The Fantasy Man's 2018 Fantasy Baseball 1B First Basemen Rankings
Wow, so much deep. There's nothing new or fancy you're going to learn with this group. It's deep, so you don't have to stress about missing out on any of the top 5. I find myself gravitating towards Jose Abreu if he drops into 4th but I don't hesitate to pass as I'll scoop Eric Hosmer in the late 5th, 6th or possibly later.
Usually in these early mid rounds (5-9), everyone starting to pivot to pitching, grab a top catcher, maybe a closer run starts, reliable SB's are pretty much gone, etc. Thats why the unsexy picks like Hosmer, Miggy, Will Myers, and Joey Gallo may fall in some drafts. They all have a flaw of some kind but it's just fear in my opinion. Outside of Miggy, you have 3 fairly young players here you can lean on for 4+ categories while you build your star power at other positions.
Paul Goldschmidt - Top 1B, beyond elite, could pick as high as #3 or spend upwards of $50+
Freddie Freeman - Lefties in ATL is a thing and I believe he's worth of a late 1st round
Joey Votto - ADP like Votto late 1st, Freeman early 2nd so you can go either way
Anthony Rizzo - I bump him to 4th simply because Freeman/Votto better home parks
Cody Bellinger - Mucho hype, he's legit, will put up a big year, but not sure the value is there
Jose Abreu - Near elite, hitter park, slightly better lineup and potentially obtainable in the 4th rd
Will Myers - He's a 20SB guy! What else you need? 27 prime, 30hr+ power, upside depends on team
Eric Hosmer - 5 cat 1B and consistently falls to the 5th/6th rd maybe further
Edwin Encarnacion - Usual power, sweet lineup, BUT he's 35 and only 3 cats
Rhys Hoskins - Upside is great, hype is greater, but value is gone - same boat as Bellinger
Matt Olsen - Bellinger/Hoskins boat w/ slightly less hype and likely cheaper, mega power, meh BA
Miguel Cabrera - Risky but I like the chances of a bounce back, if he's healthy will be a value
Buster Posey - Dual eligibility play here but power is a question mark, otherwise I'd bump up a few
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If I whiff on the above, then I'm looking down in this next group. There's so many options that you shouldn't feel the need to overpay. 1B is filled with value goodness this year. Gallo will crush your BA but you can plan for that while you take advantage of his power, SB's and dual eligibility for example. Why pay for the hype of Rhys Hoskins who hasn't even played a full year yet when you have proven options you can get below for cheaper? Why over pay for Hoskins when you can get a proven Carlos Santana who makes better contact and will get you an OBP above .360 for much cheaper? Just a thought. I know everyone loves their prospects :)
Joey Gallo - BA crusher but you can plan for it and take advantage of power/speed
Carlos Santana - Moves to a hitters park, contact/OBP guy, I like the upside at 31
Nelson Cruz - DH only but you know what you're getting
Matt Carpenter - Some injury concern but the dual eligibility and the fact he's lofting the ball is nice
Justin Smoak - He's huge into the launch angles, barrels and all that - I like a repeat here for less
Greg Bird - I'm a yankee homer and this guy healthy and left in Yankee Stadium is gold
Justin Bour - Fear is Bour has no team around him, let him drop and scoop late for .280/30/90
Eric Thames - Classic hot start, crap middle, hot SEP 2017 - Fine late pick with dual eligibility
Ryan Zimmerman - Another launch angle guy so I like the power consistency here
Logan Morrison - Another launch angle guy with exceptional OBP skills
Next group here is just full of questions marks. I like these guys in my DH spot or utilize them at other positions if they have dual eligibility. They all have some kind of upside but come with risk, so lets look at both. Really like some kind of sneaky bounce backs from Chris Davis and the power, Ian Desmond back to 20/20, and Ryan Healy who was all the rage this time last year. You could sit back all draft and just wait for this group on the cheap to fill your 1B, CI and DH/U and feel totally fantastic about it.
Marwin Gonzalez - 5x eligibility, opportunity but was 23HR/90RBI real?
Trey Mancini - Nice upside here, fantasy experts breezing over this guy, sleeper alert for more HR
Ryan Healy - Cheap dual eligibility, last year was solid - traded to SEA, there's forgotten upside here
Chris Davis - He's only 31, everyone down on this guy, still has power in a hitters park, sooo cheap!!
Ian Desmond - The fear is last years injury history and ground ball rate, another late target for me
Hanley Ramirez - I love a bounce back here
Josh Bell - Only 25 with upside but BA potential looking weak with no SB
Brandon Belt - Hurt last year, only 29 prime, there's a surprise here if healthy
Ryan McMahon - My vote for ticket on Bellinger/Hoskins/Olson boat with no hype and 4 cat upside
Best of the rest here....
Mitch Moreland - Serviceable cheaper Brandon Belt
Mark Reynolds - Usually has a nice run at some point in season
Yuli Gurriel - Hits in the clutch, seems to get RBI's in bunches
Albert Pujols - Skills are diminishing but still maybe good for 25HR
Yonder Alonso - I don't know man, was the surge real? I'm not paying to find out w/ options above
Jose Martinez - Not a ton of power here
Adrian Gonzalez - Total crapshoot but might just hold spot for Dominic Smith
Matt Adams - Left power but likely a platoon
Joe Mauer - Stop it. Had that one good year
Dominic Smith - Has offensive upside but I think his defense is atrocious
CJ Cron - Power Al Only guy
Brad Miller - If healthy has some pop, launch angle guy
Chase Headley - Clubhouse guy, not sure how to score that in fantasy
Adam Lind - Is he still playing?
Brandon Moss - If you're drafting Moss you're doing something wrong