Thursday, March 21, 2013

NL Only Fantasy Baseball Advice - Cubs Warning

This article is not going to be about how bad the Cubs will be in 2013 but will be how it's only a matter of time before Theo Epstein sends Matt Garza, Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Marmol packing during the 2013 season.

Matt Garza:
If Garza was on a good team in the NL and was 100% healthy and able to pitch 200 innings then that owner could expect a season of 15 wins, an ERA at 3.50 or lower, a ratio of 1.250 and nearly 200K's. That's a strong season. However being on the Cubs despite his strong debut season with the Cubs in 2011 (3.32 ERA in 31 starts) Garza only won 10 games. Last season was injury riddled one for Garza as he only pitched 103 innings. Plus this spring he has been slowed by a lat muscle injury which will probably mean he will start the year on the DL and not make his 1st start of the year until mid April maybe even the 3rd week of April. Garza will be a free agent after the season and will only turn 30 in November. There will be high demand for Garza and while Theo Epstein is shaping the Cubs for years to come it appears Garza is not part of that plan. Come sometime in July Theo will trade Garza for the best package of prospects he can get. This makes Garza a very risky pick for 2013.

Alfonso Soriano:
Very quietly Soriano had a huge power season last year with 32HR's & 108RBI. However Soriano is 37 and has two years to go on his monster 8 year 136 million dollar contract. Soriano has DH written all over him and if he can be continue to be productive for the 1st half of this season and if Theo is willing to eat a good portion of that contract, Soriano will be moved as Theo wants that playing time to go to some of the young players in his organization. Soriano does have some sort of no trade clause so that can complicate things a bit but as long as Soriano is healthy and a good power bat he will be moved and it only makes sense that's it to a AL team as their DH.

Carlos Marmol:
After his huge 2010 season Marmol has struggled with consistency as the Cubs closer driving them mad. Marmol is on the final year of his contract as he makes 9.6 million this season. The Tigers for one desperately want a closer now although I don't know if they want Marmol. The first chance Theo gets to move Marmol he will do so. Remember Theo signed Japanese reliever Kyuji Fujikawa to a 2 year deal for 10 million dollars total in the off-season. So Theo is ready to move on from Marmol ASAP.

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NL King - C.Lizza

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