Monday, February 26, 2018

The Fantasy Man's 2018 Fantasy Baseball OF Outfield Rankings

The Fantasy Man's 2018 Fantasy Baseball OF Outfielders Rankings

Not going to bore you with too much opinion in paragraph form here. There's a large group of breakout/sleeper potential as you scroll down.  I'm living between the low hype 30 year olds and that breakout/sleeper group.  So many good players up top, but if you believe in groups 3-5 (includes that small speed group), then you can load up on position scarcity and pitching up top the draft.

The Elite:

Mike Trout - Elite.
Bryce Harper - What happens when you're going for the richest contract in sports history?
Mookie Betts - Betts or Blackmon? Finkle and Einhorn?
Charlie Blackmon -  Blackmon or Betts? Einhorn and Finkle?
Giancarlo Stanton - Load up on power early - Fantasy Man specialty with a late first round pick
Aaron Judge - Grab 100 HR and 220 RBI with the wraparound pick in a 12 teamer, love it!
JD Martinez - Will be a beast in BOS and my back up if I miss on Stanton
George Springer - Can't go wrong here leading off for top offense considering his power/speed

Power/Speed or Power/Hype:

Andrew Benintendi - Love the .300+ BA upside but today he's a more expensive AJ Pollock
Cody Bellinger - Love the upside but feel like he peaked power wise as a rookie
AJ Pollock - If there's a year for a major breakout, this is it - nice power/speed/BA combo
Tommy Pham - Slightly younger and less injury prone AJ Pollock but is he real?
Christian Yelich - Lefty in a hitters park and potent lineup that likes to run, breakout incoming
Marcell Ozuna - Peaked last year and doesn't run but will still pad stats
Starling Marte - 5 cats if he can get 18+HR with 40SB
Lorenzo Cain - Cheaper version of Starling Marte with maybe slightly more power but less bags
Byron Buxton - Everyone on him as sleeper, nervous he's not consistent yet
Rhys Hoskins - Mega power, dual eligibility but same concern as Buxton - over hyped

There's a lot going on in this next group.  I'm intrigued with undervalued 30 year olds who seem to be pushed aside for better-hyped younger players. They're all in the middle of their prime, former hyped all stars and being passed over for guys like Tommy Pham (although he's 29), Rhys Hoskins, Byron Buxton and even Ronald Acuna. I get the upside of those guys but you can make a nice living loading up on these experienced players as the hyped players are being plucked off the board.

Undervalued Power 30 year olds:

Yoenis Cespedes - sort of forgotten a bit in drafts, Mets lineup quietly looking potent, like the value
Kris Davis - HR/RBI machine, low BA and SB but useful to pad power if you have BA elsewhere
Justin Upton - Big year least year, professional hitter, destroys lefties and he's only 30, undervalued
Jay Bruce - Same has Upton minus the lefties, also only 30 and undervalued
Andrew McCutchen - 25-30HR is fine but .275 BA and only 10 SB seems a little overvalued
Ryan Braun - Stock decreased, viewed as old but still capable of a really solid season
Adam Duvall - 40HR power, lighting quick bat but .240 type BA ( I do think there's BA upside here)
Adam Jones - Super automatic with stats, durable, nice floor of .270/25/80
Eric Thames -  Big power,

I put these two in its own tier because they should be drafted based on need.  I usually don't think of them in ADP terms.  I draft when I feel like I need to draft them depending on strategy and how my team is looking as I draft category-wise. If I load up on say Stanton/Judge or Stanton/Martinez end of 1st round, I'm looking for Gordon or Billy Ham sometime in the 6th -10th rounds.

Billy Hamilton - He'll cover half your SB's, get a .270+BA and he's so money
Dee Gordon - Hamilton with a .300 BA and dual eligibility

Upside? Breakouts? Undervalued? 

