Tuesday, May 21, 2013

NL King - Breaking Down Bad Starts

A lot of owners out there in Fantasy Baseball Land are freaking out what position they are in their league standings and how far they are out of first place. Okay I am hear to tell you to take a breath and let's analyze a number of things.

The Percentage Categories:
As I have written before every season everyone must respect the percentage categories of Batting Average, ERA & Ratio. Now we are just at the one quarter poll and there is still 75% of the season left but need to analyze certain facts about your team if you are struggling in these categories.

- Is you batting average bad because you have put together too many low average hitters or is it you have a number of proven hitters just off to really bad starts. So is it you have way too many Dan Uggla's or Pedro Alvarez's or is it you have proven guys just off to terrible starts like Miguel Montero?

- ERA & Ratio I ask the same question is it you have a lot of iffy guys who are killing you or is it  you have a number of decent to good pitchers off to bad starts. That's a huge difference because depending upon the answer the right strategy could be patience versus looking to make trades.
 
Remember about Batting Average you have 14 hitters potentially everyday to get your batting average in gear so it's a lot easier to get your batting average back to where it belongs than the pitching categories of ERA & Ratio. In pitching again a starter only pitches once every 5 days and a reliever on a given week will pitch 3 to 4 innings. There is plenty of time obviously left in the season but you want to start improving in the percentage categories at least to getting within striking distance of moving up these categories by the halfway mark.

The Whole Number Categories:
Unlike the Percentage Categories the remaining 7 Categories are Whole Number Categories where you only add to your numbers. You don't wake up this morning with your team having 50HR's and then tomorrow morning you at 48. Also in regards to these categories it's a lot easier to move up in the categories very quickly with a hot streak. But let's consider some analytical facts in breaking down where you are in the standings.

Let's say you are 10HR's behind really picking up a lot of points. At this stage of the season especially in an NL only league that seems like a lot and you can get down on your team very quickly. But what does that mean? The season is roughly 6 weeks old so being 10HR's down from a bunch of points means that other grouping so far has averaged 1.67 more HR's per week than you or 0.83 per half week. That doesn't seem like a lot at all does it? Furthermore with 75% of the season left that's your team needs to average 0.55 more HR's per week or 0.27 more HR's per every half week. Use this break down for every category and then look at your team and in many cases I think you will see how your team really is not that far behind.

Breaking it down even more let's use that being behind by 10HR example again. When looking at your squad you might find that your big HR hitters are down a bit, your good players are down a bit and a couple of injuries have hampered your numbers as well. That can all turn around very quickly. Understanding why you are down in a certain category is very important because that will lead to good decision making on the right course of action.

Final point is being objective and looking at your roster as you did after your draft and asking yourself do I have enough Power, Speed, Starting Pitching, Saves and am I strong in the percentage categories. You might find you need to make some moves in certain area's because certain things have not worked out or you have been killed by injuries. That's one thing but it's very important not to fly off the handle and break down the numbers and realize where you are in each particular category. Then looking at your roster asking yourself do I have the players to make up the ground and realizing how much ground needs to be made up. I think many of you find I am really not that far behind given how much of the season is left in most of the categories your struggling.

Follow me on Twitter @ TheNLKing

NL King - C.Lizza

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