera
2. David Wright
3. Evan Longoria
4. Adrian Beltre
5. Pablo Sandoval
6. Brett Lawrie
7. Ryan Zimmerman
8. Mike Moustakas
9. Kevin Youkilis
10. Aramis Ramirez
11. Chase Headley
12. David Freese
13. Pedro Alvarez
14. Martin Prado
15. Michael Young
16. Kyle Seager
17. Will Middlebrooks
18. Trevor Plouffe
19. Manny Machado
20. Mark Reynolds
21. Daniel Murphy
22. Placido Polanco
23. Jeff Keppinger
24. Eduardo Nunez
25. Alex Rodriguez*

Overhyped Magazine Sleeper: Manny Machado
The Fantasy Man's Sleeper: Mike Moustakas and Pedro Alvarez
The Fantasy Man's Super Sleeper: Eduardo Nunez
Bust Candidate: Aramis Ramirez - You just never know when this guy will take a half season off at the plate

Analysis:  Its weird not seeing Alex Rodriguez's name in the top 5 but news just broke that A-Rod will be out 4-6 months with a second hip surgery. There's a few ways to look at this.  Depending on your belief and the reports in spring training before your draft, you'll want to apply the 3 possibilities below and draft accordingly...

1. 4 months is December - March, a month or so of extended spring training, and he's back by the end of May. That's best case scenario.

2. A more realistic guess would be that same 4 months recovery time, all goes well, but they simply push him back to the All-Star break.  To me it seems whenever a player is supposed to be back in May, it ends up delayed until the All-Star break. Never fails.

3. Worst case scenario is he's out for the 5-6 month range in which case I'll assume he'll be out for the year.

My thinking here is that A-Rod will be close to the #2 scenario. The media will sensationalize the possibility of the end of A-Rod, but personally, I think we'll see him in the second half. He's a fast healer. In this case, I'm going to draft A-Rod solely as a stash. As some of my loyal readers know, I am a big A-Rod fan and still a believer, but I'm realistic too. So I like A-Rod in the say 12th - 15th rounds of your draft purely as a high risk high reward stash or grab for $5 or less in the auction and keep for next year. In keeper leagues, you must must must think about A-Rod in the second half of your draft!

There's not much in the way of sleepers on this list but thank goodness is somewhat deep with lots of high upside players after your top 12. Big sleeper picks for me for a boost in rankings by the end of the season could be Pedro Alvarez and Mike Moustakas.  Alvarez has monster power, 35HR+ power but the whiffs and the inconsistency could kill your championship chances. However, Alvarez can get super streaky and hot and those flashes add up in stats.  I like upside in every category, the lineup is looking stronger, table setters at the top of the order.  I'll go as far as to say I see a 100+ RBI season coming up.  You heard it hear first.

With Mike Moustakas, he had a fine year in Kansas City in 2012 but seems to me like we're treating him like a rookie still.  Hitting .241/20/73/5 leaves a lot to be desired but he's capable of much more. I'm not going to blow smoke up your asses with useless stats. Bottom line is he's only 24, third year in the league and he doesn't strike out a ton.  Probable upside is .270/25/90/5. Potential upside is .290/30/100/5

Super sleeper award goes to Eduardo Nunez either as a 3B while A-Rod is out or simply a utility player getting a ton of playing time.  Fact is Nunez can't catch, but his bat and speed has a ton of potential. The Yankees love his bat but hate his glove so you'll see him spell Derek Jeter, A-Rod or whoever plays 3B, bat as a DH, etc. If he gets a chance to play somewhat consistently, your looking at 20-30SB+ with 10-20 HR.

As for the rest, there's enough here for 14 teams to each get a quality 3B, then a few more to fill your CI or DH slot so the position is somewhat deep. Everyone after Michael Young has questions marks but all provide something. You might be asking why I put Jeff Keppinger on the list over some of the others I may have left off.  Well, Keppinger hit 9 HR last year in half a season (he was hurt in the first half) and holds position eligibility all over the field. He can hit .300 and has been linked to the Yankees as a potential 3B to take the place of A-Rod everyday.  If he lands a full-time position, he's got value written all over him.  Daniel Murphy can hit for a decent average and hits HR's in bunches, although he doesn't hit many. If you can get .275/15 out of him, you'll have some good value on your hands late in the draft. Placido Polanco is simply a solid serviceable player and Mark Reynolds will add some pop and a few SB.

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