Yasiel Puig - Breakout incoming.  I'm just going to leave this here....
Ian Desmond - Injury risk keeps price down but obvious 25/20 in Coors
Ian Happ - They say he's special and low BA last year will keep price down, buying opportunity
Eduardo Nunez - Signed with Boston, will start year at 2B, appears fully healthy
Avisail Garcia - .300 BA with power upside on the cheap - upside wins championships
Nick Castellanos - Touted on many sleeper lists, break out possible but its no longer sneaky
Michael Conforto - Mets offense looking sneaky solid, should lead off, nice value here
Chris Taylor - Multi-positional, will lead off with .280/20/20+ ability
Kevin Kiermier - Big sleeper IMO and cheaper than Taylor for same or more output
Domingo Santana - Assuming he plays full time there's some nice low key BA/power upside here
Eddie Rosario - One of those guys you look last years stats and go... "Really? I better bump him up"
Manuel Margot - SD was dreadful last year, dude has talent, power and speed on the cheap
Trey Mancini - By this time next year he should be up in that second tier, good thing hype is low
Bradley Zimmer - Power/speed combo but likely comes with a low BA and some injury risk
Marwin Gonzalez - Multi-positional, 20/90 safe projection with a few steals
Ender Inciarte - Speedster who delivers solid BA and maybe a few dingers, lite Brett Gardner
Adam Eaton - BA, OBP, Runs, SB but dude is always hurt

Fill in your 4th and 5th OF spots with the ultimate post-hype players.   This seems to be my personal OF sleeper group.  I'll be surprised if we don't get at least 3 gems here:

Gregory Polanco - Stock is way down.  Darryl Strawberry upside or JD Drew downside?
Odubel Herrera - One of my favorite sleepers in all of fantasy baseball and sooo cheap
Nomar Mazara - He's only 22, fairly safe 20/90 floor, only way is up
Kyle Schwarber - K's a ton, power is legit, destroyed the minors, only 24 - gamble for cheap
Randal Grichuk - There's 40 HR upside in TOR, poor man's Kris Davis
Brett Gardner - Sneaky power, leads off for what 'might be' the greatest offensive lineup in history
David Dahl - Its simply health at this point, still young, 20/20 upside in Coors
Joc Pederson - If he plays mostly everyday there's some huge upside here
Steven Souza - Just traded to ARI and ballpark raises his appeal slightly
Max Kepler - Only 25, takes walks, makes contacts, doesn't K a ton and has power but bad vs lefties
Charlie Tilson - Just feels like a .270/12/25 type of player, Like a Kevin Kiermaier lite
Aaron Hicks - .270/20/10 seems like a floor to me, talent is there, will play CF every day
Mitch Haniger - Could be serviceable in all cats, deliver .280+ BA, maybe 20 HR if he stays healthy
Corey Dickerson - DFA'd last week tells me to pass for now but also creates buying opportunity
Nick Williams - Should play every day in 2017
Stephen Piscotty - Forgotten man, hurt all last year, good contact skills, 20HR power
Aaron Altherr - Should be 4th OF depending on where Hoskins/Santana play
Hunter Renfroe - Stock way down, mucho power bat but possible platoon, def stash
Michael Taylor - K's a ton, Robles in the wings but has power/speed combo
Lewis Brinson - Should be a bright spot in Miami, was highly touted last year and no hype this year
Matt Kemp - Like him most over the group below for 450AB, 25+HR
Scott Schebler - Low BA but power is legit

Rookies/Prospects you might want to think about and stash.  Acuna will be costly and rightfully so but the rest should be cheap stashes late in drafts...

Willie Calhoun - This guy rakes but apparently god awful withglove which limits opportunity
Ronald Acuna - Buy and stash, he's legit
Austin Hays - Looks like he's going to start year in the majors
Jesse Winker - Thought are he could unseat Billy Hamilton at lead off, is an OBP machine
Victor Robles - No room to play every day, stash candidate
Toescar Hernandez - Needs an injury
Clint Frazier - Dude can rake but needs a trade at this point
Eloy Jimenez - Only 21, 6'4" should develop power, needs time in AA and above

Fillers that have some name value, maybe start the year hot, reserve picks you can plug-in in a pinch or simply turn around and have a Jorge Posada-like Age 37 rebound year out of nowhere...

Carlos Gomez - Signed in Tampa, 5th OF or Bench stash for me
Carlos Gonzalez - Could be steal of the draft or just continue to free fall
Jose Bautista - Maybe 25HR+ pulling ball in Tampa?
Melky Cabrera - Nice serviceable player
Kole Calhoun - AL Only guys for me
David Peralta - Nice real life player but not enough stats
Mark Trumbo - still low BA power option, just no hype
Michael Brantley - Always hurt, worth a bench play
Dexter Fowler - Auto stats
Jackie Bradley - Feel like we're all holding on to that one good season
Yasmany Tomas - Is he going to play every day?

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