Monday, May 20, 2013

NL King - Breaking Down Lincecum

Going into this season to me the biggest wildcard in the NL was Tim Lincecum. Linceum entered his 7th season in the big leagues this year, and the two time Cy Young award winner was coming off an unexplainable disatrous season. Linceum had a strong 2011 with a 2.74 ERA & 1.207 Ratio and averaged a K per inning but last year while the K's per inning where there The Freak finished with a 5.18 ERA & 1.468 Ratio. What this can be attributed to the 28 year old young is he had career highs in walks (90) & HR's allowed (23). While last season Lincecum's hits allowed of 183 versus 186IP seems good, for him that was not good. Hitters are getting a lot more hits off of Lincecum then they use to.

In comparing Lincecum IP vs Hits allowed we see the following:

2012 - +3 (186IP vs 183 Hits)
2011 - +41 (217IP vs 176 Hits)
2010 - +18 (212IP vs 194 Hits)
2009 - +57 (225IP vs 168 Hits)
2008 - +45 (227IP vs 182 Hits)
2007 - +24 (146IP vs 122 Hits)

So you add up much more hits allowed as well as the walks and the Home Runs and you get where Tim Lincecum is at right now.

Lincecum going into this season was on his walk year and was hoping for a huge season as he hit the free agent market to show everyone that 2012 was a fluke. Well so far that is not the case when we look at Lincecum's numbers this year.

2013:
3W, 4.70 ERA, 1.42 Ratio, 56K in 53 2/3, 51 Hits Allowed, 25BB, 6HR Allowed, 9 Starts and only 3 of them are quality starts.

Notice that Lincecum at the one quarter pole is on pace to break his career high in walks & HR allowed in a given season. Also Lincecum like last year is allowing a hit per inning. Now Lincecum can get on a great streak still, 75% of the season is still ahead of us. But so far Roto owners should notice that Lincecum is looking like the pitcher from last year and his Cy Young days seem like a long time ago. Also remember Lincecum pitches in a pitchers ballpark in San Francisco. I think the analysis speaks for itself.

Follow me on Twitter @ TheNLKing

NL King - C.Lizza

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